Senate races 2020 — December outlook

As of December 2019, there are 53 Republicans and 45 Democrats in the United States Senate, along with two independents who vote with the Democrats almost all the time. So, to take control of the Senate, the Democrats need to gain three seats (if the Democrats win the presidency) and four (if they do not).

In this story, I’ll take a broad look at all the races. I’ll write other stories on the competitive races.

Overall outlook

There are 35 seats up in 2020: The usual 33 seats for what are known as “Class 2” seats (that is, the elections of 2020, 2014, 2008 and so on) plus the seat in Arizona to replace the late John McCain and one in Georgia to replace Johnny Isakson, who is retiring. Of those 35, the Republicans have 23 and the Democrats 12. In addition, the 2014 election was a non-presidential year and a very good year for Republicans. Those are positive signs for the Democrats.

In addition, the Trump presidency is a drag on Republican chances in close seats. Trump appeals most to the “base” of the Republican party and less to moderates and swing voters. That may mean that Republican senators win landslides in states that were never going to be close and have a tough time in the swing seats. On the other hand, right now the economy is good, which usually favors incumbents and the party that…