Q1 2024 in six charts
The mantra of “survive to ‘25” has been ringing in our ears for some time now, but what are some of the early data from Q1 2024 saying about how the expected year-to-forget is unfolding?
EUROPEAN CONSUMER SENTIMENT INCREASES SLIGHTLY
Although still below its long-term average, European consumer sentiment, as measured by the European Commission’s “Directorate General for Economic and Financial Affairs”, continues its upward trajectory to 96.2 from a Q3 2023 low of 93.2.
MEDIAN POST-MONEY VALUATION AT SEED STAGE PASSES £10 MILLION
Despite ongoing talk of the “VC winter” tethered to a shakedown of global capital markets, Q1 2024 saw the highest median post-money valuation for seed-stage start-ups, surpassing £10 million for the first time (according to PitchBook data). Series A has bounced around £33 million for the past year, while Series B also attained an all-time high in 2024’s opening quarter (£117.97 million).
QUARTERLY PROPTECH+CONTECH VC FUNDING RESEMBLES PRE-BOOM ERA
Following the 2019–22 venture investment boom (split by the coronavirus pandemic), venture funding has returned to more modest levels, and Q1 remained no different. PitchBook data indicates £1.14 billion was invested in proptech and contech in 2024’s opening quarter, reminiscent of quarterly volumes in 2023 and 2017. Accounting for venture-wide valuations above, this suggests investors remain bullish on high-conviction start-ups. In other words, a “flight to quality” appears to be well underway, where there is less investment in total, but higher valuations for the fewer start-ups receiving investment.
CHATGPT ONLINE SEARCH INTEREST REACHES A NEW HIGH
Proving itself to be a stickier product than previously hyped technologies, OpenAI’s ChatGPT continues to break its own records in online search activity. Q1 2024 saw a revised peak emerge for the platform, and it now boasts upwards of 100 million weekly active users. Giving rise to the genAI boom, ChatGPT has precipitated a wave of specialist genAI tools aiming to fill the gaps on what a generalist tool like ChatGPT is less effective at achieving. A number of these use cases are relevant to the built world. Although genAI will likely see the end of some roles, it is also interesting to see how it is being used up and down the organisational hierarchy in order to improve productivity.
UK CONSTRUCTION BUSINESSES STILL NOT BORROWING MUCH
Unsurprisingly, given plateaued interest rates, UK construction firms are not borrowing much more than recent months. Modest numbers are notably seen among large construction businesses. Now that inflation numbers are more agreeable in many jurisdictions, there is growing confidence in central bank rate cut(s) through the remainder of 2024. Likely to prompt higher volumes of construction activity, interest rate cuts will need to be accompanied by higher levels of investment in proven use cases to prevent an upswing in carbon emissions in the construction sector, such as those identified in our recent paper Sustainably intelligent: AI for a greener built world.
GOOD NEWS FOR UK OFFICE OCCUPANCY
According to Remit Consulting, “UK office occupancy levels have hit the highest weekly figure since the start of the pandemic” in March 2024. A measurement of bums-in-seats rather than the presence or absence of a paying occupier, it is possible that this boost in occupancy accompanies a rebalance of power between employer and employee, where more difficult employment conditions reduce the negotiating power of workers who would prefer hybrid and remote working arrangements.
