18 “Geeky Predictions” — 2018 Edition

This is the third year in a row that I have enjoyed writing and reviewing my annual “Geeky Predictions” — in case you’re curious (or bored?), you can also check the previous editions of the predictions (2017, 2016) and reviews (2017, 2016) .

I think 2018 will be the year in which every investor will be a “frontier tech investor”. We saw that coming — but today, in most of the companies we meet, there’s some form of machine learning and/or crypto and/or hardware.

I also think that new platforms will emerge in “vertical” use cases — voice for consumers at home and phone; VR for games; wearables for sports and more, which will imply that the stacks for development will fragment.

I guess that the funding environment for such business types in 2018 will be more welcoming, but also more competitive.

For “traditional” SaaS and consumer businesses, it seems like 2018’s financing environment might be tough. If you’re a founder in that space, the bright side is that you will only need to win the FAANG oligarchy, because there will be less competition from well financed startups.

In terms of the next areas of “geekiness development”, more recently, we have seen some renewed interest in software eating healthcare (including pharma and genetics) and the food supply chain (agriculture et al). My guess is that customer behaviour is changing and there are new techniques and access to vast amounts of data that are creating great opportunities.

Without further ado, here we go:

#1 Security and Privacy

Source

• Security incidents will go down in the stack.
  Now it is not only software which is vulnerable, but also the key components of hardware. For the third year in a row, I predict we should expect more frequent and more critical incidents.
• There will be more concerns about “Big Brother”
  Today, technology already allows massive surveillance and we give all of our information to private corporations. GDPR is just an example of more actions that will go against that trend.

#2 Crypto and Blockchain

Source: http://bitcoinfad.com/12706/the-greatest-bitcoin-memes-of-2017/

• Who knows? But I think the markets will not calm down.
  BTC will keep growing. Others will do too, there will be corrections, etc.
• The (ilegal?) “excesses” in ICOs/trading will get corrected.
  Government regulation and self-regulation will make it slightly more mature ;)
• The concept of trust-less networks will get adopted in some B2B opportunities.
  We will try to invest in that ;-)

#3 Developer Tools

• The stack of crypto and machine learning will keep diverging from traditional software.
  Many pieces are still missing from deploying, testing, monitoring, security, etc.

Source: https://www.buzzfeed.com/lukelewis/28-things-only-developers-will-find-funny

• Open source will see a renaissance with the crypto craze.
• More FTEs will move into the cloud.
  A blog post around this topic is in the making, ping me if you’re curious ;-)

#4 Machine Learning, AI

• This year, Machine learning will make a dent in white-collar jobs.
  Blue-collars will come later…
  It’s not going to eat them, but it starts with machine learning making white-collar employees more productive, and so there’s less need of them.
• Compliance and regulation around ML will be a major topic.
  With more and more decisions being taken by “black-box” algorithms, the need to understand them and their biases will increase
• Voice becomes “the war zone” for the FAANG.
  Voice will be everywhere — home, car, office, etc.
  As a result, that will bring great innovation “democratized” to the market

Source: http://money.cnn.com/2016/10/17/investing/google-alphabet-amazon-stock-1000/index.html

#5 Hardware, IoT, VR & AR, Drones

• Expect new use cases for wearables
  Smart watches and IoT in sports are showing the path to other vertical use cases. Sports has been the starting point (garmin, fitbit, peloton, etc.)
  I expect other verticals to be taken with a similar approach.
• Incremental innovation and pilots of new use cases for drones/robotics.
  However, e will see B2B adoption emerging for inspections.
• VR will get real adoption in eSports.
  After that, costs will go down and education about use cases will be higher, so other verticals will start to emerge (2019?).

#6 Next Frontiers

• Healthcare is eaten by software
  Telemedicine, CRISPR, and ML powering research are just examples of major trends.
• Agriculture and the food supply chain is also eaten by software ;-)
  This is one of the fields with a lower impact from software, but it seems to be getting towards a turning point.
• Quantum, Space, Robotics et al are still at the R&D phase.
  I don’t expect major news in 2018 on those topics.

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