Corona virus — Lockdown vs Economic Despair

Having effectively in self quarantine in house for over 2 weeks now, there is not much to do other than working or worrying about the uncertainty of life.
I gave few interviews out of which some came as no and some still waiting for a response.

As I am going through a critical transition in my life, I am also seeing the world in a different light. Initially I felt a void with not much to do and then when I started getting to understand more about corona virus, I can see pretty much it having engulfed every aspect of my life. When ever I talk to a friend, colleague or when I surf online, corona virus is everywhere. The news, analysis, opinions, the magic treatments, all the memes and all the dooms day predictions surrounding it are abound. While initially I was consuming as much as I can and the person I am I was also critical of how people, society and governments are handling this situation but in last few days especially over the weekend the lock down for a week declared by the state government and the 21 day lock down declared by central government in India has pretty much bough every fear of Corona virus close to home, I would say even close to my door step. It is one thing to talk to friends over whats app, reading news, watching YouTube videos or criticizing China, WHO, people or leaders. But the sudden rising numbers, the news of people in my city contracting the virus and now the lock down and the scarcity of things that follows is real.

I wanted to title this blog Life vs Economic Despair but for me its more to do with Lock down vs Economic Despair. India & China and many Asian counties despite having gained so much over the last few decades economically, socially and scientifically. But still when we talk of epidemic or pandemic at scale of Asian nations still our healthcare and even our economic situation doesn't allow us to be in isolation for over a week.

Let me give you some perspective:

India’s per capita Income
$1670 per year

Compare that with Italy one of the hardest hit countries in Europe
$35,896 per year

Additionally referring to this report from 2013

It’s a sharp contrast: India has the fifth highest number of billionaires in the world. There are no dearth for buyers for super cars with an entry level Lamborghini, the Gallardo, costing about $550,000 (over Rs 3 crore) in a country where 33% of the population or 400 million people (100 million more than the entire population of the United States) live on less than $1.25 (around Rs 70) per day.

I agree fully to the need for social distancing and also agree the importance of complete lock down to flatten the curve, but I also can not shy away from the fact that in any form India has a huge price to pay. Its leaders have to make the choice which is the lesser price to pay. Allowing corona virus to wreck havoc is something that Indian government can not allow to happen it has enormous economic, social, political and life cost which India can not pay.
But the 2nd choice which India has taken now is also a cost which will only impact India that much more, and that is corona virus blow to already tatter economy of India. In India suffered a severe slowdown and when it was just looking like it can pick itself up or even start coping with, one of the biggest Indian banks went bankrupt, then we had CAA which had its share of impact on India socially and now the corona virus while uniting India as a nation in fear and even politically may have a very bad and definitive impact on India’s economy. It is true that all the counties are hit hard but not understanding the scale of how much India can be impacted will be foolish.

Lets look at another stat from this report from 2017

The Economic Survey of India 2017 estimates that the magnitude of inter-state migration in India was close to 9 million annually between 2011 and 2016, while Census 2011 pegs the total number of internal migrants in the country (accounting for inter- and intra-state movement) at a staggering 139 million. Uttar Pradesh and Bihar are the biggest source states, followed closely by Madhya Pradesh, Punjab, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, Jammu and Kashmir and West Bengal; the major destination states are Delhi, Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Gujarat, Andhra Pradesh and Kerala.

From the below report in 2019

There is one doctor for every 1,445 Indians as per the country’s current population estimate of 135 crore, which is lower than the WHO’s prescribed norm of one doctor for 1,000 people.

But if you compare this with Italy it has 4.1 doctors per 1000 and if you compare this with China it has 1.8 Doctors per 1000.

But that is not the real metrics that we can point because to be honest we are far better from some of the poorest countries in the world if we go by mere statistics.

But when you see the number of beds per 1000, India has only 0.7 beds per 1000 which is even less than Italy (3.4) and China (4.2), and in recent years this count has only declined. This is important as in urban areas the number of beds is better as you go to rural or semi-urban areas the density drops even further. And depending in which state you are present the situation can get even worse. If you as visit any of the Indian government run hospital they are always overcrowded and poor patients even cant get a bed. And this is during normal times during a epidemic or pandemic like corona virus India’s health care system despite being one of the better ones in the world is not in position to cope with it.

Now when I summarize in a country where 400 million people earn less than 1.25 $ a day, having 139 million living in urban areas who are mostly daily wage or temporary laborers who have a hand to mouth existence the reality sinks in. With 21 days of lock down they don’t have work, no food and an economic uncertainty that the Indian state can never fulfill. This was one of the reasons just before the lock down there was a rush by many urban poor to move to their rural natives as they do not have the means to sustain a 21 day lock down. With a lock down where supply chains broken, movement stopped and effective loss to small businesses and shopkeepers is very high. And yet when I ask some what they think I hear they support the move. As this is about saving lives despite the economic cost. But for many poor there is not much of an opinion its a very harsh hardship that they have to live on.

This is the paradox I live in and this is just the start (Day 2) of the Indian lock down.