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My Predictions for 2025
What to expect from the new year
“America First”
The consequences of Donald Trump’s victory in 2024 and the conservative “counter-revolution” in the U.S. will affect all areas of the global agenda, from immigration and international security to economics and trade. Trump’s MAGA policies will cause friends and foes alike to question the strength of U.S. alliances around the world. This could lead to geopolitical realignments, increased tensions, and even threats of nuclear weapons. Within the American establishment, fragmentation will continue, following the already existing polarization of American society. This will actualize the problem of political alliances, intraparty intrigue and sabotage. And the lack of self-confidence will force politicians to increasingly resort to populism.
Conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East
Many observers pin their hopes for a soon-to-be universal peace on Donald Trump’s return to the White House on January 20. During the campaign, Trump promised to stop the war in Ukraine “in 24 hours,” resolve the conflict in the Middle East, and “prevent World War III.” None of these things will happen. Hopes for peace in Ukraine will be the first to be dashed.