Thinking about alternative futures…
Australia’s prospects in a Trump resurrection
Sarah doesn’t have a political bone in her body. She is a nice person but all she can talk about is her work or the antics of her friends.
That’s not me talking. It’s Toni. We both like Sarah but neither of us can hold a deep conversation with her, especially over a topic that both of us are interested in — geopolitics and geostrategy. It is that which is what we are discussing this morning in that little cafe that goes by the quaint name of le Cafe, up by the park on Ann Street.
I know Toni studied international politics at university. So did I, but only at a basic level. She is far more cluey about it than I am and I learn much by discussing global developments with her. My guess is that one day she is destined to work with one of those strategic thinktanks.
Over croissants and coffee, Toni explains how the possibility of Trump returning to the presidency could reshape not only the political structure of the United States but that of much of the Western world. I can only agree and add that a second Trump presidency would only deepen the chasm that has fractured what was once a more or less unified democracy, a chasm widened by the recent decisions of the US Supreme Court which now acts like a legal insurgency taking control over government policy.
The possibility of Trump resurrected raises serious questions about the future of Australia’s relationship with the US and American influence here, although I don’t foresee any official rupture, I add. Politicians in both countries are likely to act as if there is no change happening although the public interested in these things would know otherwise.
But Trump resurrected does potentially affect our alliance with the US as well as America’s role in our region, Toni says. That won’t be something that happens immediately. It will unfold over time. The US-Australia alliance will likely continue, however a Trump presidency would trigger uncertainty and distrust about US intentions and about its reliability as an ally, especially if Trump withdraws support for Ukraine and especially if he weakens NATO or withdraws from the alliance. That would shatter trust in America not only in Europe but worldwide and could foreshadow America’s decline to second-class nation status.
Include Australia in that distrust, I interject. While the government would utter platitudes, withdrawal of support would likely be seen by a fair portion of the public as betrayal, and the US’ reputation would be trashed in our region as well as in Europe. Sure, politicians won’t say that publicly but public sentiment would.
So, how would Australia navigate this scenario?
I launch into speculation to respond to Toni’s question. Embolden by the end of US Ukraine/NATO support and what would look like US isolationism and the evident friendliness of Trump towards Russia, China might invade Taiwan, throwing the region into turmoil. North Korea could take advantage of the situation by launching an attack on South Korea. Would the US support those allies or renege on its commitments?
A geostrategic niche has been opening in the Western Pacific with the uncertainty generated the US’ policy of strategic ambiguity, over whether it would defend Taiwan. Uncertainty creates the niche and the opportunity for China, especially, to fill it. Even though Russia is the weaker power in the region we see it trying to reassert its presence through the joint Russian and Chinese naval exercises in the Western Pacific this year and their signalling to Washington of military cooperation with their combined bomber fly-by close to the Alaskan coast this month.
And the outcome of an America vacillating over its commitments, Toni asks? South Korea could acquire nuclear weapons as defence against a nuclear-armed North Korea and Japan could do the same against China. Our government might not broach that possibility, however it has currency among influential geopolitical thinkers here.
Nukes are being seen as a way to counter aggressive moves by authoritarian states, as is seen in the recent public opinion poll in Poland where a large number of respondents agreed with the country getting nuclear weapons to deter Russia. If that happens we have three nuclear-armed NATO states and a revival of the Cold War’s MAD policy — mutually assured destruction.
We should anticipate internal pressure for Australia to go the same way with nuclear weapons, I venture, adding that any move to do so would certainly generate opposition from segments of the public. The ambiguity coming from a Trump-led US or its failure to act against an actual invasion of Taiwan could trigger Australia to seek new alliances and partnerships. Forging deeper ties with regional powers like Japan, possibly Indonesia and ASEAN nations could foster a collective security framework.
Australia would likely increase defence spending and modernise the armed forces by investing in cutting-edge technologies to ensure self-sufficiency in the face of uncertainty, especially over China, Toni goes on. Australia would protect critical infrastructure and sensitive data by boosting cybersecurity, establishing robust cyber-defence and building offensive cyber capabilities to ward off emerging threats. We are a little way down that road already but we still have far to go in defending ourselves against cyberwarfare as well as cybercrime. One upshot of a radical Republican government in the US could be our actively engaging in multilateral organisations and increasing aid to the region to build Australia’s influence, foster trust and promote cooperation with neighbouring nations to enhance regional stability and security.
And prioritising climate leadership by investing in renewable energy industry and skills, collaborating with like-minded countries and assisting the region with climate adaptation would also increase regional security, I add. Sea level rise is already a big concern among Pacific Island governments and decisive moves by Australia would only enhance our standing in the region. Doing this as a cooperative program with New Zealand has the potential to position both nations as a Southwestern Pacific counter to the growing influence of China in the region.
Don’t forget the influence of soft power initiatives to harness the power of cultural, educational and public diplomacy, Toni says. That would enhance Australia’s regional influence and defend against China’s practice of elite capture in region, such as we saw in Cambodia and as we see in the Solomon Islands.
Croissants and coffee with Toni always leaves my head spinning with possibilities. Our conversation this morning is no exception. I walk away from the cafe reaffirmed in my belief that by embracing national resilience, developing geostrategic adaptability and greater self-reliance we will find the key to our country navigating the transition to a Trump-era security situation and forging a new path towards a secure future in an increasingly unstable region.
This won’t be easy, but with clear thinking unencumbered by ties to a past that could rapidly fade into history, strategic thinking and bold decision-making, Australia can move forward in a geopolitical environment thrown into uncertainty by a radical Republican US government or even without the US alliance. Let’s seize this opportunity.
Read on…
