14 Podcast Predictions for 2021 from Industry Leaders
After the stress and turmoil of 2020, the question is: what’s next?
Every year around this time, we ask some of the smartest thinkers in podcasting an important question: “What’s next?” Often, the predictions are surprisingly accurate… although NOT surprisingly, no one predicted a global pandemic at this time last year.
So where is podcasting headed in 2021? We asked industry leaders for their predictions and identified four major themes:
- Consolidation & industry growth
- New content strategies
- Tech innovation in content, ads & distribution
- Diversity
The Business: consolidation & industry growth
1. Ad revenues hit $1 Billion US (but for real this time)
Last year I predicted that podcast ad revenue in the US would reach $1bn, ahead of expectations. Shortly after, the Coronavirus replied: “Oh yeah? I don’t think so”. In 2021, it will. We surpass 120 million monthly podcast listeners. At the last Infinite Dial survey, conducted right before the pandemic, Edison Research estimated 104 million Americans 12+ listened to podcasts every month. Several data points pointed to a slowdown in listening in the three months that followed; but I am not alone in observing an acceleration in the subsequent months.
— Hernan Lopez, Founder & CEO of Wondery
You know what’s cool? One BILLION dollars. Podcast ad revenues will finally surpass the $1 billion watermark in the US by the time the IAB study arrives midyear, with no ceiling in sight.
— Dave Zohrob, co-founder and CEO, Chartable.com
A global pandemic will grip the nation and stunt advertising growth. Just kidding. No I’m not.
Despite a likely continued global slowdown, podcast advertising will exceed one billion dollars in 2021.
— Tom Webster, SVP at Edison Research, co-host of The Freenoter
2. Consolidation continues at a rapid pace; major platforms and publishers grow even more powerful
If you dubbed 2020 the year of consolidation… Strap yourself in!
— Corey Layton, Head of Commercial Audio & Podcasts, ARN/iHeartPodcast Network Australia
Podcast M&A activity continues with a frenzy reminiscent of a game of chairs where the music could stop at any moment. More podcast companies continue to launch and advertising revenue continues to be outpaced by acquisition price tags. At some point, the industry runs out of things to buy and sell … in the distance, tumbleweeds.
— Sharon Taylor, Managing Director, Triton Digital
The bigger companies will continue to buy each other and become more and more powerful.
— Elsie Escobar, co-founder & co-host of She Podcasts, producer and co-host of The Feed + Community Expert at Libsyn
While we might not see original content from Apple, we will see big moves in podcasting through acquisition. Perhaps starting with Wondery.
— Shreya Sharma, Inside Podcasting Newsletter
Consolidation continues. We’ve seen acquisitions on both the content and technology sides of podcasting this year; we’ll see even more next year. Expect to see new acquirers enter the ring.
— Dave Zohrob, co-founder and CEO, Chartable.com
Consolidation will accelerate as audio continues to centralize around major platforms — that said, there will be marvelous opportunities for challengers to create curated communities based around like-minded audio consumers.
— Tom Webster, SVP at Edison Research, co-host of The Freenoter
Scale matters more than ever. The ability to market — and target — at scale will continue to become more attractive than ever to advertisers. As the medium gets increasingly competitive, the networks that have marketing and targeting capabilities at scale will continue to pull ahead. And on the advertising front, as marketers use podcasting as an alternative to traditional digital advertising, the biggest podcasters can now enable marketers to target at scale.
— Bob Pittman, Chairman and CEO of iHeartMedia Inc.
Pure-play podcast networks are going to have to start making major investments in advertising, brand-building, and marketing for reach. The leading broadcast radio players in the podcast space have a tremendous cross-promotion advantage, and failing to respond to that challenge will be risky in 2021
— Tom Webster, SVP at Edison Research, co-host of The Freenoter
Podcast-listening apps that don’t have either a) meaningful market share or b) meaningful original IP will fold.
— Shira Atkins, Co-founder, WMN Media
Pacific Content’s Take:
To Sharon Taylor’s point, soon it might be a question of what companies are left to buy. The biggest players continue to buy strategically to build a full stack ecosystem. Watch for podcast services companies — measurement, hosting, podcast apps — to be strategic acquisitions for content companies, and for content creators with valuable podcast I.P. to be of value to tech companies.
3. Spotify continues its ascent, Amazon becomes a major player in the platform wars, and Apple asserts itself
Spotify will either overtake or have equal share of the listener’s ear as Apple, in 2021.
— Shreya Sharma, Inside Podcasting Newsletter
Spotify surges. Spotify has been expanding their podcast listener base for awhile now; at Chartable we believe that their listener activity is underreported by most outlets. Spotify’s execution has been aggressive and nearly flawless — it’ll be exciting to see how they innovate and spur others to do the same.
— Dave Zohrob, co-founder and CEO, Chartable.com
Amazon will emerge as a force in the space.
— Yale Yee, Founding Partner, Telos Advisors
In 2021, we’ll see continued consolidation, with the most interesting plays coming from Apple and Amazon. Once Amazon is armed with a hosting platform and in-house content and production capabilities, they’ll be a meaningful contender in the platform wars. They’ve hired really well thus far and are obviously positioned incredibly well to bring new listeners into the space and influence listening habits.
— Shira Atkins, Co-founder, WMN Media
Closed vs Open. As Spotify expands their suite of exclusive content, and others like Amazon and Apple enter the fray, we’ll begin to see more competition between closed platforms and the open RSS-based ecosystem. I believe the open ecosystem can continue to thrive; competition is healthy, after all. But the open ecosystem will need to continue to innovate as an industry to serve listeners, creators, and advertisers well.
— Dave Zohrob, co-founder and CEO, Chartable.com
Apple wakes up — While use of Apple Podcasts is still growing, because the whole podcast ecosystem is growing, Apple’s market share is declining. I have a feeling that 2021 — or maybe even the dying gasps of 2020 — might be the time when Apple does something about that. They’ve made some interesting hires recently; particularly RadioPublic’s Jake Shapiro. What’s to come: some form of creator monetisation, perhaps (something Shapiro has experience in)? With the world’s most successful app store, they’re uniquely placed for that.
— James Cridland, Editor, Podnews
Pacific Content’s Take:
After another big year of acquisitions and market share growth, Spotify has considerable momentum heading into 2021. Want to see more of where they might be heading and the values of a closed audio ecosystem? This was one of our favourite podcast interviews of 2020 — Gustav Söderström, chief R&D officer at Spotify, on the a16z podcast.
And seeing Amazon and SiriusXM aggressively moving forward in podcasting in 2020, will 2021 be the year that Apple, the 800-pound industry gorilla, makes some major podcasting headlines, too?
4. Indie power
I expect 2021 to be filled with newcomers to podcasting who decided to take advantage of downtime during the pandemic to launch a podcast. This, along with the determination of many of us to keep producing in less than ideal recording situations, is going to probably lead to a swell of podcasts with less than ideal sound quality. A creator’s dedication to getting the sound right, even when interviewees are recording themselves at home and studios are hard to come by, will really separate them from the rest in 2021.
— Martina Castro, Founder & CEO, Adonde Media
I think the podcasts that will really break through in 2021 will be ones that don’t necessarily start with huge network backing. Meaning, that some more “sleeper” shows will end up seemingly coming out of nowhere, from Big Podcast’s perspective. These types of sleeper shows start with deeply engaged, maybe initially niche, followings, that rise to the top of the podcast zeitgeist (zeitpodgeist) for the right reasons. What are the right reasons? Well, since I’m in the prediction business at the moment, I’ll tell ya: legitimate relationships will be at the center of these podcasts, the actual human charisma that comes from these relationships will serve as the engines that drive the shows, the sincere engagement with fans will lead to the organic growth of fan communities that will bubble up around these sorts of shows. These sleeper shows will make you feel like you’ve joined a club, not just that you’re listening to a podcast.
— Laura Mayer, Co-Founder, Three Uncanny Four
Podcasters that have started from scratch, who are self taught, built their own vibrant communities, and not only have proof of concept, but are making money will move away from the industry as it stands. These independent podcasters will continue to find ways to get funded that are outside of mainstream media and entertainment practices, and will create collaborations with other industries and sectors that are adjacent to their content that are looking to serve the same audience. Those podcast properties will become more and more valuable beyond media+entertainment.
— Elsie Escobar, co-founder & co-host of She Podcasts, producer and co-host of The Feed + Community Expert at Libsyn
2021 Will Be a Big Year for “Medium” Podcasting. While headlines track every move of “Big Podcasting” this coming year, there will be a groundswell of movement among the middle tier in our industry. Hundreds if not thousands of creators with modest audiences and high growth potential will carve their path forward as they weigh the many opportunities in front of them… Do they maintain independence and control; merge with similarly sized/aligned groups; join a larger podcast network or sales rep firm to accelerate their growth and monetization goals? Ultimately, how these creators navigate in the shadows of Big Podcasting may prove more advantageous than ever before.
— Dane Cardiel, Sales Director, Simplecast
More independent podcast companies will merge in order to compete with bigger producers like Spotify and iHeart. There is a lot to be gained by not signing with a big company and the lure of a smaller company with more personal attention is something more mid-sized podcasters will gravitate towards. Many have expressed to me the lack of attention they get from the bigger companies as they focus on their celebrity and big-name podcasts. Small and medium companies still can’t compete with access to sales but can with shared resources and merging of similar podcast verticals.
— Matty Staudt, President of Jam Street Media, www.jamstreetmedia.com
5. Legacy Latecomers Finally Hop on the Bandwagon
Legacy media companies who aren’t yet exploring audio will all have podcasts by the end of 2021.
— Shira Atkins, Co-founder, WMN Media
The next battleground will be in content as audio players look to build on their lead and further distinguish themselves from each other. Traditional media companies which have been participating under the radar will become major players.
— Yale Yee, Founding Partner, Telos Advisors
Record labels will make continued investments in the industry — their influence has been underestimated.
— Dave Zohrob, co-founder and CEO, Chartable.com
Whether it is to add another touch point for programming, a retention play for the platform, or a way to test out programming in audio first, we’ll see a lot more VOD players add podcasts onto their platform.
— Christy Mirabal, VP of Marketing, Podcasting, Sony
Pacific Content’s Take:
We still see a lot of major media companies sitting on the digital/podcasting sidelines, focusing solely on protecting their existing traditional business. The smart ones are moving aggressively into non-terrestrial content and distribution, but COVID has accelerated the decline of traditional media and there are going to be more than a few dinosaurs that can’t adapt in time to won’t survive.
6. Diversity of Revenue Streams Becomes Post-COVID Priority
More companies look to diversify. This year, 25% of Wondery’s revenue is coming from TV, audio and book licensing, as well as our Direct-To-Consumer segment, Wondery+. More companies and independent podcasters will continue to embrace new revenue streams.
— Hernan Lopez, Founder & CEO of Wondery
Continued interest and growth in TV and film IP: Podcasts will of course continue to grow as a strong source of IP for TV and film, especially coming out of a quarantine year when so many A-lister actors and producers familiarized themselves with the podcast medium even more (with many of them — like Will Ferrell and Shonda Rimes — jumping in and starting to executive produce entire slates).
— Conal Byrne, President of the iHeartPodcast Network at iHeartMedia
Every movie and TV production company will either launch their own podcast divisions or seek out current podcast production companies to create podcasts with their current IP in order to test the waters with them before committing to the larger budgets that TV and Movies require. COVID has made producing TV and Movies harder and more expensive and podcasts are the perfect lower-cost alternative.
— Matty Staudt, President of Jam Street Media, www.jamstreetmedia.com
The pandemic taught many podcasters what a few already knew: advertising and paid speaking (two common revenue drivers for public personalities and podcasters) are rather rickety business models. A far sturdier foundation is to create revenue-generating products built directly for the audience… So in 2021, expect a greater number of shows to ditch the over-reliance on ads, and move paid speaking from Must-Book to Nice-to-Have, and instead focus on things built for their listeners to go deeper: membership groups, courses and other online education, paid subscriptions (e.g. newsletters, exclusive episodes), merchandise, and more.
— Jay Acunzo, Founder, Marketing Showrunners
There’s a trend we’re seeing — and contributing to — at both Slate and Supporting Cast: paywalled podcasts that rely on the open ecosystem. In 2020, Slate did some COVID-inspired experimentation with paywalling podcasts with very promising results. Ben Thompson and John Gruber did it with Dithering. And a number of Supporting Cast clients have moved to a premium-first model and are converting as much as 20% of their audience, which means they’re far exceeding what they generated in revenue from advertising alone, even before the pandemic. This isn’t the well established Patreon/Slate Plus/etc. membership model with ad-free shows and bonus content — it’s about taking the majority of the show and making it available only to paying subscribers to drive 5–10x as many conversions. In 2021, this strategy moves from the edges of the podcast ecosystem to its core.
— David Stern, VP, Slate & Founder, Supporting Cast
Pacific Content’s Take:
Much like an investment portfolio, diversification of revenue streams is never a bad strategy. If we learned anything from 2020, it’s to be prepared for the unexpected and having all your revenue eggs in one basket has never felt more risky.
New Content Strategies
7. Audiences and creators both look to turn the corner after 2020
A break from News — With the US election over, Trump out of office, and the pandemic winding down, I think that listeners will be in need of a break from the anxiety-inducing horrorshow that has been 2020. News, which has been the most popular genre (on iTunes anyway), might decline or at least give up some market share to History, Fiction, Arts, Society and Culture… Comedy may also decline, no longer needed as a therapeutic escape from our all too serious reality. I mean, there’s no way that 2021 can be any worse. Right!?
— Chris Oke, Senior Producer, CBC Podcasts
Nostalgia has pulled us into its warm embrace. Podcasts like You’re Wrong About, Lost Notes and The Memory Palace have made listeners long for times and places they didn’t know they were missing (in some cases these podcasts have also turned ‘official’ histories on their heads). I’m a bit wary of the nationalist narratives that sometimes grow out of looking back at a “better time,” but with the turbulence of 2020 and a future that’s very much unwritten, the comfort and familiarity of the past will soothe us in the year to come.
— Tina Verma, Senior Producer, CBC Podcasts
Politics and News will see losses in listening. As listeners work their way out of the COVID Pandemic and the Trump years, they will want more distraction and less news and politics. I think this will pave the way for even more daily entertainment and comedy podcasts.
— Matty Staudt, President of Jam Street Media, www.jamstreetmedia.com
Call it PTSD Podcasting — Scripted or Unscripted, a new genre (and perhaps a big hit or two) in 2021 will be character-driven narrative series that tap into the human, very personal toll of the last year. And I’m not just talking about the pandemic. Breakups, broken hearts, seismic shifts in culture, divided families, These series will tap into personal or collective experiences of broken hearts, fractured personal fault lines as well as a longing to come out the other side. (We’re already piloting scripted concepts on this theme!)
— Arif Noorani, Executive Producer, CBC Podcasts
Kids content will take a leap forward. This has been slowly building momentum for a while now, and 2021 may just be the year kids podcasts really make a splash. A lot of people are now putting serious time & resources into figuring out how to make great podcasts for kids, and I think we’re going to start to see the fruits of that investment soon.
We’re also going to see multiple big fiction hits. Multiple people predict that each new year will be the “Year of Fiction” for podcasts, and it never really quite hits the tipping point. But when you look at all of the great fiction that has come out in the last 18 months or so, consider the increasing appetite for investment in that area, and look at all of the serious Hollywood players getting involved from every angle, it’s hard not to see fiction podcasts finally hitting that tipping point very soon.
— Alia Tavakolian, Co-Founder & Chief Content Officer, Spoke Media
Pacific Content’s Take:
We all need a break from everything 2020, including a relentlessly depressing and oppressive news cycle. Please let 2021 be the Hygge Year of Podcasting.
8. Get Shorty — TikTok Drives Short-Form Audio Content
The rise of TikTok short-form content will influence podcasts in 2021 as microcasts take hold, providing hyper short content to fill your ears in micro-moments across the day.
— Corey Layton, Head of Commercial Audio & Podcasts, ARN/iHeartPodcast Network Australia
Today, podcasting is usually very predictable and formatted in the way that episodes are published (on a set time, every day or week). At the end of the day, a podcast RSS feed is just that — a feed of content, that a creator should publish into whenever he or she feels like it. With this in mind, we will potentially see more podcasters publishing episodes that feel more like quick messages — or, to the point, audiosocial media posts — for their fans, multiple times a day.
— Conal Byrne, President of the iHeartPodcast Network at iHeartMedia
Short and Sweet. We need comfort. We need wisdom. We need laughs. And we’re going to get it in short bursts. Podcasts that speak to our new routines — midday walks, well-intentioned workouts, baking something other than sourdough — these will be the gaps that podcasters fill with habit-forming, to-the-point podcasts in 2021.
— Tina Verma, Senior Producer, CBC Podcasts
Pacific Content’s Take:
TikTok has been the breakout platform of 2020. The app design, the algorithm, the creator tools, the short video constraints, and the boundless creativity of the community have all had a huge impact on culture this year. There is no audio equivalent of TikTok… yet. It feels inevitable.
One of our favorite audio innovations of 2020 was Sam Harris’ Moments feature inside the Waking Up app — using app notifications, it randomly gives you 1-minute pieces of wisdom at strategic moments during the day.
We’ve been fans of short-form audio for too long and we’re hoping to see major growth in audio messages, social audio, micropods, micro-moments or whatever else you want to call them.
9. Definition of “Podcast” is Challenged as Creators Experiment with Format
In 2021 we are working to build on the challenges and opportunities we faced in 2020.. Remote production (with great results), changing habits: commute, etc but establishing new norms around consumption that likely will stick and further develop in post-COVID return to “normalcy” which means different listening and behavior patterns which may lend itself to new formats getting traction.
— Courtney William Holt, Global Head, Spotify Studios
Entirely! New! Sounding! Stuff!: This is a selfish prediction because this is the type of show I want to hear more of. I think we’re ripe for new formats, new types of hosts, new types of storytelling, new types of fan engagement with podcasts — all of which will be exciting and fresh and needed. Back in the Mesolithic era of podcasting, when I first listened to Start Up season one, I was so distracted by what felt like a new kind of real-time, reality radio that I literally stepped on a rake like a cartoon character (I was briefly the superintendent of my apartment building, hence the rake, but that’s a different story). I want more stepping on rake moments. I strongly believe that with the continual support of diverse voices — that are empowered to both make, commission, and market podcasts— that we all as **ahem** industry leaders **ahem** have a responsibility to continue amplifying — there will be many more (figurative) stepping on rake moments to come in 2021.
— Laura Mayer, Co-Founder, Three Uncanny Four
The conceptual boundaries of “podcast” will continue to expand beyond the confines of an RSS, and beyond the genres we know all too well. This will be pioneered most fruitfully in the corporate world and in the publishing world. For corporations, audio is a comms tool, and “podcast” is mere packaging. For publishing, the line between audiobooks and podcasts will continue to blur, and publishers will explore podcast-companions for multiple uses: marketing, curricula, engagement, monetization.
— Shira Atkins, Co-founder, WMN Media
Everything old is new again. Just as Netflix has launched a linear TV channel in France, expect to see podcasts in long and micro form become available in linear radio channels and music streams. Both publishers and platforms will combine to aid trial, content discovery and overcome the tyranny of choice.
— Corey Layton, Head of Commercial Audio & Podcasts, ARN/iHeartPodcast Network Australia
Live theatre — or live performances of any kind — aren’t coming back anytime soon. So you’re going to see creators dig deeper into audio fiction to fill that void in 2021. As producers and talent become increasingly comfortable working remotely, we’ll hear podcasts that are able to capture the energy of actors playing off one another, letting listeners truly immerse themselves in fantasy worlds, other people’s intimate lives, and everything in between.
— Tina Verma, Senior Producer, CBC Podcasts
Podcasting will continue to expand across social and video: …I think we will see podcasts expanding across social and video with these platforms (like YouTube and Facebook) developing audio-centric products to listen to podcasts.
— Conal Byrne President of the iHeartPodcat Network at iHeartMedia
Mass Market vs Premium Quality (aka Dateline vs Serial Productions, or How to Get Away with Murder vs Broadchurch)- Used to be the bulk of new audience hits came from public media-adjacent podcast houses. But if Podtrac’s list of the most downloaded 25 podcasts in the latter half of 2020 is a sign of the future, look out for an ecosystem that, yes, will contain the HBOs of podcasting but in equal measure (or more) truckloads of series influenced by commercial broadcasting and it’s storytelling tropes. The plus side is that hopefully opens the door to bigger audiences but hopefully premium quality work doesn’t get lost in the sea.
— Arif Noorani, Executive Producer, CBC Podcasts
Pacific Content’s Take:
YES! YES! YES! We want new voices. We want new ideas. We want new formats. We want to see creators think beyond the current boundaries of the medium. We want things that have never existed as a podcast — that could only exist in audio — to be invented, too. (We want it all!)
Tech innovation in content, ads, & distribution
10. Tech Drives Increased Personalization and Localization
With the continued expansion of tech and capabilities in dynamic audio insertion, we’ll see publishers and content creators begin wielding the tool for more than merely ad delivery. The audio stream itself will begin to see personalization too, delivering high fidelity content to devices that support it, with audio formats personalized for the hardware that’s delivering it. As the tech for dynamic content evolves, creative experiments will abound.
— Brad Smith, Founder & CEO, Simplecast
As advertising targeting surges in sophistication, creators will adapt their content accordingly. While geo-targeted, dynamic insertion ad tech has been embraced by the likes of NPR’s Consider This (hat tip Al Roker), personalisation well beyond location data is next. Based on a listener’s demographic and interest profile, podcasts will individualise aspects of content. For instance, broad news podcasts will soon skew bulletins to better cater to a sports fan, political junkie, or tech geek.
— Corey Layton, Head of Commercial Audio & Podcasts, ARN/iHeartPodcast Network Australia
In 2021, podcasting will start to segment itself beyond clear genre categories — sports, politics, fiction — into consumer-driven categories based on editorial composition, akin to how book publishing organizes itself. I expect that someone will codify the segments into the equivalent of ‘literary fiction’ ‘mass-market fiction’ ‘literary nonfiction’ ‘mass-market nonfiction’ and a host of others.
— Juleyka Lantigua-Williams, CEO, Lantigua Williams & Co.
New tags for podcasts — Under the stewardship of Dave Jones and Adam Curry, The Podcast Index has made great strides in new podcast tags, which have the possibility of significantly enhancing the listener experience. Podcast hosts and apps had better keep up: lest they be seen as not wanting to improve the space.
— James Cridland, Editor, Podnews
In light of the importance of reaching differentiated audiences around COVID-19 and the US’ presidential election, publishers will prioritize the ability to localize certain elements of their content strategy, much like we recently saw from NPR. However, we won’t see it limited to delivering a geographically localized section of an episode — we’ll see it expand, even delivering content in different dialects and languages, dynamically.
— Brad Smith, Founder & CEO, Simplecast
Contextualization of content will gain major focus for ad targeting at scale. Every podcast has content, and that content can be transcribed and contextualized and then targeted. But less than half of all podcast downloads come from IP addresses that can be resolved to a household, let alone an individual. There’s a massive brand safety industry in digital media that can directly apply to transcribed podcasts, opening the doors to substantially larger budgets in podcast advertising.
— Bryan Barletta, Editor, Sounds Profitable
Enterprise-Level Technologies Trickle Down. In 2021, professional creators will have access to more advanced (and affordable) solutions that could greatly impact their podcast businesses. It will be crucial for these creators to decide which of these new solutions are most useful and quickly work them into their existing workflows. If ever there was a time to become a student of our industry — no matter how long you’ve been podcasting — 2021 will reward those willing to learn, re-learn, and adapt, never too afraid to ask the “stupid questions” (which there are none!).
— Dane Cardiel, Sales Director, Simplecast
User privacy, which has taken the center stage in all other digital mediums, will be taken more seriously. Today, each of the actors in the podcast chain (Podcast player, analytics, host, attribution) are all operating as islands. Some discard any information received from countries or states with privacy laws, while others assume that receiving the data implies consent. The podcast players themselves (Apple, Spotify, Google, Amazon, etc) will be held responsible for passing on actual user consent down the line.
— Bryan Barletta, Editor, Sounds Profitable
Privacy progression. CCPA and CPRA will put pressure on platforms, publishers, and advertisers to comply with new and existing regulations. Expect to see innovation across vendors here to ensure both listener privacy and advertiser happiness.
— Dave Zohrob, co-founder and CEO, Chartable.com
11. Ad Tech Evolves… and So Do Ad Strategies and Ad Formats
Podcast networks are (hopefully) going to start to push back on low-CPM, reused-from-broadcast-radio spots. According to our latest Super Listeners 2020 study, podcasting’s best customers are noticing both the quantity of ads and the length of ad breaks going up, and these trends could have a negative impact on the effectiveness of podcast ads if left unchecked.
— Tom Webster, SVP at Edison Research, co-host of The Freenoter
Post-roll ads will, hopefully, be a thing of the past. More and more studies have proven that mid-roll host read ads are where it’s at, so the industry will move towards them.
— Shreya Sharma, Inside Podcasting Newsletter
Unlocking ad-tech with true geotargeting capabilities will radically transform the space, placing the power in the hands of the large platforms and away from the independent sellers. That said, advertisers will continue to flock to content they feel their brands meaningfully align with — seeking quality over scale, when they can.
— Shira Atkins, Co-founder, WMN Media
Podcasting is multilingual and global, but the listening experience is still siloed by language and country. In 2021, I expect platforms to catch up to how people are listening and enhance our ability to not only listen to but also discover podcasts across languages and regions with more ease and fluidity.
— Martina Castro, Founder & CEO, Adonde Media
With tier-one brands more prevalent in podcasts, expect to see the dominance of attribution expand beyond online clicks into real-world path to purchase. Ad targeting too will increase in sophistication as individuals’ demographics, interests and contextual placement become commonplace. As Nielsen and Stitcher have re-affirmed however, it’s essential to weave enhanced targeting and platform-specific creative together. The alternative — a race to the bottom with creative that jars the listening experience — will lead to the medium’s demise.
— Corey Layton, Head of Commercial Audio & Podcasts, ARN/iHeartPodcast Network Australia
We’ll enter the beginning phases of creating a new type of ad. Something between host and announcer read. Whether through pure technology or brilliant creative storytelling, we’ll break ground on that third option. I’m looking forward to seeing all the failures along the way, so we can learn from them.
— Bryan Barletta, Editor, Sounds Profitable
Podcasting advertising data has come a long way in the past two years and will continue to advance in 2021 as more and more Fortune 500 brands jump into the medium. That means sophisticated audience targeting, geo-targeting and attribution, with dynamic insertion (although still host-read) across all shows.
— Bob Pittman, Chairman and CEO of iHeartMedia Inc.
We are going to start to see more data on podcasting’s place in multi-channel campaign execution — not just as a singular marketing channel.
— Tom Webster, SVP at Edison Research, co-host of The Freenoter
Putting Podcast Tech on the (Road)map. For many larger publishers and brands over the last few years, podcasting has existed in somewhat of a trial period favoring a “wait and see” approach to the small-to-moderate investments they’ve made to test the waters. For those who can now confidently articulate the value on-demand audio brings to their business, we’ll see 2021 become a year of intent roadmap planning to outline what larger tech investments are needed to expand podcasting’s impact on their owned and operated platforms — shifting how and where a podcast gets consumed, away from traditional listening channels and to their O&O platforms directly.
— Dane Cardiel, Sales Director, Simplecast
With the continued expansion of tech and capabilities in dynamic audio insertion, we’ll see publishers and content creators begin wielding the tool for more than merely ad delivery. The audio stream itself will begin to see personalization too, delivering high fidelity content to devices that support it, with audio formats personalized for the hardware that’s delivering it. As the tech for dynamic content evolves, creative experiments will abound.
— Brad Smith, Founder & CEO, Simplecast
Pacific Content’s Take:
Technology is changing podcast advertising. Let’s make sure we keep in mind the lessons learned from other media platforms. Why do DVRs exist? To be in control of our own media consumption — it’s not just to watch what we want when we want — it’s to be able to skip the stuff we don’t want, too. Why do people change radio stations? Whether it’s a song or ad block, people leave because of things they don’t like. So let’s make sure that no matter what type of advertising technology we use, we continue to respect the time and attention of our listeners. Make the ads something people enjoy listening to and/or something that creates value for listeners. Podcast apps have skip buttons — let’s all do our part to make sure they are never used.
Diversity
12. Industry Doubles Down on Diversity
Podcasting diversity will continue to expand. As podcasting’s reach continues to expand, it will become more inclusive as more diverse creators and content emerge to serve this increasingly broader audience. In 2020, this started to shift dramatically toward a much more diverse medium with an increase of female and diverse creators in the space and launches like The Black Effect Podcast Network, majority-owned by leading media personality Charlamagne the God, with 100% Black staff and more than 20 new shows already live or in development for 2021, and a slate of Spanish-language and Hispanic-focused podcasts with Enrique Santos. This kind of initiative will continue to widen both the podcast creator pool and listener base, opening up the medium not only to diverse, great new stories — but huge new advertising dollars as well.
— Bob Pittman, Chairman and CEO of iHeartMedia Inc.
We’re going to see a lot more successful podcasts from women of color.
I think people are finally starting to invest in women of color in a real way, and I think we’re going to see a lot of really great new shows get the platform they deserve. There is such a wealth of brilliant creative talent out there, and I’m looking forward to seeing some established voices get their due and watching some new voices emerge.
— Alia Tavakolian, Co-Founder & Chief Content Officer, Spoke Media
#PodcastsSoWhite — I think we’ll get a better idea of the impact of the most recent BLM-inspired reckoning with race in podcasting this coming year. Whether it’s seen in projects that were green lit after the protests this summer, recent hires, or long-time producers who are newly emboldened, I think that producers of colour, especially those who are Black or Indigenous, will continue to make some of the most unique, exciting and important work in the coming year. And podcasting will be so much better for it.
— Chris Oke, Senior Producer, CBC Podcasts
Don’t You Forget About Me — This is a prediction where we have some control over the direction. George Floyd, Black Lives Matter led to sorely needed conversations about race, representation and podcasting. Kudos to Radiolab and Invisibilia for expanding their host talent pool. If your organization hasn’t signed on to the Equality in Audio Pact, consider doing so. And putting its recommendations into practice (for example, no all-White podcast panels that don’t reflect the cities and countries we live in). Whether we continue this vital work (trust me, it will lead to varied and more interesting programming), or let these initiatives gather dust, calls for accountability will continue.
— Arif Noorani, Executive Producer, CBC Podcasts
In podcasting, as in so many areas, Brazil is a bit of an island nation within the Americas — in no small part due to the evident language barrier. Nevertheless, English-language programs, both in the original and in dubbed versions, have found something of a foothold in Brazil. This may be more wishful thinking than prediction, but 2021 may usher in more bi- and tri-lingual reporting projects, start to get more Brazilian voices and stories heard outside Brazil, and strengthen and diversify content that’s translated and/or adapted into Portuguese.
— Paula Scarpin, Creative Director, Radio Novelo
Pacific Content’s take:
The events of this year have pushed a lot of important, long-overdue conversations around race, diversity, and inclusion to the forefront. We hope this dialogue continues to happen and companies and stakeholders across the industry — ourselves included — build on the momentum of this year and continue agitating for permanent change well into 2021 and beyond. Podcasting, like other media, is thankfully becoming more diverse as efforts are made to bring a greater range of voices and perspectives to the center. The question is what are creators and publishers going to do to accelerate and support this change, and what accountability are they going to shoulder themselves in the push for racial equality and social justice.
13. Measurement Education Should Be A 2021 Priority
I really hope we all start to pay more attention to the listen through rate as the true gold standard for measuring podcast success and growth. When I make the case for this to my podcast friends, I explain that in podcasting the download is the King in chess and the listen through rate is the Queen: one is a status symbol with limited mobility that has to be protected at all cost, the other is the most powerful piece on the board with complete domain.
— Juleyka Lantigua-Williams, CEO, Lantigua Williams & Co.
More dodgy stats — We’re guaranteed to see data from market research companies that confuses “total plays” with “total users”, or “podcasts” with “YouTube”. We’ll see people still trying to claim that Apple Podcasts (which automatically downloads episodes even if you don’t listen to them) are the same numbers as Google Podcasts or Spotify (which don’t download podcasts unless you really, really try). We’ll still see some companies press-release their numbers on the Apple Podcasts chart, even though it isn’t a chart. Somewhere, far far away, a podcast newsletter editor will hold his head in his hands.
— James Cridland, Editor, Podnews
Pacific Content’s Take:
Two thumbs up for Juleyka’s King & Queen analogy. We agree that listen through rates are the most important success measurement for a podcast. We are also big proponents of ongoing podcast education as a path to industry growth. There are still too many marketers, advertisers, and creators who aren’t aware of what can and can’t be measured in podcasting, who don’t know that attribution tools like Chartable and Podsights exist, and are missing major opportunities in our medium as a result.
14. Global growth
Spanish-language podcasts will bring a powerful new audience to podcasts — in Latin America and the US.
— Juleyka Lantigua-Williams, CEO, Lantigua Williams & Co.
I predict that in 2021, the strength of podcaster communities in emerging markets will determine how quickly they are able to professionalize and monetize their work. I am already seeing such incredible enthusiasm for festivals and skill-sharing in Latin America and across Africa to unite creators and inspire them to collaborate. I expect more of that spirit in 2021 will cause those markets to grow faster than anyone imagined.
— Martina Castro, Founder & CEO, Adonde Media
We’re seeing excellent content from outside of the US. This trend will continue with Spanish becoming one of the premiere languages people produce and host podcasts in.
— Shreya Sharma, Inside Podcasting Newsletter
Keep your eye on regions outside of the US for strong listener and revenue growth. These are still relatively nascent markets but we’ll see some big jumps in numbers over 2021 as podcasting matures, publishers find formats that appeal to their large/diverse audiences, programmatic use increases and partnerships are made.
— Sharon Taylor, Managing Director, Triton Digital
Every year discovery seems to come up as a topic where there is a need for more efforts there. As the global podcast library increases, this need factors more than ever. I believe discovery is a constant evolving opportunity and certainly we are excited to continue to innovate here.
I am excited by the continued scale of podcasts around the globe and we have seen exciting developments all across Europe and Asia and while some markets are not as mature as others, the growth is fantastic to see as creators invest in using pod as a way to build audience, communicate and entertain!
— Courtney William Holt, Global Head, Spotify Studios
There will be a significant boost in listenership from non-English speaking markets as international content creators produce better quality podcasts, brands start to take more of an interest in advertising to these audiences, and TV networks search for original content they can adapt from popular podcasts. We expect podcast listenership in the Middle East and North Africa to double from its current-documented 8m+ to more than 16m listeners in 2021. Looking beyond 2021, we believe in the next 5 years the Middle East and North Africa will top global listener penetration for podcasts, just like we top global usage for Facebook, Snapchat, and Youtube.
— Hebah Fisher, Co-founder & CEO, Kerning Cultures Network
To our joy and some surprise, 2020 was that breakthrough year for narrative podcasts in Brazil, with traditional media outlets investing heavily and multiple production companies releasing sophisticated series that made habitual listeners more demanding and brought many more into the fold. I predict that 2021 will consolidate that trend of professionalization in markets where demand has grown faster than infrastructure, helping to further decentralize podcast production worldwide.
— Paula Scarpin, Creative Director, Radio Novelo
What do you think of this year’s predictions? Did our panel of experts and leaders miss any big ones? Anything you disagree with?
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