The S-Curve Doesn’t Exist

At least, not in the way you and I often draw it, according to Gartner.

The S-Curve model is broken. But what does that mean?

Gartner, the world’s best reference for strategy and market research to IT solutions, has two famous tools: the Magic Quadrant and the Hype Cycle. The lesser known of the two, the Hype Cycle describes, as the name suggests, when something gets into a hype, the subsequent disillusionment, and the afterlife post wake-up call.

Gartner’s famous Hype Cycle

I have known the Hype Cycle for a while now. But I have never seen it applied in a way that makes this clear sense to me, until Gartner’s Southeast Asia Partner (I haven’t asked for permission to use his name — let’s call him John) came in to my office last week to discuss his firm’s take on blockchain.
All you need to know about blockchain is it’s in a hype right now. For those of you who are not in tech, if you hear the word ‘blockchain’ more than a couple times in the past week, that’s the sign. Almost no need for Gartner’s famous graph.

Back in May, when I attended a big IBM event in Singapore. Every corner of the hall was draped in A.I. and Blockchain. I remember reflecting sadly that, just a couple years earlier, such events had been all Big Data, and I had been having to defend my existence in a Small Data career. Boy how things have changed.

What John put in perspective for me is that the Hype Cycle is actually part of the larger, presumed S-curve of technology adoption. The actual S shape never happens, because without a hype, new technology won’t gather critical mass and climb past the inflection point. I’d never thought of that.

The Hype Cycle is actually part of the larger, presumed S-curve.

Now, with this picture in mind, another concept comes into clearer focus. Bill Gates said, “We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten.” If we listen to Bill Gates — and why wouldn’t we? He is nerd smart, and sat atop the tech world for over two decades (& likely still does), seeing technologies come and go with much understanding than you & me. If we take his words for it, then a time scale emerge where we can make sense of the Hype-S.

“We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten.”

- Bill Gates

Short-term tech “hype” could lead to long-term adoption.

If a piece of technology receives no hype right now, don’t bother with it. Remember, no chance of gaining wide adoption without a hype. Once it receives a hype, it’s safe to sit back and wait for a couple years at least. When the hype dials down, we can then evaluate which implementer / implementation / use case of the technology delivers promising value.

Part of being productive is knowing where to direct your attention and limited resources and energy. I hope this tool can help you be more productive in this noisy world of new technologies.

Originally published at Penorama Productivity Blog.