Democracy is on the ballot in Guatemala

Corruption and links between organized crime and politicians would make a “Bukele approach” a nightmare

Guatemalans head to elections Sunday for the second round of a presidential election that has been plagued by controversy and anti-democratic interference by establishment elites. Dark horse candidate Bernardo Arevalo, a center-leftist who has run an anti-corruption campaign, squares off against Sandra Torres, a former first lady representing the National Unity of Hope (UNE).

Not only will Guatemala’s democratic institutions meant to protect the voting process will be tested, but the election is also a referendum on autocratic backsliding. Torres has vowed to implement a series of Bukele-style crackdowns on civil society should she win.

The most recent polls show Arevalo considerably ahead, but polls have been wrong before — such as when Arevalo surprised observers on June 25 when he emerged from relative obscurity to take second place.

After Arevalo beat out several other right-wing candidates, some of them claimed fraud without any proof. In the following days, the Organization of American States (OAS) reported no widespread irregularities, and the result was finally upheld by Guatemalan election officials.