Reviewing my 2017 predictions

In January last year the whole team at Point Nine came up with their predictions for the year 2017. Famously, “it is hard to make predictions, especially about the future”. But this should not excuse one from checking how well one did at making the predictions once the results are out. Here are my 2017 predictions and how I did against them:

Prediction 1: We will invest in a B2B marketplace in an industry we have not invested in before.

How did I do?: We made an unannounced investment in a B2B marketplace, but in an industry we were active in before.

Score: 0/1.

Prediction 2: We will invest in a SaaS company that will be all about automating certain processes.

How did I do?: Yes, we did. Check out CallDesk.

Score: 1/1.

Prediction 3: The triangle of Berlin, London and Paris will cement its dominant European position, accounting for the lion’s share of European VC activity. Together they will account for 75%+ of EU’s VC funding volume.

True with regard to funds raised based on this analysis:

Score: 1/1.

Prediction 4: More tech IPOs (say, at least 2x last year’s number).

The number did not double and I could not find a final analysis for 2017 yet, but in the first months of 2017 the number of IPOs increased to 67 from 44 in the year before (while volume more than doubled), as analysed by PwC.

Also, we witnessed two very notable IPOs in Berlin, with Delivery Hero and HelloFresh.

Score: 0.5/1 (there was a significant increase, but not 2x).

Prediction 5: More tech M&A than in 2016, fuelled by corporates and financial buyers.

It definitely looked like this in our portfolio. We sold our stakes in Infogram, Kitchen Stories, Kreditech (although this was not technically M&A) and Savedo.

But I have not seen any good consolidated data on 2017 yet. Thus, I will need to revise this one later, when I come across a good analysis for the whole year.

No score.

Prediction 6: Fewer new European VC fund brands will enter the market than in the last two years.

Yes, at least vs. 2016 according to this analysis by Yannick — 28 first time funds in 2017 vs 35 in 2016.

Score: 1/1.

Prediction 7: Seed and Series A valuations will not increase or might even go down.

It clearly feels like this based on what we have seen in the market. I could not find any data on this, but will give myself 1 point nevertheless. If you know of any data around valuations in 2017 vs 2016, please point me to it.

Score: 1/1.

Prediction 8: The price of Bitcoin will cross $2000, while Bitcoin will continue to account for the vast majority of the overall crypto-currency market cap.

The price moved in the direction that I predicted, but some 7x stronger :-) Also, the Bitcoin dominance is not dominance anymore, as Bitcoin accounts for some 35% of the total crypto market cap today. My Bitcoin-maximalist self did not see the raise of Ethereum and ‘alts’ coming in that magnitude so fast.

Score: 0.5/1.

Prediction 9: Computers will make our lives even more complicated :-)

This is definitely true in some aspects of our lives, while the opposite is true in others as technology makes some things easier, after all. This point was meant as a joke and is not really measurable, so I will not score myself here.

No score.

So, summarising:

Prediction 1: 0

Prediction 2: 1

Prediction 3: 1

Prediction 4: 0.5

Prediction 5: no score

Prediction 6: 1

Prediction 7: 1

Prediction 8: 0.5

Prediction 9: no score

On the 7 predictions that got a score I scored 5 points. Decent, I would say :-) If you have good data on the above that you could point me to, especially if it would lead to different results on my score, please let me know.

Now I can go and put together my predictions for 2018.