A Simple Take on Measuring AI Progress

The way futurists tell it, AGI (Artificial General Intelligence) is either around the corner or never going to happen. Part of the problem with predicting AI progress is that AI is hard to quantify. It’s not like CPU progress, which we can approximate using Moore’s Law. Ray Kurzweil attempted to use Moore’s Law, though, to extrapolate AI gains and predict we’d have approximated human brains by 2020. But that extrapolation…