I predict that the Yankees will win the ALCS against the Astros in 6 games
Tonight the Yankees will begin a series that nobody would have predicted them to play in when they entered the wild card game and especially before the season begin. They will play the 101-win Houston Astros and will look to upset them as the underdog just like they did in the series against the Cleveland Indians.
The Yankees are facing Dallas Keuchel tonight, who is Houston’s ace. He is one of the best pitchers in the American League and dominated the Yankees in the 2015 season as well as during the wild card game in 2015. However, Keuchel did not have as much success this season as he did in 2015 and the Yankees have a much better offense than they did two years ago.
Keuchel stats this season were still very impressive, and he is still a fearsome pitcher. This season he had a 2.90 ERA, 1.12 WHIP, 125 strikeouts and 47 walks. The Yankees have already proven that they can hit the opposing teams ace in the playoffs since against the Indians they scored nine runs in 6.1 innings pitched in two starts.
The Astros bolstered their rotation before September with the addition of the veteran Justin Verlander, but even with Verlander their rotation is a weakness of their team.
This season, Verlander had a mediocre 3.82 ERA and 1.28 WHIP in 28 starts with the Tigers and then in five starts with the Astros at the end of the season he had a 1.06 ERA after allowing only four earned runs in 34 innings. He was obviously reenergized by pitching for a contending team.
Even though the 34-year-old Verlander gives the Astros a quality №2 option in the rotation, the Yankees have had success against him in the past. In three starts against the Yankees from the 2014–2016 season, Verlander, who is in his 12th season full season, had a 3.98 ERA after allowing nine earned runs and five homers in 20.1 innings pitched.
Verlander has won the Rookie of the Year, Cy Young and has been an All-Star six times, but there are two more stats that prove how he has been an average pitcher against the Yankees.
These are his stats in 18 games against the Yankees offense:
He has given up a .266/.327/.443/.770 slash line and has allowed 18 homers, 20 doubles, 38 walks and 117 hits in 440 at-bats.
In his 18 starts, he has a 3.87 ERA, a 6–7 record, only 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings and a high 1.388 WHIP.
Also, a few of the more veteran Yankees have had success against Verlander. Todd Frazier has a .294 average in 17 at-bats with two homers against Verlander, Brett Gardner has a .269 average in 26 at-bats with a homer against Verlander, Chase Headley had a .400 average in 15 at-bats. Matt Holliday and Didi Gregorius have .429 and .333 averages respectively in less than 10 at-bats.
The other pitchers in the Astros rotation for this series will be Lance McCullers and Charlie Morton. McCullers had a 4.25 ERA in 22 games and Morton had a 3.62 ERA this season and allowed two earned runs on seven hits in only 4.1 innings in his start against the Red Sox in the ALDS.
Brad Peacock might get a start in the ALCS instead of McCullers. Peacock finished the season with a 3.00 ERA, but 21 of his appearances were as a starter and 13 were as a reliever. The Astros haven’t announced their Game Three or Game Four starters after Kechel and Verlander.
The Yankees should not have a problem scoring runs off of McCullers and Morton and the team has a history of success against Verlander. The Yankees will have the edge in starting pitching especially if Masahiro Tanaka, Luis Severino and CC Sabathia pitch the way they did in the ALDS.
The Yankees will also have the edge when it comes to the important bullpen aspect of the game. They have a deep bullpen and possibly one that is the best in the last 30 years. They have David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle and Aroldis Chapman who all pitched very well in the ALDS. Chad Green (1.83 ERA), Adam Warren (2.35 ERA) and Dellin Betances (2.87 ERA and 2.29 through September 2) all had impressive regular seasons with Betances having some control issues.
The Astros bullpen is solid but not nearly as deep as the one the Yankees have. Ken Giles had a productive season with a 2.30 ERA, 34 saves and 83 strikeouts. Chis Devenski had a 2.68 ERA and 100 strikeouts but Luke Gregerson had a 4.57 ERA and Joe Musgrove had a 4.77 ERA.
The one area where the Astros definitely have the edge is offense. They scored 896 runs, which is the most in the American League. They hit the second most homers in the league, had the most RBI, had the best on-base percentage and had the best slugging percentage.
They also had eight different players hit at least 15 homers and had four different players hit at least two homers. They probably had the deepest and most potent lineup in all of baseball. Houston also had seven players drive in at least 71 runs.
The Yankees could keep up in a slugfest but it is not as potent as Houston’s. They only had three players drive in at least 71 runs but did have seven players hit at least 15 homers, which is only one less than the Astros. The Yankees finished second in runs scored in the AL, first in homers, had the third best on-base percentage and the third best slugging percentage.
The Yankees have an MVP candidate in Aaron Judge who had a .284 average with 52 homers, 114 RBI and .627 slugging percentage during the regular season.
They were able to win the ALDS with Judge going one for 20 with 16 strikeouts. Gary Sanchez, who had a very productive offensive season with a .278 average, 33 homers and 90 RBI, was only 3–23 (.130) with two homers and three RBI. Those two players are due for more production in the ALCS.
Greg Bird finished the season going 11–27 (.407) with four doubles, four homers and 11 RBI. He had two homers and four RBI in the ALDS and the Yankees will be counting on him for production in the ALCS.
The defense aspect of the game is basically a wash since the Yankees had a .984 fielding percentage this season and the Astros had a .983 fielding percentage. The Yankees were 8th in the AL with 95 errors and the Astros were 9th with 99 errors.
If Keuchel is at the top of his game and Verlander is as successful as he was in September the Astros have a fearsome one and two in the rotation. However, that is unknown and the Yankees proved that they can hit quality arms in the series against the Indians.
The Astros had 10 more wins than the 91–71 Yankees but other than that the two teams are fairly evenly matched. With Joe Girardi and the intangibles that the Yankees team brings to the table it is realistic that the Yankees can win this series in six games. They will need to split the two games in Houston since they can’t expect to win three games in a row after being down 0–2 again.
I predict that they will win in six games and continue the storybook postseason that they are on. They have arrived one season earlier than many expected but the additions at the trade deadline to the bullpen and rotation and the emergence of the young players has made this a better season than expected.
Tanaka will get the start in Game One and he will look to repeat the performance he had in the ALCS when he did not allow a run in 7.0 innings and struck out seven.
