There Is No Fire Alarm for Alien Invasion, Either
Imagine a hundred spaceships come out of warp near Alpha Centauri, 4.5 light years away. Our smartest astrophysicists believe the ships are approaching Earth, and that they will arrive within our vicinity between 10 and 70 years from now. A year later, one of the ships destroys a moon along the way.
Thus far, we know the aliens have super-human capabilities and a capacity for destruction. We can’t communicate with them, and we don’t know for sure if they’re directly headed toward Earth, but close enough. We are the only salient astronomical object worth visiting in their trajectory.
What would you say is the probability that by the end of the century, they destroy humanity? I would not assign it 33%. I would definitely prepare as if it were 50%, and I’d ask the world to commit to moonshots upon moonshots in order to protect us. But I wouldn’t say the odds of annihilation are high.
If you recall, this analogy is similar to Stuart Russell’s in the MIRI essay, “There’s No Fire Alarm for Artificial General Intelligence:”
… if you get radio signals from space and spot a spaceship there with your telescopes and you know the aliens are landing in thirty years, you still start thinking about that today. You’re not like, “Meh, that’s thirty years off, whatever.” You certainly don’t casually…
