What’s in Store for DeFi in 2021 去中心化金融 2021年展望
Decentralised finance projects boomed in 2020. What can investors expect from it in these next 12-months? 去中心化金融项目在2020年增长迅猛。在接下来的12个月中，投资者可以从中获得什么期望？
Prior to 2020, many investors would be hard-pressed to find any astronomical rise in the value of any assets or the expansion of any financial ecosystem like the DeFi sector.
But in the second half of the year, there was a great increase in the number of DeFi projects, fuelled by the digital transformation of businesses especially via the use of blockchain technology and DeFi. This was driven by the necessity of automating business processes to weather the Covid-19 pandemic.
As of 6th Jan 2021, the total value locked in DeFi has achieved an all-time high of US$21 billion, and this growth does not seem like it is slowing down for the year.
Which are the areas where we can expect DeFi to catch on and grow?
Financial Transparency
The biggest financial scandal of 2020 affected investors globally. It brought to light how poor decision making by centralised financial institutions can be hidden behind shell companies and a false paper trail.
However, this is not the first time that poor governance over centralised financial service providers has resulted in major financial crises. In the years between 2010 to 2019, there have been Ponzi schemes that siphoned away billions of investor funds.
Then in the last few weeks of 2020, banks announced that they’ll be slashing their interest rates for 2021 while macroeconomic trend predictions returned low figures.
These announcements have prompted more investors to look at alternative ways of investing that have the potential to provide exponential returns, while giving investors full control and knowledge over where their funds flow.
DeFi is the world’s answer. The concept of DeFi is based on blockchain technology, which was designed to ensure transparency of financial transactions, which are controlled by all the participants within the network versus control by a selective group of individuals.
Although decentralised finance is still in its nascent phase, there are growing indicators that it’s beginning to enter a phase of maturation.
It is already being used for common financial processes such as lending, borrowing, and earning interest, and there is potential for increased adoption of DeFi in emerging markets. We can expect the majority of transaction volume and production development in 2021 to centre around DeFi.
Financial Regulation
One of the key developments for DeFi in 2021 is regulation.
In September 2020, the European Commission announced that regulations on the crypto asset market, including the firms that issue stablecoins, are being formulated. However, the likelihood of any regulation being passed as law may take at least a year as it requires approval by all the European Union governments as well as the European Parliament.
In Canada, Bill C-31 was amended by the Governor General of Canada in 2014 to include virtual currency providers as money service businesses. The law is not yet enforced as it is pending subsidiary regulations, but with the phenomenal growth of DeFi in 2020, the Canadian government may revisit this.
It’s a slightly different story in Singapore, as in the first week of January 2021, its Parliament passed the Payment Services Act stating that any entity facilitating the transmission, exchange or storage of digital payment tokens, otherwise known as cryptocurrencies, will have to be licensed by the Monetary Authority of Singapore.
These regulatory actions are focused on compliance by the providers of the digital currencies in terms of Know Your Customer documentation and Anti-Money Laundering practices. They don’t regulate the decentralised ecosystem of the DeFi financial system and could potentially benefit the industry by instilling confidence in institutional investors.
While regulations are a means of bridging the worlds of traditional and decentralised finance, decentralised platforms should stand united and find ways to interoperate. This will help the DeFi space to reach its maximum potential over these 12-months.
Wider Adoption
Thanks to Bitcoin carrying its strong rally into the new year — BTC value hit US$40,000 on Jan 7 — more people are now more interested in cryptocurrencies.
As BTC may be too pricey for most to buy into at the moment, attention has turned to altcoins.
As of the first week of 2021, fintech experts have been weighing in on the top altcoins to invest in for the year. Some notable mentions include Ether (ETH), Litecoin (LTC), Bitcoin Cash (BCH), Binance Coin (BNB), Ripple (XRP), and Ada.
Of the altcoins mentioned, the most known is Ether (ETH), which is also the second largest cryptocurrency after BTC by market capitalisation. ETH is the currency for apps that run on the Ethereum blockchain.
Several altcoin protocols and applications are built on the Ethereum blockchain. As interest in ETH grows, so will the development of DeFi protocols and applications built on Ethereum.
As Ethereum readies itself to roll out layer 2, we can expect huge improvements to the Ethereum blockchain, and in turn, other blockchains. This will drive greater appeal and confidence in DeFi, which will mean wider adoption and utility as one of the main trends in 2021.
Building Confidence
DeFi also has to look at building investor confidence among institutional and retail investors. At the moment, many are reluctant to adopt the technology due to barriers to entry for blockchain infrastructures as well as platform accessibility.
Another area of concern is the security of personal information, even though these are secured with blockchain technology.
2021 could see a more secure method of authentication with the arrival of Zero Knowledge Proof (ZKP). Blockchain-based ZKPs allow companies with different record-keeping systems to verify information on a record-by-record basis without requiring sensitive information such as passwords.
While much progress has been made in the development of ZKP solutions, their deployment remains much more complex than the use of smart contracts on the blockchain.
Nevertheless, 2021 could see leaps and bounds in the implementation of ZKPs in tandem with the growth of DeFi.
Developing Ecosystems for Mainstream Integration
For DeFi to stake its claim in the realm of traditional finance or to coexist with traditional banking institutions for a more integrated and open financial ecosystem, DeFi protocols and apps will encourage user adoption and retention through a comprehensive ecosystem.
The combination of the above main trends will help drive its growth in 2021 and beyond.
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2020年之前，许多投资者很难发现任何资产的价值出现天文数字的增长或DeFi行业之类的金融生态系统的扩张。
但是在下半年，由于企业的数字化转型，特别是通过使用区块链技术和DeFi的推动，DeFi项目的数量大大增加。这是由于必须使业务流程自动化以抵御Covid-19冠状病毒病所致。
截至2021年1月6日，DeFi锁定的总价值达到了210亿美元的历史新高，而且这一增长似乎并没有放缓。
我们可以预期DeFi会在哪些领域流行并发展？
- 财务透明度
2020年最大的金融丑闻影响了全球投资者。它揭示了中央金融机构的错误决策如何隐藏在空壳公司和错误的账单背后。
但是，这并不是第一次对集中式金融服务提供商的不良治理导致重大的金融危机。在2010年至2019年之间的几年中，出现了庞氏骗局，吸引了数十亿投资者资金。
然后，在2020年的最后几周，银行宣布将大幅下调2021年的利率，同时宏观经济趋势预测返回低位。
这些公告促使更多的投资者考虑有可能提供指数回报的另类投资方式，同时使投资者能够完全控制和了解他们的资金流向。
DeFi是全世界的答案。 DeFi的概念基于区块链技术，旨在确保金融交易的透明度，该交易由网络内的所有参与者控制，而不是由选择性的个人控制。
尽管去中心化金融仍处于起步阶段，但越来越多的指标表明，它已开始进入成熟阶段。
它已被用于诸如借贷，借贷和赚取利息之类的常见财务流程，并且有可能在新兴市场中越来越多地采用DeFi。我们可以预期2021年的大部分交易量和生产发展将围绕DeFi。
- 财务监管
法规是2021年DeFi的主要发展之一。
2020年9月，欧盟委员会宣布正在制定有关加密资产市场的法规，包括发行稳定币的公司。但是，根据法律通过任何法规的可能性至少要花费一年，因为它需要获得所有欧盟政府以及欧洲议会的批准。
在加拿大，加拿大总督于2014年对C-31法案进行了修订，将虚拟货币提供商列为货币服务业务。该法律尚未执行，因为它正在等待附属法规，但随着2020年DeFi的惊人增长，加拿大政府可能会对此进行重新审查。
这与新加坡的情况略有不同，因为在2021年1月的第一周，其议会通过了《支付服务法》，规定任何促进数字支付令牌（也称为加密货币）的传输，交换或存储的实体都必须获得许可由新加坡金融管理局负责。
这些监管措施侧重于数字货币提供商在了解客户文档和反洗钱实践方面的合规性。他们没有监管DeFi金融系统的分散式生态系统，并可能通过灌输对机构投资者的信心而可能使该行业受益。
虽然监管是弥合传统和分散式金融世界的一种手段，但分散式平台应该团结一致，并找到互操作的方式。这将帮助DeFi空间在这12个月内发挥最大潜力。
- 建立信心
DeFi还必须考虑在机构投资者和散户投资者之间建立投资者信心。目前，由于区块链基础设施的入门障碍以及平台可访问性，许多人不愿采用该技术。
另一个值得关注的领域是个人信息的安全性，即使这些信息已通过区块链技术加以保护。
随着零知识证明（ZKP）的到来，2021年可能会看到一种更安全的身份验证方法。基于区块链的ZKP使拥有不同记录保存系统的公司可以逐条记录地验证信息，而无需诸如密码之类的敏感信息。
尽管ZKP解决方案的开发取得了很大进展，但其部署仍然比在区块链上使用智能合约要复杂得多。
尽管如此，随着DeFi的增长，2021年ZKP的实施可能会跨越式发展。
- 开发主流整合生态系统
为了让DeFi拥有自己在传统金融领域的主张或与传统银行机构共存，以建立一个更加集成和开放的金融生态系统，DeFi协议和应用程序将鼓励用户通过一个全面的生态系统进行采用和保留。
以上主要趋势的结合将有助于推动其在2021年及以后的增长。
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