Ulaanbaatar’s Standpoint on the Trump-Kim Summits
Bayarkhuu Dashdorj
Research Professor, former Ambassador of Mongolia to Egypt
The Korean Peninsula is the site of the only persisting conflict since the end of the Cold War. The Korean War ended in 1953, but in the 66 years that have since passed, no peace agreement has been concluded in this region. Looking at the pitiful scene of this region, I often wonder about the reasons for the placement of so many soldiers and weapons in such a small geographical area.
The Scandal Surrounding the First Summit
The whole world paid attention on 12 June 2018, the day that the first Trump-Kim meeting took place. Many countries including Russia, Japan, China and South Korea were disappointed that they had been left out of the meeting. Indeed, the nuclear status of North Korea meant that the summit was of interest to and could have involved more than 6 countries. According to many Russian media sources at the time, the Russians never expected that such meeting between Kim Jong-un and Donald Trump would actually take place. This is not because Russia was excluded from or unaware of existing geopolitical games. Rather, Russia was not well versed in North Korea’s history or its new leader’s viewpoints or his style of governance. Russian publications focused on the dark side of North Korea only. Russia’s lack of such details came as a surprise to me, because as a researcher based in Russia in 1992–1993, I can attest to the fact that research on North Korea was very developed at the time.
The entire world, except for Russia, was joyful about the first summit, assuming that Kim Jong-un would actually ban his own nuclear weapons program. Russian websites were warning Kim to not repeat Muammar Al Gaddafi’s pitiful destiny in 2018. Also, there was the question of what this “surrender” would cost. Russia wondered why North Korea was willing to compromise, despite the fact that it was indeed expensive (in terms of power, money, and capital) to make rocket-fired nuclear weapons. In general, Russians logically concluded that being “helped” by western countries could completely destroy the DPRK’s social regime.
The Significance of the Second Summit
The second summit of the North Korea-U.S. leaders did not bring the expected results, leaving the world more skeptical about the dialogue process. Trump’s political show of faith in Kim had failed. North Korea shut its door on the U.S. because Trump had promised to cultivate capitalism in the northern part of the Korean Peninsula. This would have meant that the DPRK’s 70-year institution of uncompromising labor, its communist ideology, and the great power of Kim would have been diminished. It may have been no coincidence that “communist capitalist” Vietnam, which had been at war for a long time, was chosen for the venue of the summit as a living example to demotivate North Koreans. The world was left wondering if Vietnam would be able to convince North Korea that it is possible to develop a market economy and liberate its market while remaining under the strict control of a communist party.
It is unfortunate that Ulaanbaatar was not selected as the venue for the North Korea-U.S summit. Initially, when the officials of the two sides held a secret meeting, North Korea proposed to host the summit in Pyongyang, but the U.S did not accept it. It was reported that Mongolia and its capital Ulaanbaatar was selected as the best possible option for the meeting. It is easy to explain why Ulaanbaatar was not selected as the venue. The current air quality and environmental pollution, political instability, corruption of its authorities, weak financial discipline, poverty could be used as negative excuses. Mongolia has the ability to host any state party. However, we need to be diligent and patient.
Finally, in the context of the two summits, I would like to praise Kim Jong-un. His autobiography is not outstanding but rather very ordinary. If one were to try to write his CV, it would not even fill a page. He is not well known in the world except for his two meetings with Trump and a few visits to China. Nevertheless, this young leader is worthy of praise as he has now written his name in Korean history books by fulfilling his father’s and grandfather’s dreams of negotiating directly with the United States.
Disdain for North Korea is Unproductive
Since the DPRK-U.S summit, the world has been paying close attention to North Korea. In particular, the South Koreans were left most surprised because they never thought that the Americans would directly negotiate with North Korea without their presence. The United States may also have simply been shocked by the outcome. There has been no explanation from Trump, who showed such power in performing the huge gesture of attending the summit, attracting the attention of the whole world. Nevertheless, he still shut the door on the summit without any result. Kim perhaps became agitated when Trump suggested that North Korea would be able to develop its own capitalism with the help of the United States in exchange for surrendering its nuclear weapons to the U.S. Perhaps Kim had not expected that strange bargain. Now it is clear that antagonizing North Koreans is not a good approach.
It is even clearer that North Korea was prepared for any outcome. The DPRK’s ability to withstand pressure and persecution from a great empire was proven as a result of the Hanoi meeting. The DPRK demonstrated its strength through its nuclear weapon tests, and by launching far and medium-range ballistic missiles; events that become the mainstay of global news media. North Korea has not demonstrated any fear of press coverage, whether positive or negative. The DPRK is used to it. A six-sided negotiation is an overwhelming and inefficient affair, which is difficult to recover from. Such negotiation mechanisms are often merely tactics with which to buy some time. The North Koreans will negotiate with United States only, for they have seen better ways than multilateral negotiations and it has been proven twice in Singapore and Hanoi. In the DPRK, there is a strong mindset that the nation needs to defend itself from the United States, and they consider this as appropriate on their side.
The Hanoi summit seemed to offer an answer to the question of whether the DPRK would choose to grow together with the rest of the world or continue to develop independently. North Korea’s main stance had long been to consistently demonstrate their ability to withstand the pressure of powerful countries all over the world. Although the world had not permitted them to possess nuclear weapons and missiles, the DPRK unofficially acquired the de facto status of “nuclear power state”. If the United States, Japan, and South Korea are unable to begin negotiations with the DPRK again, they will have to reluctantly revert to the previous approach of employing “strategic patience”, the carrot-and-stick approach that goes back to the Obama administration.
Here I would like to remind the reader of former South Korean President Park Geun-hye’s vision for peace and cooperation in Northeast Asia. Park Geun-hye believed that there was a lack for trust between the DPRK, and the ROK and its allies. The DPRK had long sought a meeting with the United States, which had been repeatedly declined by the latter. This reveals Pyongyang’s lack of understanding: there can be no relationship without mutual trust. Park Geun-hye believed that confidence would have to be built and supported through negotiations before mutual assistance could ever be provided or solicited. This is the thrust of the “Seoul Process” initiated by Mrs. Park.
She proposed that ROK could help end North Korea’s deliberate recession and make concessions to provide help during crises instead of completely abandoning the North. Consideration would be given to what kind of influence ROK could have and what channels they might employ, in order for the region to move away from constant instability. There were many sectors on which to cooperate and many common problems to address that went far beyond military politics. Among these were energy, the environment, the bird flu crisis, culture, and sports. Mrs. Park made her position clear at a time when the world saw the DPRK as a country that was always in need of help. Since 1997, South Korea has implemented an assistance policy towards North Korea. What we have seen over the many years that have passed is that internal affairs cannot be changed simply through foreign help. It is necessary for North Korea itself to create an environment that is accepting of international aid, rather than attempting to get it through threats. Mrs. Park’s Seoul Process stated that the DPRK’s demonstration of its efforts to meet UN requirements on human rights, fundamental freedoms, and respect for gender equality would increase the chances of them receiving international assistance.
Furthermore, the project was initiated by the South to help North Korea’s vulnerable groups, namely its children, and women. If the North tried to threaten them with the use of weapons, these programs would not be implemented. If the North made such threats, the ROK government would limit its reach-out to the North, warned Park when she was in office. What did North Korea look like? The governing propaganda of North Korean society seemed to be “never be mesmerized by the South’s shiny development!” The countries that North Korea is threatening with its weapons have already attained a high level of development and have provided their people with a plentiful life. The DPRK however, has suffered from hunger with tens of thousands of people dying of starvation. Also, its economy has not been able to find stability. It possesses a highly inefficient economy and there is much evidence of this. According to the Russians, who played a key role in providing economic assistance to North Korea before the collapse of the Soviet Union, 70–80% of factories have shut down in North Korea in 1992–1995. These factories were put out of commission when Soviet economic aid was discontinued. 90% of the population was thrown into extreme poverty and 95% of GDP was spent on debt settlements.
Before Park Geun-hye resigned and went to jail, she warned of the fact that North Korea was a country that is totally different to the modern world. The current president Moon Jae-in sees his neighbors in a more favorable light and displays a friendly attitude. He has urged the DPRK to start a partnership; however, the process has been disrupted for now. The sentiment coming out of most countries is for these disruptions to end. They want to see the start of a bilateral partnership in Korea regardless of the DPRK’s relationship with the United States.
The DPRK’s Impact on Countries in the Region
The two Koreas have worked together with the United States and China in the hope of ending the Korean War, which began in the 1950s, and establishing sustained peace and stability. Steady and persistent peace is yet to be established, but the first steps have already been made. The staging of weapons tests and war games has been discontinued. The two countries have ceased hostile activities, reinforced their borders, established border crossings, and sought to commence multilateral negotiations. The world is waiting for the opening of the railroad and the road connecting the two Koreas. The South Korean President Moon Jae-in has chosen the right course. According to the Russian press, the two Koreas have shown some good signs in building infrastructure links.
Some Russian publications on Korean studies wrote that a Russian-Chinese issue was likely to arise as a result of the Korean Peninsula dispute. According to the Russians, the Chinese leader Xi Jinping is preventing the two countries from merging into one. If Kim and Trump became comrades, they would create a new “Communist capitalist Korea” in the north and confiscate their weapons; the very weapons that would be necessary instruments to hold the United States at bay. Although Pyongyang’s leader is difficult to read, he listens to what Beijing says. Once in the past, China had fought for North Korea’s independence and had suffered a great deal. Therefore, Russian authorities and researchers predicted that China would not be happy with the integration of the two Koreas. However, to stop North Korea going nuclear, China would pay more money than the West ever could; enough for North Korea to effectively overcome any sanctions.
Moreover, Russians are worried about what will happen next. Due to sudden developments such as the deeper US involvement in the Korean Peninsula, the Russians do not want to see China lose control in the matter. The Russian press once reported that Trump changes his position and views three times a day, a quality which could directly affect the Korean issue. However, according to the Chinese, based on their experience, perestroika1 must be brought about differently from what the Soviet Union went through. If China takes the lead in initiating reform in the DPRK, Russia will be presented with a lot of opportunities. No Korean railway project can be implemented without Russia. If Russia and China take part in North Korea’s perestroika, the West will not take the lead.
China’s Experience Might Suit North Korea
China’s reforms are not aimed at changing the power and control of the political regime and the communist party, but instead, to deploy the poor, to open their eyes and to slowly adapt to the world. North Korea’s population is half the size of South Korea’s and if the two countries were to be united, the North might be assimilated into the South. Perhaps Russia and China are worried that DPRK citizens would be shocked to witness the more advanced development of the South. In 2018, North Korea was the world’s most interesting topic. The leaders of the two Koreas met twice. The leaders of North Korea and the United States also met and this changed everyone’s expectations. A meeting between the North Korean and Japanese authorities may be on the horizon. A country, in which the security of society was guaranteed by a single political party and its leader’s strict governance, suddenly opened its doors to the world. In a sense, this constituted a threat to their existence. On the other hand, it is worth remembering that that placing high expectations and excessive pressure on North Korea to reform could drive the country deeper into isolation.
With this new situation in mind, we can make alterations to Mongolia’s initiatives towards the DPRK. Mongolia is a neutral country with no political dispute with its neighbors. It has had partnerships with North Korea for 70 years. In this spirit, Mongolia may need to look back at its policies and approaches towards North Korea, to discover new cooperation tactics and options and to decide on a course of action. This will inform Mongolia’s adjustment of its amicable approach to North Korea as well as its cooperation with other regional neighbors and new partners.
The Standpoint of the United States
Until recently, the positions of the United States and South Korea towards the DPRK were very clear. Then US president Barack Obama and former ROK president Park Geun-hye had agreed to uphold long-standing policies aimed at pressuring the DPRK to discontinue what they considered to be deliberate attempts to create crises in order to compromise stability in the region. It is evident that the repetitive “Provocation-Ban-Talk-Compromise-Support” cycle was becoming ineffective in the Korean Peninsula. This is a political cycle that lasted until 2018. The previous Government of South Korea had devised a new approach, dubbed the “Seoul Process” with the hope of building trust, balance, and bilateral relations between the two Koreas. However, the sole ally and supplier of North Korea, China had been actively engaging in the UN sanctions against the DPRK. North Korea and China’s relations had soured as a result. At the same time, there had been no fundamental change in China’s strategy towards North Korea. Pyongyang remained in strong opposition to the U.S. and South Korea, but Kim Jong-Un was facing new challenges. Ultimately, he understood that the future held little choice but to consider reform and a more open policy.
Putin’s New Game
At the end of April 2019, the North Korean leader arrived in Russia for a summit with President Vladimir Putin, just two months after his meeting with US President Donald Trump in Vietnam had ended abruptly. Analysts say the timing of the Russia-North Korea summit served as a reminder to Washington that the North Korean leader had other options in the region backing his leadership.
The failed summit in Vietnam meant that Kim was unable to get the sanctions relief he sought from the United States. It was unlikely that he would get that in his meetings with Putin as well.
But while Russia fully enforces on Pyongyang the UN sanctions it had voted for, it has joined China in calling for reducing the punishment in recognition of steps taken buy North Korea to limit weapons testing.
The Kremlin considered this visit a key development in the settlement of the Korean nuclear crisis. “At the center of attention will be the political and diplomatic solution to the Korean Peninsula’s nuclear problem,” Putin’s aide Yuri Ushakov told a news conference in April 2019. Putin’s spokesperson Dmitri Peskov said that the two leaders planned to discuss “bilateral ties”, followed by “issues of denuclearization and regional partnership”.
The President of Russia does not seem to be a believer in Washington’s use of sanctions as a political tool. However, he is simultaneously cautious about making any big new commitments, analysts say, as he attended a major international meeting on China’s “Belt and Road” initiative in April 2019 in Beijing.
Mongolia’s Views and Involvement
Our aim should always be to focus on how Mongolia and South Korea can work together to bring the DPRK closer to the world and strengthen the path towards peace. First and foremost, Ulaanbaatar and Seoul will need to conduct a joint study, examining what they want to achieve, and what kind of cooperation they will attract. This must then be tabled and translated into state policy. Involving North Korea in regional artistic, sporting, humanitarian, and diplomatic events and attracting as much multilateral cooperation as possible, is better than persecuting the DPRK. Young Kim has distinguished himself from his father and grandfather. His recent adoption of policies empowering farming units for production, and his incentives for the distribution of financial income have been carried out in a similar fashion as during Mongolia’s communist regime. Therefore, experts from North Korea’s economic planning and management sectors could potentially benefit from visiting Mongolia to attend short-term training programs. However, rushing the DPRK in this direction would be a wrong move.
The DPRK is becoming more attracted to economic models that have beneficial effects in the short term: the expansion of the market economy might weaken their social control and threaten their political system. One of these attractive models could be a joint venture abroad. Part of the North Korean labor force could be employed in agricultural in the eastern region of Mongolia with the assistance of the Korea International Cooperation Agency (KOICA2). Mongolia-ROK-DPRK joint ventures in agriculture and the manufacturing of ecologically sustainable agricultural products could be possible. The cultural sector offers yet another opportunity for Mongolia, North Korea, and South Korea to cooperate as seen by the registration of Kaesong city as UNESCO World Heritage Site. Mongolia needs to support the idea.
The city was a main node in the relationship between Mongolia and Korea during the Yuan Dynasty. The reason why it has been named a site of world cultural heritage is because it is the home to two great shrines; that of the Mongolian royalty Nunchig Bortomor and King Kongmin, of ancient Korea. It is also recognized as one of the world’s longest-standing links between the two sides of Korea and gained worldwide recognition as a North-South joint venture. If the United States, North Korea, South Korea, and China agree to turn the 1953 Korean Armistice Agreement into a peace treaty, it will be a good move for our country to initiate a draft resolution at the United Nations on the non-alignment of states with nuclear-weapon-free status. Mongolia will certainly support the proposal of the South Korean Government to make Kaesong city an international peace park. Kaesong has the opportunity to become an area for tourist travel, and to be a platform to support public diplomacy efforts.
The Outlook
Kim Jong-Un and Donald Trump’s meeting had no conclusion, as it had not met the expectations of the global community with respect to the Korean Peninsula. There will have to be a worldwide effort to soften North Korea’s stance on nuclear weapons, to draw them into the international community, to stimulate international integration, and to strengthen the Korean Peninsula’s stability and inter-Korean bilateral cooperation. To summarize, in the modern age of globalization, interdependence and economic ties supersede national boundaries. Regional actors, including the East Asian Economic Community, are developing at great speed, as can be seen from China’s rapid economic growth, integration, and multilateralism. It is hoped that Kim Jong-Un will realize the true cost of maintaining the military, its weapons, and militarization in general. His father had held two Korean summit meetings and had invited then South Korean President Kim Dae Jung to Pyongyang, much like how Kim had invited South Korea’s current President to Pyongyang himself. He was seen as a leader who could be relied upon. I am sure he will overcome his country’s troubles.
The year 2018 was a highlight in the history of North Korea. At the beginning of 2018, the country officially announced its nuclear weapons capability and tested intercontinental ballistic missiles. Its armed forces, tankers, cannons, planes, and small fleets have shown that the Korean People’s Army should now be considered a powerful and nuclear-armed force in Asia, in particular in East Asia. North Korea is the fourth most militarized country in the world. The DPRK comes in right after China, Russia, and the United States. The North Korea-US, summit in Singapore, the meeting of the leaders of the two Koreas, as well as Kim Jong-Un’s visits to China are all highlights of the DPRK’s history in the year 2018. This is the beginning of a great period in history. The story continued in 2019 with a subsequent DPRK-US summit. Progress has been temporarily delayed, but it will resume.
1 The Merriam-Webster Dictionary defines perestroika as follows.
per·e·stroi·ka | \ ˌper-ə-ˈstrȯi-kə: the policy of economic and governmental reform instituted by Mikhail Gorbachev in the Soviet Union during the mid-1980s
2 The Korea International Cooperation Agency (KOICA) was established in 1991 by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of South Korea as a governmental organization for Official Development Assistance (ODA) to enhance the effectiveness of South Korea’s grant aid programs for developing countries by implementing the government’s grant aid and technical cooperation programs.
Dashdorj Bayarkhuu (born May 4, 1956) is a Mongolian research professor, columnist & writer and former Ambassador of Mongolia to Egypt. Prior to his nomination to the ambassadorial position, Bayarkhuu worked in media, defense, diplomatic and educational sectors. After his tenure as Ambassador in Cairo, Bayarkhuu returned to academic field as a Visiting Professor of International Politics and Contracted Researcher.
During his tenure in Egypt, he also acted as Concurrent Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary to State of Kuwait in 2009, First Concurrent Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary to Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in 2009–2014, Concurrent Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary to Islamic Republic of Iran in 2012–2015 and was responsible of serving at 14 countries in Middle East. He summarized incidents of Arab Spring that took place in the Middle East and published two books, the first ever publication about Arabian history in Mongolian.
After returning from Cairo, he was invited as guest professor to many institutes and schools where he delivered presentations about diplomatic studies and Arabian spring. In 2013–2014, he worked as Chief Editor of Britannica’s Edition on the Foreign Policy of Mongolia at NEPKO Publishing in Ulaanbaatar. He is the author and biographer of the book “Jambyn Batmunkh”, a NEPKO Publishing’s publications on another diplomatic person’s life.
He received a Professor in International politics from Academy of Sciences in 2003. Field of Research Specializations of prof. D.Bayarkhuu: Foreign policy analysis, foreign policy-making process, history of diplomacy, contemporary international relations, contemporary international studies, geopolitics and security, comparative politics, communist studies and transition politics, sinology and oriental studies.
Current academic activities: Contracted researcher at Institute for Strategic Studies, National Security Counsel of Mongolia; Contracted researcher at Institute of International Relations, Academy of Sciences of Mongolia; Visiting professor and editor at National Academy of Governance, Government of Mongolia; Professor at Guren Graduate Institute; Columnist and member of the board, the Government Newspaper.
