Plant Migration: Will plants be able to migrate or adapt to changing conditions
Climate plays a major role in determining the potential distribution of tree species across the globe. It is generally known the plant species often reflect the climatic conditions that surround them, either tolerating or thriving in conditions that would otherwise be unsuitable for other genera(Kasper et al 2022, Koch et al 2022, Sykes 1996). This ecological niche separation among plants species aids in the biodiversity and differentiation of forest ecosystems in Europe. This results in drought-tolerant and thermophilous species dominating the dry and warm regions of Europe, while more frost-tolerant hardy species prevail in colder areas. Thus examining the distribution of certain tree species we can also uncover the general distribution of climate patterns as well. This can be highly important in a changing world especially as global climatic patterns are rapidly changing(IPCC 2022). Changes in the distribution of prominent European tree species can already be seen in the “rear- edge” and treeline communities. Several studies have shown range shifts of cold adapted tree species towards higher elevations and latitudes; while others have shown differences in growth rate due to drought(Harsch et al 2009, Kullman and Oberg 2009, Kasper et al 2022). This supports the hypothesis that the global climate is warming and that it has a profound effect on the distribution of plants. It can be assumed that with increasing global changes the potential distribution of prominent tree species will also undergo change. There have already been attempts to predict the shifting range of plants according to climate change. Several studies have used niche-based species distribution models to predict the likelihood for range shifts and found that approximately 94% of the forested area of Europe will experience some degree of range shift and habitat loss with the greatest intensity being found among temperate and boreal tree species (Han et al 2021, Ohlemuller et al 2006,Keenan et al 2021 ).
Migration however is a difficult trait to measure among plants as this process can take decades to centuries to see significant shifts. This is important to consider where suitable areas of habitation will be for prominent forest ecosystems and will these ecosystems be able to get there?
The work of my PhD will be to assess the migratory abilities of several European forest plants, especially functional reproductive traits such seed size and seed weight, that help identify potential risk for certain species. This research will suggest where forest ecosystems will be in the future and assess whether or not they will be able to migrate there.
