Georgia’s Competitive Districts: The Uncontested
The Georgia Democrats have missed some opportunities this election cycle, so let’s take a look at just how many opportunities were missed.
In my previous post, I updated my 2016 analysis based on the latest polls from the AJC/Abt SBRI and Landmark Communications. This gives us a more defined picture of the outcomes on November 8th. I’ve promised to dissect the individual races that I believe should have been targeted, so I’m starting that here. But I’m starting with potentially the most depressing category: districts uncontested by the Georgia Democrats.
How many seats did we leave on the table?
This group of districts is an interesting look into what could have been. I’m presenting these districts using the same numbers included in the previous post. This is an estimated vote share based on the most recent polling data that we have, projected turnout, and registration numbers as of October 1st. It’s important to note that these districts are all Republican held districts that were included as part of the targeting analysis done previously.
House Districts
The first stop is in the house. There are 23 districts included that do not have a Democrat on the ballot. Four of those districts currently lean towards the Democrats based on the latest data. You can also see that another four are within 5 percentage points and another seven are between 5 and 10 percentage points. These are districts that we most certainly should have been competing in. Every single one of these districts is a toss-up district right now, and could’ve led to significant gains in the house.
Another note to make: I have included HD-151 in this list. HD-151 has had an interesting story so far this year. The original Democratic candidate, James Williams, was disqualified from the ballot after Secretary of State Brian Kemp determined that Williams did not live in the district. There are issues with how all of this was conducted, but the short version is that there is no Democrat on the ballot.
To help alleviate that issue, Rev. Kenneth Zachary stepped up to run in Williams’ place. However, due to the qualification for the district having already closed, Zachary could not run as a Democrat forcing him to run as an Independent. Rev. Zachary is most definitely a Democrat and should capture much of the vote that an official Democrat would have. In fact, his campaign website is paid for by Friends of Stacey Y. Abrams, so I think the Democrats in the state have his back. Regardless, I included HD-151 on this list due to the lack of an “official” Democratic candidate.
For some more background, look to these articles:
Senate Districts
As you can see, the Democrats have done a better job in the Senate, but there are still a few missed opportunities. SD-48 and SD-23 should have been targeted, and hopefully will have candidates in another two years. The other three districts without candidates would have been future targets, but it would have been nice for voters in those districts to see a Democrat fighting for their votes.
In the end, we definitely left a few seats on the table this year and failed to lay the groundwork for 2018 and 2020. Hopefully, 2018 will be viewed with greater urgency towards getting voters used to Democrats on the ballot. A wave is possible in the near future, but we haven’t done enough as a party to make changes across the state.
Now that we’ve covered the uncontested districts, I’ll move on to the individual targeted districts. Look for those each day as we get closer to election day.
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