I’m not that worried (about Trump)
I’m not that worried about Trump. Along some dimensions, American Presidents don’t have that much power. Momentum matters a lot in American government, and, despite campaign promises to the contrary, it’s very difficult for sitting presidents to reverse the policies of their predecessors.
However, I agree that, at the margin, having Trump in the White House would result in bad policy outcomes. I generally think we should loosen our immigration restrictions, and it seems that President Trump would move the government in the opposite direction.
But, momentum matters, and I bet that President Trump would be on trend in terms of many policies. So, while I understand it’s upsetting to some that someone as crass as Trump, someone so antagonistic to certain deeply held beliefs, is close to winning the Republican nomination, many of the problems in our country over the last 40 years are systemic and slow-burning. We generally take our eye off the ball, politically speaking, but when we see a candidate we don’t like in an election year, we can get very upset.
Now, many think there is still a good chance of Trump losing the general election. Tyler Cowen suggests that “There is a 0.26 chance that Donald Trump is the Mike Tyson of politics, and he will voluntarily self-destruct in a way which will astonish us.” Similarly, Megan McArdle notes that “Politics is a long game”, and “being a front-runner is very different from being a loudmouth in a crowded field”. But people said Trump couldn’t make it this far, so it’s hard to take such claims at face value.
Yes, there are some potentially scary things about a Trump Presidency. But are you really worried, or are you just signaling your political virtue on Facebook?
6. Denouncing Trump is a form of virtue signaling. That is, it is a cheap way to try to raise your status among well-educated people.
The United States of America, our Republic, is a long game. We have survived civil war, the threat of nuclear holocaust, world war, and many corrupt leaders at all levels of politics. Do you really believe that one president can sink or save our nation, all on their own, in four or eight years time? Don’t believe the hype.
