Georgia’s Competitive Districts: HD-66

As a reminder, this is a district breakdown in a series of posts on the competitiveness of Georgia legislative districts. For a review of the methodology and background information, please start here:

The Most Vulnerable Georgia Districts — Part One

District Data

Demographics and Registration

Check out more details and great visualizations from Statistical Atlas:

Overview of State House District 66, Georgia (State House District) - Statistical Atlas

Model Projections

Candidates

Kimberly Alexander — Democrat (Incumbent)

Website:

Representative Kimberly Alexander

Fundraising:

As of October 25th filing:

Total raised — $27,444.20

Raised in this period — $5,070.16

Total spent — $8,538.08

Spent in this period — $3,459.75

Cash on hand — $18,906.12

Campaign Reports Search | Georgia Government Campaign Finance Commission of Georgia

Bio:

• First elected to HD-66 in 2012
• Works as an Auditor Contractor
• Graduate of Morris Brown College and Central Michigan University

Bruce Emory — Republican

Website:

Bruce Emory for Georgia State Representative

Fundraising:

As of October 25th filing:

Total raised — $6,518.61

Raised in this period — $0.00

Total spent — $6,518.61

Spent in this period — $0.00

Cash on hand — $0.00

Campaign Reports Search | Georgia Government Campaign Finance Commission of Georgia

Bio:

• Local Douglasville business owner
• Served in leadership at The Church of Chapel Hill

Analysis

This district should be a solid hold for the Democrats. The model currently predicts a 13 point advantage for Representative Alexander. Even looking at my worst-case scenario (the U.S. Senate polling numbers), the margin reduces to a 3 point advantage. I don’t believe the race will get that close given the data.

As with other districts, there has been an increase in minority registration since 2012 and a decrease in white registration. This shift towards the Democrats is only compounded by the fundraising numbers. Mr. Emory raised about one-fourth of Rep. Alexander’s numbers. He also had zero cash on hand as of September 30th, and he raised no money in the month of October.

This district is a solid Democratic hold.

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