Georgia’s Competitive Districts: SD-40
As a reminder, this is a district breakdown in a series of posts on the competitiveness of Georgia legislative districts. For a review of the methodology and background information, please start here:
District Data
Demographics and Registration
Check out more details and great visualizations from Statistical Atlas:
Model Projections
**Updated 10/28/16 at 1:55pm**
Candidates
Fran Millar — Republican (Incumbent)
Website:
Fundraising:
As of September 30th filing:
Total raised — $257,461.13
Raised in this period — $35,000.00
Total spent — $158,734.98
Spent in this period — $18,637.58
Cash on hand — $98,726.15
Bio:
- First elected to represent SD-40 in 2010
- Represented HD-79 from 1999 to 2011
- Insurance agent
- Chair of the Senate Higher Education committee
- A+ rating from the Georgia Chamber for three consecutive years
- Serves on the Southern Regional Education Board and the Board for Georgia Partnership for Excellence in Education
Tamara Johnson-Shealey — Democrat
Website:
Fundraising:
As of September 30th filing:
Total raised — $11,859.35
Raised in this period — $3,257.52
Total spent — $10,591.65
Spent in this period — $3,125.54
Cash on hand — $1,267.70
Bio:
- 2014 Democratic candidate for SD-40
- Owner of a nail salon
- Founded Politics Beauty and The Concerned Beauty Professionals
- Advocated on behalf of licensed beauty professionals regarding both Georgia and Federal legislation
Analysis
Based on the demographics this should be a competitive senate district. However, based on previous results and the fundraising totals, this again appears to be a lock for the Republicans. These two candidates faced off in 2014 and Senator Millar won the election with a 25 point margin.
Ms. Johnson-Shealey is known for her advocacy on behalf of the beauty/barber industry which is apparent throughout her website. Unfortunately, that’s a narrow issue that won’t win many votes. She has an issue page that lists many common issues for the Democratic Party, but not much beyond that.
Even beyond those points, this is a race dominated by an incumbent who has served in the Georgia legislature for 16 years. Senator Millar’s fundraising completely dwarfs Ms. Johnson-Shealey’s.
President Obama lost this district by 10% and the demographics have moved further in favor of the Democrats. However, I have a hard time believing a candidate who has been outspent by over a 10-to-1 margin will be able to unseat the incumbent. With a strong candidate and fundraising support, this district could have been competitive, but I believe that Senator Millar will hold on to his seat. Though I’m always up for a nice surprise.
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