Is budget reconciliation our last hope for climate action?
Biden’s $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief bill is set to face its final vote in the United States House of Representatives, after barely passing a bitterly divided Senate on Saturday.
Not one Republican Congress member backed the measure, despite 76% of voters signaling support, including 60% of Republican voters. Though Democrats will likely push the bill through, this partisanship has got a lot of people wondering just how Biden will move forward with the rest of his agenda, specifically that concerning climate action.
There’s talk of eliminating the filibuster, continuing executive orders, or declaring a climate emergency, but none of these options are comprehensive nor permanent enough to offer lasting change. With an entire minority party either unwilling or incapable of passing climate legislation, there’s one last option: budget reconciliation.
Reconciliation, established by Congress in 1974 to avoid gridlock, provides a fast-track for the consideration of budget-related bills. Under this tool, Democrats need only a simple majority to pass legislation, rather than the 60 votes needed to break a filibuster.
This makes reconciliation seem attractive at face value, but bills passed through this process can only do so much.
For one, senators can only use it for one bill a year. Reconciliation bills also can’t make or change regulations — for example, Biden can establish a carbon tax or upgrade energy infrastructure, as his climate plan proposes, but he can’t ban fracking or limit emissions.
With this year’s chip spent on the COVID-19 relief bill, Democrats have, at most, two more reconciliation bills before another election. If Republicans flip enough seats in the 2022 midterms, this number could halve.
And while the climate crisis impacts every part of society — energy, defense, agriculture, housing, and civil rights — it may be hard to convince all 50 Democratic Senators to bypass other big issues, like voting rights, healthcare, and police reform.
Because of their slim majority in the Senate, Democrats need the support of every single party member to pass a bill this way — that includes moderate Joe Manchin (D-WV), who has already said he won’t push through Biden’s next big bill without GOP input.
“I’m not going to do it through reconciliation,” Manchin told Axios. “I am not going to get on a bill that cuts them out completely before we start trying.”
Manchin believes Dems can get at least 10 Republicans behind the next bill. But the party’s track record suggests otherwise: In 2018, House and Senate Republicans only voted for environmental legislation, on average, 8% of the time. And the trend isn’t promising outside of Washington, either: 12 states with GOP attorneys general are currently suing Biden over his first climate executive order.
Budget reconciliation won’t address every concern, and certainly won’t work for a Green New Deal, but it would get the U.S. moving. If Democrats choose this route, they can still tie clean energy standards to the tax system or create a renewable energy credit exchange program (both of which fall under budget resolutions).
Cooperation is necessary for the best climate response. But with their hands tied, Democrats might have to push legislation through when and where they can. Some moderates will hate it, so Democrats will have to at least try to pander to the GOP, but history shows that it might be for naught.
The climate crisis won’t wait for the Republican party to wise up — and reconciliation offers a way around.
