Is Science Slowing Down?
The short answer is No
It’s true that in some domains, like physics, discovery is nearing completion. Either we’ll find a Theory of Everything soon, or we’ll soon discover that we can’t find it. But either way, we’re closer to the end of physics than the beginning. And it’s the same with Moore’s Law. We’re closer to the end of processor innovation than we are to the start.
But in other domains, like computer science, we’re closer to the beginning. First, computer science has sub-sciences that are still in their infancy. For example, A.I. is literally only capable of creating sub-infant-level intelligences today.
The Atlantic article that is fueling the science-in-decline meme, focuses on return-on-investment. The ROI for science seems to be decreasing. But I believe that ROI depends on which science you look at. Furthermore, it also depends on what you mean by return. “Return” is one of those super-flexible terms, like “value,” “happiness,” and “success,” where you can bend its definition to nearly any context.
If I define “return” as “mind-blowing discovery or invention” then in my lifetime (I’m 36), I’ve witnessed the following great returns:
- The Internet
- Wikipedia
- Mobile Computers
