The Yankees should sign Carlos Rodon to improve their rotation
Carlos Rodon is the best starting pitcher available right now at this point in the offseason and the Yankees should sign him to improve the rotation for the regular season and then for the playoffs. He will be a big help in another potential series against the Houston Astros.
Rodon was drafted by the White Sox in the first round in 2014 as a highly rated prospect out of North Carolina State and made his debut in 2015 when he had a solid 3.75 ERA in 26 games (23 starts). Overall, in eight seasons, which includes 11 starts combined in 2019 and 2020, he has a 3.60 ERA in 152 games (147 starts) with 947 strikeouts in 847.1 innings, just 91 homers allowed, 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings, a 115 ERA+ and a 3.59 FIP.
However, after having between a 3.75 and a 4.18 ERA in his first four seasons and then just making those 11 starts combined in the 2019 and 2020 seasons, he has pitched like an ace in the last two seasons. This success in 2021 and 2022 has helped earn him a five to seven year contract. Spotrac projects that he will get a six-year, $195 million contract, which would have an average annual value of 32.5 million.
Rodon was an All-Star in 2021 and 2022, and those two seasons were his first All-Star campaigns of his career at ages 28 and 29. He is in his prime and his velocity and command are as good as it has ever been.
He finished fifth in Cy Young voting in 2021 when he had great 2.37 ERA in 24 starts with a very impressive 185 ERA+, a 0.957 WHIP, 12.6 strikeouts per nine innings, one shutout, just 2.4 walks per nine innings and 185 strikeouts in 132.2 innings. In 2022, when he finished sixth in Cy Young voting, his ERA was not as great as the previous season but was still impressively below 3.00 at 2.88 and he had a 2.25 FIP, which led the league, 12.0 strikeouts per nine innings, which led the league, a 140 ERA+ and a career-high 237 strikeouts in 178 innings.
With Jameson Taillon signing with the Cubs, the Yankees need to add someone to their rotation. Even though Nestor Cortes has been excellent in his year and a half in the Yankees rotation, it is not likely he will be able to repeat the season he had in 2022 when he had a 2.44 ERA in 28 starts. It seems like his ERA will likely be about 3.00 ERA next season, which is still really good but a step down from 2022.
If the Yankees can have a top four in their rotation of Gerrit Cole, Rodon, Cortes and the Luis Severino, they will be in very good shape. Cortes, who was the Yankees best pitcher overall in 2022 ahead of Cole, finished eighth in Cy Young voting in 2022 he has had success as a starter beyond the 2022 season since in 2021 he allowed two earned runs or less in 13 of his 14 starts. However, it is likely that the rest of the league will start to figure him out a little more in 2023.
It will really help the rotation to add Rodon, who has the potential of being a number one quality starter along with Cole, Cortes and at times Severino. Cole finished ninth in Cy Young voting just behind Cortes even though Cole had a 3.50 ERA and Cortes had a 2.44 ERA. Cole was much better in his first two seasons since he had ERAs of 2.84 and 3.23 when he finished top four in Cy Young voting in each season.
Part of the reason for Rodon’s improvement in the last two seasons with the White Sox and then the Giants is that his average fastball was 91.4 in 2019 and in the 2022 season it was 95.7 mph. The success of a starting pitcher is not all the speed of the fastball but it definitely helps when it is average in the mid 90s since that can in turn help the rest of the pitches even more.
His velocity dipped to its lowest of his career in 2019 and that was when his ERA rose to 5.19 in seven starts and then it was 8.22 in four games in 2020. He did have a major injury in 2019 also since he underwent Tommy John surgery on May 15, 2019 and missed the rest of the season.
However, his increase in velocity starting in 2021 helped his stats very much improve to a top of the rotation starter. On April 14, 2021, he pitched the 20th no-hitter in White Sox history in a game against Cleveland.
In 2022, Rodon primarily relied on his fourseam fastball (95) and slider (85 mph) while also mixing in a curve ball (80 mph) He throws a changeup very rarely. His addition would elevate the rotation to one of the best in all of baseball and give the team another pitcher they can really rely on after throwing 178 innings this season.
Taillon was a solid back end of the rotation starter last season in his second year with the team with a 3.91 ERA in 32 starts but Rodon would be a big upgrade over him. Signing Rodon would mean that Frankie Montas would essentially be the №5 starter. Montas, if he could regain his form from Oakland, would be the best №5 starter in the league since he had a 3.37 ERA in 32 starts with the Athletics in 2021 and a 3.18 ERA in 19 starts with the Athletics last season before not pitching well with the Yankees (6.35 ERA in eight starts) with his injury likely still affecting him.
