Georgia’s Competitive Districts: HD-108
As a reminder, this is a district breakdown in a series of posts on the competitiveness of Georgia legislative districts. For a review of the methodology and background information, please start here:
District Data
Demographics and Registration
Check out more details and great visualizations from Statistical Atlas:
Model Projections
Candidates
Clay Cox — Republican
Website:
Fundraising:
As of October 25th filing:
Total raised — $71,530.00
Raised in this period — $8,750.00
Total spent — $67,121.09
Spent in this period — $20,367.20
Cash on hand — $4,408.91
Bio:
- CEO and Founder of Professional Probation Services
- Former State Representative for HD-108 from 2005 to 2011
- Board member of Georgia’s Department of Community Health
TR Radjabov — Democrat
Website:
Fundraising:
As of October 25th filing:
Total raised — $79,420.94
Raised in this period — $26,390.00
Total spent — $58,226.61
Spent in this period — $24,946.06
Cash on hand — $21,194.23
Bio:
- Entrepreneur
- Immigrated to the U.S. from the Soviet Union when he was 15
- Graduate of Jacksonville State University
Analysis
The numbers are close here in a quasi-open race. Clay Cox was the previous holder of this seat, so while it technically is an open race, it’s hard to not give Cox some level of advantage here.
This district, like many, has experienced a decrease in white voter registration and an increase in minority registration. As you can see in the table above, the district growth has outpaced the 2014 estimates. The estimated certified voting age population was about 24,000, but there are about 28,500 registered voters as of October 1st.
Radjabov has a good amount of money available, but most if it has come from loans to the campaign totaling $67,500. Only about $4,000 have come from supporters.
The projected numbers are within 2 points, but still gives a Republican advantage. If Radjabov can perform as well as Clinton, then there is hope for him to steal this victory away from Cox, but it’s still not likely.
It’s important to note that the turnout numbers currently used were an average of 2012 and 2008, but the reports have been that turnout may be closer to 2012 levels than 2008. This hurts Radjabov and other Democratic candidates. If the turnout can exceed 2012 levels, then Radjabov may have a chance. Even under the average turnout levels and the presidential polling only, Radjabov is only +1.5 in the model.
I have this district as a toss-up, but it probably will end up as a lean-R as the numbers get updated. Regardless of the outcome, this district should be a solid target heading into 2018.
— Following the POLITICS of today, for the generations of TOMORROW —
Politics for Tomorrow is a publication focused on progressive politics both nationally and in the State of Georgia.
Follow Politics for Tomorrow on Twitter here.
Follow Austin Wagner on Twitter here.
