Global Music Revenues to Hit $100 Billion by 2031
MIDiA Research announces its latest global music forecasts report, the tenth year in which MIDiA has compiled music forecasts.
The “MIDiA Research 2024–2031 global music forecasts | Rise of the Global South” maps the size and structure of today’s business as well as proves forecasts of both the industry’s current revenue sources and new emerging sectors such as expanded rights and non-DSP streaming.
2023 was a positive year for the global recorded music market.
The market grew strongly, up 8.0% in retail terms to reach $58.1 billion.
Crucially, it was a year in which the industry demonstrated its ability to diversify revenue growth, with strong performance across streaming, physical, performance, and expanded rights.
Streaming remains the beating heart of revenue and will remain so for the period forecast in the report, but it now exists as part of a robust, diversified revenue portfolio.
Global revenues will reach $100 billion by 2031 in retail terms, inclusive of non-DSP streaming (platforms like TikTok) and expanded rights (labels’ revenues from merchandise, branding, and other non-music items).
Global music subscribers hit 737.9 million in 2023, adding more than in 2022. Music subscribers will break the one billion mark in 2027 and continue to grow.
One of the key themes of the report is the rise of Global South markets, with Asia Pacific in particular being crucial to the growth of music subscribers. Notably, China will become the second largest recorded music market by 2031 and also the second largest music subscription market. The US will remain the largest market on both counts due to further growth of already high average revenue per user (ARPU).
Streaming price increases will play a crucial role in future industry growth and MIDiA forecasts three separate sets of price increases between 2024 and 2031, as well as the introduction of a higher priced ‘super premium’ tier.
Mark Mulligan, founder and music industry analyst at MIDiA Research stated: “The music industry is at an inflection point. Strong growth lies ahead but the business of 2031 will be very different from that of 2024, with Global South markets rising to prominence and the wider industry increasingly monetising the fan economy rather than just today’s consumption-based streaming business.”
Tatiana Cirisano, senior music industry analyst at MIDiA Research also noted that: “while streaming remains the heart of the music business, a more diversified revenue portfolio is beginning to take shape. Over the next seven years, we will see a focus on monetising fandom, the de-Westernisation of music culture, and an increasingly bifurcated industry that separates passive, lean-back experiences from social, lean-forward exchanges.”
Perry Gresham, senior forecast and modelling analyst at MIDiA Research said: “We have expanded the depth of thinking in our forecasting process, considering more than 90 growth drivers and inhibitors, including the rise of AI music. While bifurcation is a potential headwind for subscription revenue, we still see significant growth ahead, with emerging markets growing the most in percentage terms and the US, China, and Japan adding the most revenue”
Go check out the free summary report, and if you’re a client, go check out the full thing!
