Panda Prediction 4: Fragmented US regulation, Call of Duty and the American market
The slow, patchwork march of US regulation has been a big topic of conversation and speculation in esports betting for quite a few years. The very nature of state-by-state regulation, and particularly what each piece of legislation counts as within the sphere of ‘sports betting’ leaves the esports betting sector with piecemeal progress.
This shouldn’t discourage businesses, bookmakers and esports enthusiasts away from the American market — the opportunity is simply too big to give up on. As noted in a recent SportTechie article from Michael Sutyak, the 3 most populous states in America — California, Texas and Florida — haven’t legalised sports betting. These states alone are home to about 90 million people, and for the country more broadly, conservative estimates put the size of a legalised US betting industry at roughly $67 billion a year.
A major hurdle for esports betting in the US currently is that when it does get legal clearance, it is often classified under the legislation as an ‘event’ rather than a ‘sport’. This has ramifications from the back end through to the choices a punter can make.
When classified under event betting, individual esports tournaments or leagues are required to get approval for each competition. Potentially even each week of competition. It doesn’t take a great deal of imagination to see how quickly it is to get bogged down in approvals processes from regulators and potentially miss the boat on an event entirely. Additionally, under ‘event betting’ classifications there are differing maximum win limits in place, with any higher limit requiring separate approval from the relevant gambling authority.
There are some bright spots in the US, such as New Jersey nearing the approval of esports betting operations in the same fashion as sports. The Nevada Gaming and Control Board has had a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with the Esports Integrity Commission (previously Coalition) since 2017. Nevada State Senator Ben Keickhefer has introduced a bill to establish a governing commission for esports, similar to major sporting codes.
For 9 of the 12 teams in the franchised Call of Duty League (CDL), the US is home territory. While admittedly a smaller scene compared to CS:GO or LoL, its concentration of US fans and legacy organisations like OpTic Chicago or big brand teams like the LA Thieves (100 Thieves) and Atlanta FaZe (FaZe Clan) demonstrate its presence in the country. The viewership numbers for esports events catered to a US dominated market are also encouraging, especially for Call of Duty.
Taking a look at the numbers, last year’s CDL Finals drew an average concurrent viewership of 94,458, and the recently completed first stage and Major of the 2021 season pulled an average of around 60,000 concurrent viewers. Considering the concentration of Call of Duty teams in the US, these are respectable viewership numbers.
🐼 Panda Prediction for 2021?
Keeping an eye on legislation will be incredibly important for bookmakers looking to make headway in the US esports betting market. It’s already been proven that despite the legislation, American punters are betting on sports through grey or black market channels, so it’s pretty safe to assume similar activity in esports.
As one of the largest consumer markets in the world and a hub for esports teams and activity across a wide range of games, as has been repeated ad nauseam, there is huge potential in the US for bookmakers. The centre of the Call of Duty scene, major region status in the Rocket League Championship Series (RLCS) and some incredibly competitive teams in the VALORANT Champions Tour (VCT) are all strong indicators of the quality of US esports.
Should changes in legislation, and particularly the inclusion of esports under ‘sports betting’ legislation take place in the US, there is so much to gain in offering punters quality betting experiences through safer, regulated channels.
Check out our other 2021 Panda Predictions and stay tuned for our final instalment on esports betting and the return to LAN.
