How roster changes impact prematch odds in esports betting
Roster changes, transfers, substitutions.
Everyone has an opinion on them, they generate plenty of talk on Twitter and can make or break a team’s season, tournament or playoff run.
But what’s the impact on betting and odds? How does a new signing impact a team’s odds to win, and by how much? What about teams with a seemingly revolving door of substitutions?
From the waves made in the CS:GO scene when karrigan rejoined FaZe to jungle substitutions in League of Legends for strategic or health reasons, we analysed the odds behind a few roster changes to find out more.
Big names and IGL changes, do they match the hype?
In-Game Leaders are the lifeblood to every team in competitive Counter-Strike. Their decision-making, style of play and communication skills define how a team plays, enhances its strengths and mitigates its weaknesses in order to win.
For such a team-defining role, it’s highly likely for any team with a new In-Game Leader (IGL) to experience growing pains. Unless a team has a lot of time to practice before heading into their next tournament, they’re probably going to have a rocky start.
karrigan returns to FaZe as IGL
With this in mind, what impact does a change of IGL have on a CS team? We analysed the high-profile signing of karrigan to FaZe in early 2021 to see how the hype, and subsequent performances were reflected in the odds.
FaZe were in the middle of a slump, having bowed out early of the last 3 tournaments they attended, pulling out only 1 win out of their last 6 matches. The team sought to bring in some big names. Finn “karrigan” Andersen returned to FaZe to take up IGL duties, joining recently signed NA star Russel “Twistzz” Van Dulken.
IEM Katowice 2021
The hype of the two new signings was reflected across the industry, with FaZe receiving a healthy bump in Winner 2-way markets despite their poor run of form. Even when up against North American powerhouse Team Liquid, FaZe were the slight favourites at 1.88 to TL’s 2.13 to win at IEM Katowice 2021.
When looking at both team’s rankings according to CS:GO hub HLTV, Team Liquid ranked as the 7th best team in the world, with FaZe sitting ten places below at 17th.
Along with the hype of the new signing, Team Liquid may have received a slightly negative nudge due in the odds due to Twistzz’s departure, despite the fact that his replacement, Gabriel “FalleN” Toledo was a highly touted IGL and AWPER.
TL took home the win between the two with a strong showing: winning the first map 16–11 and the second 16–6 for a 2–0 series victory. FaZe followed up in the loser’s bracket with a win 2–0 win over the higher ranked OG before losing to Brazilian powerhouse FURIA 2–1, squeaking out one map victory 16–14 and tumbling out of the tournament.
ESL Pro League Season 13
With these losses in hand, the market considered FaZe’s performance an improvement compared to previous events. These expectations carried over FaZe into the ESL Pro League, including being pegged as favourites against the higher ranked mousesports, who they had lost to 2–0 only 2 months prior.
FaZe stepped into the series at 1.78 to win compared to mousesports’ 2.27, and ended up taking away the win 2–0 in what were two hotly contested maps. While FaZe didn’t make it out of the group stage it was a net positive improvement, with a 2–0 win against ENCE and taking 1 map from world #5 Vitality and finishing the tournament with 2–3 record.
Hype moves price, news coverage is why
Across the market, traders considered the signings of karrigan and Twistzz as huge boons for the struggling FaZe. While there was notable improvement from the team, the favourable odds against NA juggernaut Team Liquid could be considered a case of believing the hype.
Professional Counter-Strike is a game very much defined by the team’s cohesion and coordination, and with roster changes, especially IGLs, there will always be some growing pains. A similar situation can be seen with the recent shift of superstar Nicolai ‘dev1ce’ Reedtz from Astralis to NIP. Where despite strong performances, the team has dropped matches to OG and mousesports during Flashpoint 3 and IEM Summer 2021.
Jungle subs and odds drops in LoL
With all the talk of jungle changes and role swaps, particularly in European League of Legends, we took a dive into how some past substitutions in NA and Europe positively and negatively impacted their teams odds, and particularly to what degree.
Potluck in the jungle for Immortals
In a surprise to many, Xmithie did not start as Immortals jungler in the the first 2 weeks of the 2020 LCS Summer Split. He was a sought after player following Team Liquid’s signing of Fnatic Jungler Broxah.
Potluck started in his place and performed very poorly, leading to more conservative odds in against lower tiered teams and starker differences against the traditionally stronger teams.
Even their matchup against cellar-dwellers Counter Logic Gaming seeing a slight dip in the Winner 2-way odds from 1.64 to win to 1.79 and against the stronger 100 Thieves were paying 3.12. The odds shift proved right: with Potluck in the jungle Immortals lost their first 4 games before Xmithie stepped in to take back the jungle reins.
With the LCS veteran back at the helm after a 4 game slide, odds on Immortals victories saw a slight bump, including in their next matchup against 100 Thieves. Despite the previous loss, Immortals fared better in their prematch odds, paying 2.70 to win with Xmithie as the jungler. 100 Thieves emerged the winner again, but the shift in odds was a sign of increased faith in the squad with Xmithie despite their poor form.
The switch back did result in some improvement for Immortals, but it could not save the side from finishing with the wooden spoon and a final win-loss record of 4–14.
Santorin bows out of the Mid-Season Showdown
Finishing in 3rd place during the LCS 2021 Spring Season but with a high-powered lineup of Alphari, Santorin, Jensen, Tactical and CoreJJ, Team Liquid were a strong contender for the Mid-Season Showdown title.
Unfortunately, Liquid’s starting jungler was seriously ill and had to sub out:
In his placed stepped Armao from TL’s second-tier Academy team, a pro player of 6 years who was most notably Team SoloMid’s (TSM) starting jungler in the past. Going into the semi-final against TSM the odds were very much in TL’s favour, paying 1.49 to win with Santorin in the lineup.
Following Santorin’s announcement there was a stark shift in the odds, albeit still Team Liquid favoured. With Armao in the lineup there was a notable odds drop, with TL at 1.72 to win the series. Team Liquid ended up winning the series 3 games to 1, before losing to tournament favourites Cloud 9 in a gripping series that went to a full 5 games.
Vitality puts all their chips on the early game
For French squad Team Vitality, they decided to change things up in LEC 2020 Summer following a slow start and a last place finish in the previous split. The current patch at the time of the competition was geared towards the late, and very late game (30+ minutes), conditions which weren’t the greatest for their starting jungler Nji’s champion pool and skillset.
In response, Vitality sought to go all in on the early game, switching to backup jungler Skeanz, who was expected to bring fire power early and a champion pool that better aligned with the current meta.
The switch to Skeanz and a bigger focus on the early game saw a shift in odds. In Vitality’s previous game against Fnatic with Nji in the jungle — a loss — they went into match as heavy underdogs, paying 4.35 to win. In their next matchup with Skeanz at the helm, Vitality saw an increase in the odds to win despite their poor run of form and previous loss, paying 3.16. Vitality could not overcome Fnatic in light of the jungle and odds change.
When comparing the track records of the two junglers over the course of the split, the change did not yield a great deal of success for Vitality. With Nji at the helm for LEC Summer 2020, Vitality managed to pull out 4 wins from 10 matches, and only 3 wins from 8 matches with Skeanz to finish in 9th place at 7–11.
What’s in a roster change?
Be it a big name signing that should improve the squad on paper or a tactical substitution to fit specific matchups or meta games, calculating the odds of each roster change is a tall task indeed.
Just like with trading any major sport: to be successful, traders need to be informed and equipped with the most up-to-date information backed by quality data and modelling.
The hype around karrigan returning to FaZe saw the team favoured in matchups where they were going up against stronger, more highly ranked teams. Performances didn’t match the hype — a testament to the importance of teams adjusting to new In-Game Leaders and new styles of play in CS:GO.
Considering the critical role of junglers in League of Legends, player swaps are often met with skepticism as to their success. And rightly so — the jungle is quite the mixed bag that is very sensitive to balance and meta changes, specific champions pools and fit with team composition. In an age where SK Gaming’s Treatz and Fnatic’s Bwipo are moving from Support and Top Lane into the Jungle position, how jungle swaps impact performance is going to be key to watch for traders.
