“All we really know about the future is that it will be different”
“All we really know about the future is that it will be different. But perhaps what we fear is that it will be the same.” excerpt from Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (2011), The Movie.
Future cannot be predicted in order to be a continuous improvement of sustainability. Since the future is to change and unpredictable, the system [e.g. machine (deep) learning] shall be considered on and on learning against constantly changing uncertain situations.
All kind of predictive analysis tools is doomed to failure because it would be well possible inevitable and unpredictable changes to be occurred any time because of the V’s of Big Data: Velocity, Volume, Value, Variety, and Veracity in today’s growing digital world.
All predictive tools only give us a false-positive because today’s (temporary-limited)solutions would become tomorrow’s problems.
Let’s look at it in Nature’s perspective;
As you know, in nature, living organisms influence each other, and their terrain; they compete and collaborate, share and create resources, and co-evolve; and they are inevitably subject to external disruptions, to which they adapt together because of constantly changing uncertain situations.
“The paradox is that nature is both ordered and chaotic. This paradox represents the core reason why man cannot predict or control the future. Chaos theory states that, under certain conditions, ordered, regular patterns can be seen to arise out of random, erratic and turbulent processes.
Chaos theory helps us to understand Nature’s systems. Complex systems are characterized by unpredictability and complexity. They all behave, in many ways, in a non-deterministic or apparently random manner.
Feedback (failures in business) is a concept that is central to all complex systems. Feedback provides both self-control and chaos within a system. A feedback loop is a mechanism by which change in a variable result in either an amplification (positive feedback) or a dampening (negative feedback) of that change.
Nature’s systems are not predictable because the effect of Nature’s feedback loops is non-linear. These non-linear relationships result from the systems feedback mechanisms which are, in turn, usually driven by unpredictable influences external to the organism being affected.
Feedback is a driving force in evolution. In Nature’s changing dance driven by natural selection, species survive or fail as their feedback systems respond to the changing environment in which they live. The result is more complexity over time without thought, design, or a leader.” Source: BOOK- Nature’s Pattern — Exploring Her Tangled Web
Therefore, in today’s unpredictable environment, we just need failures to learn from them to be more resilience. Actually, that’s not a problem. In the collaborative ecosystem environment, if one solution fails or performs poorly, others can step in to compensate.
When we look at the business perspective;
“Business ecosystems are dynamic and co-evolving communities of diverse actors who create new value through increasingly productive and sophisticated models of both collaboration and competition.
Platforms are also information factories without control over inventory. The challenge of building and managing platforms is that you do not exert direct control over your value proposition.
The Platform’s paradox is that its hyper centralization and proprietary nature make it possible to form a wide network of trusted decentralized trust relationships between actors in context, in ways that the Web never did and never will do, enabling new multi-party business models.” Source: Deloitte Insights — Introduction: Business ecosystems come of age
“The rise of business ecosystems is fundamentally altering the key success factors for leading organizations, forcing them to think and act very differently regarding their strategies, business models, leadership, core capabilities, value creation and capture systems, and organizational models.” by William El Kaim
We are against in a circular economy in which networking and shared value creation are increasingly being sensed as the way to move toward a sustainable future. Creating new value together with customers and their ecosystem partners should require a holistic approach comprising of a new sustainable business model innovation explores the ways in which strategy takes shape in the multi-party organization.
The process of strategizing is a complex phenomenon. So New Business Model Innovation should consider sustainability in themes of maximizing material and energy efficiency, create value from waste, substitute with renewable and natural processes, and deliver functionality rather than ownership.
I firmly believe that the sustainability has become part of businesses for developing win-win-win strategies to simultaneously benefit the company, its customers and society, and the environment, not just considering greenhouse gas emissions or energy efficiency/saving.
Contribution to the vision on New Sustainable Business Model Innovationexplores the ways in which strategy takes shape in the multi-party organization. This leads to the shaping and defining of goals and projects and a shared ambition to realize collective business strategy.
Yet, how we can create a collective business strategy while simultaneously engaging in a process of cooperation and value creation is unclear?
We’re faced with the conjunction of globalization and a revolution in technology made business far more dynamic and unpredictable. In other words, today’s hyper-connected world presents no guarantee that the future will resemble the past.
We get to understand, henceforth, we need to solve each customer’ problem uniquely on a way to handle it by using agile methods, a deep collaboration between inside and outside the business, and a continuous sensibility with great speed and flexibility [Customer Experience].
We need to think more subtly about how we can shape, rather than control, unpredictable and complex situations in front of the state or quality of being a complicated business in order to survive and thrive in today’s competitive environment.
In fact, traditional assessments or outdated performance criteria would also give us false positives, courageous enough to stick in a practice that has made us successful in the past; we’re going to keep doing what’s familiar and comfortable.
To get rid of the obsolete approaches scratched to our brains, I think we need to reappraisal in collaborative problem-solving dynamic method invocation among the people who have different points of view and discover the solution re-configuring in new combinations to be matched customer expectation at every turn.
For this to be possible, we need to be able to test and refine the solution portfolio through agile methods coming from discovery-driven learning (Lean) and more inclusive Design Thinking Mindset.