Clarke Schmidt is a 5th starter option for the Yankees
Since Frankie Montas will miss at least the first month of the season due to shoulder inflammation the Yankees will have to go to their depth at starting pitching to begin the season.
It was just revealed on Saturday that Montas was not recovered from his injury after it was previously thought that he was going to be healthy going into spring training. His shoulder injury, which he originally had when he was with the Athletics, led to him pitching much worse in 2022 with the Yankees than he did when he was pitching with Oakland.
Montas struggled to a 6.35 ERA in eight starts for the Yankees after being acquired at the deadline last season, and he developed shoulder issues that wound up limiting him to a single one-inning relief appearance in the playoffs. Those shoulder troubles haven’t gone away, and he’s reportedly 8-to-10 weeks behind in his offseason program as a result.
Montas had an impressive 3.18 ERA in 19 starts before being traded to the Yankees and in 2021 he finished 6th in Cy Young voting when he had a very good and at times dominant 3.37 ERA in his 32 starts with Oakland. The Yankees could have the best rotation or second best behind the Astros if Montas could perform for the Yankees like he did in 2021 and 2022 with Oakland.
On Friday, the Yankees avoided arbitration with Montas signing him to a $7.5 million contract. He likely would have been paid more if not for his shoulder issues. Montas was the Yankees top pitching acquisition at the trade deadline after missing out on Luis Castillo but he was not able to gave the rotation a boost at all.
The shoulder issues he had with Oakland did not go away and it only continued with the Yankees. He missed two weeks with the Athletics after being forced to leave his started on July 3. After having a 6.35 ERA in eight starts in which he allowed at least four runs in five of his eight starts, he landed on the 15-day injured list after his start on September 20 when an MRI showed inflammation in that shoulder after that day’s start in Milwaukee.
Something that has somewhat salvaged the trade is that the Yankees also got back Lou Trivino, who pitched well out of the bullpen. After having a 6.47 ERA in 39 games with the Athletics, he dominated with the Yankees with a 1.66 ERA in 25 games with 22 strikeouts and just one homer allowed in his 21.2 innings after the trade. The Yankees avoided arbitration with Trivino earlier in the offseason when the two sides agreed to a $4.1 million contract for 2023.
The decision to trade for Montas has not been a good one so far since he has been damaged goods since his injury was still affecting him when he was pitching for the Yankees. It is possible that the trade can still be a success if he can return the beginning to middle of May and pitch well for a good portion of the season. This would give the Yankees a very deep rotation.
If Montas can return towards the beginning of May then they would be fine with Clarke Schmidt in the rotation until then. Domingo German is another option, but the Yankees should go with Schmidt instead. It will likely be a spring training competition between the two if they do not acquire another starting pitcher, which is unlikely unless it is determined that Montas’s injury is more severe.
German should stay as the sixth starter so he is ready in case of an injury. In 2022, Schmidt had his best of his three MLB seasons when he had a very productive 3.12 ERA with 56 strikeouts, just five homers allowed, a 125 ERA+ (100 is league average), a 3.60 FIP and a 1.197 WHIP in 57.2 innings pitched. He pitched in 29 games with three of those being starts.
He did show promise and pitch well in the bullpen, but that doesn’t mean he will not be able to transition back to being a starting pitcher. Before the 2022 season, the 2017 first round pick of the Yankees pitched in two games in 2021 (5.68 ERA) and three games in 2020 (7.11 ERA). Schmidt has excellent potential and the Yankees should be able to rely on him to at least be average, which is better than what Montas was with the Yankees last season.
In his junior season at South Carolina, Schmidt showed his dominance when he had an outstanding 1.34 ERA with 70 strikeouts, a 0.978 WHIP, 10.4 strikeouts per nine innings and just three homers allowed in 60.1 innings pitched (nine starts). His junior season was cut short since he would need Tommy John surgery, which meant he did not make his minor league debut with the Yankees until 2018 when he pitched in eight games.
In the 2019 minor league season he had an impressive 3.47 ERA in his first full pro season. He threw three games at Double-A, 13 games at High-A and three in rookie league that season and his total stats were 28 walks, 102 strikeouts and just four homers allowed in 90.2 innings with a 1.180 WHIP and 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings.
In 2020, he pitched in three games with the Yankees and did not pitch in the minors since the minor league season was canceled due to the pandemic.
In 2021, in 10 games (nine starts) across four minor league levels with eight of those games combined coming at Double-A and Triple-A, he had a dominant 2.37 ERA in 38 innings with 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings, a 1.158 WHIP, 12 walks and 46 strikeouts in 38 innings.
In 2022, Schmidt had a 3.27 ERA in eights starts with Triple-A Scranton. He would pitch the rest of his season up with the Yankees with many of his games with the Yankees being multiple inning appearances.
Last season, in 16 of his 27 games in the regular season he pitched at least 2.0 innings. In those 16 games, he allowed zero earned runs in 11 of those games. His most innings pitched in a game last season was 4.1 innings, which he did twice in back-to-back games (8/28 and 9/3), and he allowed four earned runs and eight hits in the first one at Oakland and two earned runs on four hits at Tampa Bay.
It is a positive that he was better in his second 4.1 inning pitched game than his first one. In the game at Tropicana Field, he got his second consecutive start (he had two total in the season) and did a good job keeping the team in the game. The only runs the scored off of him were an RBI single by Yandy Diaz in the third inning. He did well limiting his pitch count to 63 (48 strikes) in 4.1 innings but Aaron Boone decided to go with a rested bullpen. his season high in pitches last season was 80 in the other 4.1 inning game.
In his next games after allowing two runs in 4.1 innings against the Rays he was able to pitch very well as he did not allow a run in 3.0 innings while allowing just two hits and one walk. He pitched 3.0 innings five times and 3.1 innings once last season and impressively did not allow a run in any of those games while striking out 21 batters in those 18.1 innings.
Last season’s success at Triple-A and his success in multiple inning appearances with the Yankees are indications that he can be a successful starter in the rotation for the first month to month and to month and a half of the season.
In 2022, Schmidt relied primarily on his slider (86mph) and sinker (95mph), while also mixing in a curve (84mph) and fourseam Fastball (95mph). He also rarely threw a Change (90mph). He does have an arsenal of a pitcher who can be a successful starting pitcher and this could be his last chance to prove he can be one. If he can pitch well replacing Montas in the rotation they could use him as a trade piece before the trade deadline.
The Yankees will likely not name a fifth starter until the end of spring training. German did have a very solid 3.61 ERA (15 games and 14 starts) last season in 72.1 innings but he was lucky since his FIP was 4.44. Schmidt should get the first chance at starting and then German should fill his spot in the rotation if Schmidt struggles in April.
