Race to 5G: The Era of Slow 5G Begins
AT&T and T-Mobile are now covering millions of people with 5G signal, but the new networks work and feel just like 4G.
By Sascha Segan
5G is getting bigger, wider, and more confusing than ever, now that two US carriers have 5G networks that are not convincingly faster than 4G. AT&T’s low-band 5G network now covers at least 32 million people, giving it six points for coverage in our Race to 5G rankings. It doesn’t have the 200-million-person, nationwide coverage of T-Mobile’s low-band 5G network, but it’s the first AT&T 5G that’s been available to consumers.
Here’s the twist, though: It isn’t noticeably faster than 4G. According to Ookla Speedtest Intelligence, AT&T’s low-band 5G system has average download speeds of 77.7Mbps and upload speeds of 18.11Mbps when used with the Galaxy Note 10+ 5G phone. Galaxy Note 10+ LTE phones nationwide on AT&T average 61.7Mbps down and 10.35Mbps up. (Note: Ookla is owned by Ziff Davis, PCMag.com’s parent company.)
So that’s a 25 percent boost in speed when going from AT&T’s “5G E” (its name for its most advanced 4G) to plain old 5G. That falls far short of the 723Mbps down that AT&T’s millimeter-wave network has been delivering on Galaxy S10 5G phones.
T-Mobile’s overall 5G speeds have plummeted this month as well, because of its slower low-band system. According to Speedtest Intelligence, it’s now down to an average of 61.25Mbps downloads on 5G, which makes T-Mobile the slowest 5G carrier and slower than many 4G systems globally.
This is just what happens when you put 5G in narrow little channels similar to the ones used for 4G-it acts like 4G. AT&T’s new 5G network runs on 5–10MHz channels carved off of the traditional 850MHz cellular band, I’ve heard. 5G isn’t a magic bullet; to achieve great speeds, it needs a lot of spectrum, and US carriers just don’t have that spectrum available in these low bands. Rather, they’re pumping out a slow 5G experience so people can get that icon on their phones.
5G Scores for January: Who’s Winning?
In our Race to 5G counter, which combines speed, devices, and coverage, T-Mobile currently leads because of massive coverage, although its speed went down far enough that it lost all of its points there. Verizon comes in second place because of great speed, but I’m only giving it one point for coverage. AT&T and Sprint bring up the rear at the moment.
(AT&T and Verizon won’t tell me how many people their networks cover, so I have to estimate based on census data.)
No carrier has speed and coverage. It’s possible to do so; the 5G world will have it. But we may not see that balance until our carriers enable more mid-band spectrum for 5G, whether that’s later this year or in 2021.
What Is 5G, Anyway?
It’s important to remember that 5G is not a frequency, a speed, or an experience. It’s a set of service standards and technology documents that are realized by a form of radio encoding-5G NR.
5G NR has a bunch of advantages over 4G, and it will have more in the future. But it has to be implemented properly for consumers to see those advantages. In narrow channels and non-standalone mode, which is where we’re at with these low-band networks in the US right now, it feels just like 4G.
The current round of low-band 5G phones-the Samsung Galaxy Note 10+ and the OnePlus 7T Pro 5G McLaren -also cannot access the faster millimeter-wave networks that both carriers have set up in certain cities.
So why do 5G at all, beyond marketing? Future-proofing. Multi-band phones are coming starting in February. Standalone mode will come later in 2020 and free 5G networks from having to handshake using 4G, potentially lowering latency and increasing the number of addressable devices in a small area. New spectrum will become available in 2020 and 2021 to enable faster speeds and bond with these low-band channels. It’s not really about the experience this month; it’s about the experience next year.
The low-band 5G experience will improve somewhat when dynamic spectrum sharing becomes available later this year, letting 5G users and 4G users share the same bands. But for carriers to really balance speed and coverage for new experiences, they need large chunks of mid-band spectrum. Sprint is the only US carrier with that available right now, and the rest of the carriers won’t get a chance to buy any until potentially late in 2020.
Verizon hit 31 cities with millimeter-wave 5G last month, fulfilling a promise to do 30 by the end of the year. It has a half-dozen phones available, and some (but not all) coverage maps for its cities. A test of Verizon’s map in New York showed it was a bit over-optimistic, though, with performance in covered areas coming out well below expectations.
Sprint, meanwhile, is waiting until the outcome of its merger trial to make any further 5G moves.
With all of this 5G confusion, it’s no wonder China is outpacing the US on 5G phone sales. According to Counterpoint Research, China and the US have about the same size premium phone market-85m or so here compared with around 100m in China-but Chinese carriers have been selling up to 17x the number of 5G phones per week that US carriers have been doing, according to data provider M Science. Unlike the US, China is primarily using mid-band spectrum, and its three carriers have compatible 5G networks with lots of available phones.
January, February Will Bring Big Changes
Some of the most frustrating issues with 5G may start to resolve themselves in the next two months. Closing arguments for the T-Mobile/Sprint merger trial are set for January 15. Once the judge rules, Sprint’s logjam will break-either it will start to become the New T-Mobile, or it will unleash its plan B for an independent 5G rollout.
In mid-February-the most recent rumors have it as February 11-Samsung will announce the Galaxy S11, anticipated to be the first smartphone that will work with all of the nation’s 5G frequencies. That’s probably also when AT&T will make its mysterious, multi-city millimeter-wave network available to consumers rather than continuing to restrict it to a small group of business customers.
Then there’s Mobile World Congress, the world’s biggest mobile industry trade show, beginning on February 24. T-Mobile is probably dying to do a big New T-Mobile presentation there.
It’s worth saying that 5G has only just begun. Major, flagship features of the new technology haven’t been implemented by any US network yet-things like standalone networks, network slicing, ultra-reliable communication, or 5G home internet. In many countries, the networks haven’t launched at all. So none of these initial missteps serve to condemn 5G-just to say that maybe our carriers have been marketing it before it was fully baked.
Originally published at https://www.pcmag.com on January 3, 2020.
