Do forests die? Even if they do, what does it have to do with me?
The aversion to the contemplation of death is a common sentiment, yet the intriguing question arises: do forests, in their grandeur, experience a form of demise? It’s not uncommon for us to observe the withering of a plant in our garden or witness the fading vitality of a tree following the autumnal transition. However, the linkage of terms like “death” or, in a more technical sense, “mortality” with expansive forests may not be an immediate connection for many.
Despite the confines of our imaginative walls, the ominous toll of the death bell resonates within the heart of the forest. Leaving aside the imposing scientific jargon, let’s simplify — a forest is a vast expanse dominated by trees. I mentioned earlier that forests experience a form of death, but perhaps I didn’t emphasize it enough.
Let’s take a step back and revisit my gardening allegory to illustrate how forests embrace death. Now, as I ponder, do forests truly embrace death? I mean, I haven’t come across anyone who has engaged in a conversation with a forest (except Bolai, a character from a short story by Rabindranath Tagore). Banal, unrelatable jokes apart, if you have ever had a plant, what are the common causes of its death? Not watering the plant regularly perhaps, or a seedling being uprooted by whiplashing wind, or maybe a tiny insect acting as the agent of chaos. The story of forest mortality is exactly this but on a slightly larger scale. The lack of water is less of a manual error due to a busy corporate schedule and more of less rainfall, high temperatures leading to drought, the whiplashing wind is a windthrow event, and for the tiny insect you can ask any forester in Central Europe about bark beetles (they’ll have a story to share).
Now, what do I have to do with forest mortality? Let me introduce myself. This is Agnish Kumar Das from the land of diversity (Columbus thought it was gold and landed in Steven Wilson’s “Arriving somewhere but not here”), India. If you have come across Instagram memes on frustrated Ph.D. students, you can think of me as any one of the protagonists of those 30-second-long videos. However, luckily (I should not curse it), I do enjoy my Ph.D. in Prague at the Czech University of Life Sciences. What do I work on? Yes, you guessed it right, forest mortality.
I am an aspiring forest ecologist who likes to view the forest up-close and through the mysterious lines of computer codes and models.
The study of forest mortality is expansive in its own right, but my focus is on something more specific.
The initial segment of my study satisfies my scientific curiosity, while the latter part, also driven by scientific interest, delves into the human predicament arising from forest mortality.
Forest mortality modelling
Does the heading sound like this segment will be laced with mathematical and statistical functions? Don’t worry, I have no intention to scare you away from my story. Let us begin by asking ourselves a very simple question: what is a model? What first comes to your mind when you hear the word “model”? If you ask me, it has got nothing to do with science. When I think of the word, model, I am immediately transported back in time (A time machine could be something related to science, though :P) to my childhood and I can almost through the morning fog of memories see myself clearly play with a Batman figurine.
Ecological models aren’t dissimilar from the Batman figurine. Various processes operate concurrently, and ecological models strive to comprehend these processes, presenting the associated complexities in a manner that is palatable to the human mind. Ecological models also help us in projecting what the future of a particular ecosystem (let’s say, Forest) would look like if some of the processes associated with its structure and function were to change.
We look at drought, which refers to a period of time characterized by low precipitation, higher temperatures leading to a condition that is drier than normal. With climate change playing its quirky diabolical games (by the way, climate change is real; anyone who says it isn’t, is in internet lingo, a red flag), the possibilities of drought and forest mortality due to drought are unknown (trying to be politically correct, there are peer-reviewed studies supporting the fact that they are projected to increase). Here’s where the model comes into play. We can use these ecological models to understand what could happen if we ask it to prepare results in accordance with our scenarios. That begs an important question: There are many models, which one do we trust?
In simpler terms, that is my research question. Let’s think of Batman again. How would you determine if the Batman figurine that you are playing with is an accurate model of the original Batman? You can easily compare it with Christian Bale (he’s the original Batman; it’s not George Clooney or worse, Ben Affleck). This is what I do. I am trying to use various models to simulate forest mortality caused by drought in reality and see which one comes close to Christian Bale!
Humans, Ecosystem Services, Forest Mortality:
Once upon a time, Nature organized a competition with the aim of determining which species on Earth is the most self-centered. No prizes for guessing, we won the competition with flying colours. Hence, here we are with the last section of this blog. Forest mortality affects us in more ways than you think of. It affects our physical health with regard to the air we breathe, it affects our mental health with regard to what we see around us, and it affects us economically as well. Economically, a lot of people (they are disadvantaged people if you look at India’s forest communities) depend on forests for not only subsistence through fruits, fodder, fuelwood, but also for revenue through timber, non-wood forest products, etc.
So, therefore if forests were to die, how would the lives of the people (also governments and industries) be altered? That is the second question that I will try to answer in my Ph.D. by looking at two key variables, namely, timber production due to forest mortality, and the recreational value of a forest experiencing mortality.
That’s the intricacies of the arduous journey that beckons me in a blog that can be read in five minutes. I hope this blog has been understandable for the uninitiated and will inspire them to delve into further reading. Enjoy your time until I return with the next blog.
