The End to the Rise of the Dragon, Time for the Tiger to Rise
The era of unipolarity is over, and we are entering an era of multipolarity with the number of actors increasing it is an era of decline for United States, with Chinese diplomatic victories the most recent being the resuming of Saudi-Iran ties under China. The reluctance of OPEC especially Saudi Arabia to lower the oil prices owing to the Russia-Ukraine war also shines light on the fact that US is losing its hold on the Middle-East. With many NATO members joining BRI project and facing competition even within NATO from countries like France and UK the position of US as the world’s powerful democracy seems to be shaken.
One-Party state like China emerging as a world power is a major concern for democratic nations, as a nation known for its human right violations, suppression of free speech and censorship of media, China is not an ideal candidate for the role of world leader but still China is growing and has made itself an separable part of the world, China currently boast’s the world’s largest navy and is almost unchallenged in the south China sea. It is far ahead of US in hypersonic technology with its DF-17 hypersonic missiles posing a major thread to the US carrier strike groups operating in the Pacific. Chinese military is being rapidly modernized, with Chinese companies delivering cutting edge technologies it is not long before it replaces US as world power. Chinas strategic dept-traps has also enabled it to gain access to critical infrastructure all over the world.
But in past ten years a lot is changing and is changing fast the honeymoon period of the Chinese economy has come to an end, the two digit growth that China enjoyed in the early 2000’s is not going to happening again. The cheap labor which was a main attraction of the Chinese economy is gone, with an ageing population and continues lockdowns due to covid has resulted in companies relocating to other nations. Tensions with US over Taiwan has led to US law makers preventing critical technology from reaching China. China is still not in a position to fight a cultural war with US, with the bankruptcy of Srilanka and worsening economic condition in Pakistan has shined light on the dark side of the Chinese loans prompting many nations to back off from BRI projects.
Now the world is looking for a new leader, here comes the chance of the worlds largest democracy India. India has strong ties with both Russia and NATO nations and has a growing influence among the African countries owing to India’s medical support during Covid pandemic. India having cheap labor, enormous purchasing power, rapidly improving infrastructure and government’s strong intent for indigenization has made India a sweet spot for many companies. It is to be noted that several companies migrating from China are establishing themselves in India, Foxconn’s resent move to establish iPhone factory in Bengaluru is one among the many examples for companies migrating from China.
Due to India’s Border issues with China along the North Eastern borders US sees India as potential partner (or a weapon) against China. India for now completely dominate India Ocean through which 80% of world’s oil trade takes place. Indian Island if Andaman and Nicobar sits in front of the Malacca strait through which 65 % of Chinas trade happens. Even in the resend times when every nation is restricted from buying Russian oil India’s oil imports from Russia has seen an increase of 700 % which shows India’s influence over the world. With a rapidly growing economy India is spending heavily on its defense, the world’s second largest army is now being rapidly modernized, Indian navy has 45 vessels of various types under construction in Indian shipyard alone, and will be inducted into the Navy in the next 10 years, Indian Air force going ahead with MRFA project for 114 multi role fighters and approval for fifth generation fighter programme ( AMCA) all shows India’s intent in becoming military power. India also possess a strong cultural advantages over its adversaries.
India has to keep up its economic growth and tackle its internal issues. It also needs to concentrate more on Industrial sector and has a huge need of skilled labour. These are not easy task and will require strong cooperation between government and its citizens. If you look into the current situation this is a perfect time for India to grow, with China occupied in the South China Sea and Pakistan’s TTP trouble India is experiencing very little terrorist activities. India has a vibrant and growing startup ecosystem, with a large number of innovative companies emerging in the recent years. Through a collective effort India’s journey to become a world leader can be made possible in 30–40 years.
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