More and more smoke in RussiaGate
Trump surrogates have been caught repeatedly misleading the public, or denying reports that would be verified later. The Trump campaign asserted at least 20 times, according to USA Today, that there had been no discussions with the Russians in 2016. Not only has that proven to be false, it has been falsified in spectacular fashion with an almost daily stream of leaks to a number of different publications.
It is possible these denials were a ham-fisted attempt to quell politically damaging rumors. However, the alternative interpretation of a sinister arrangement would seem equally plausible. Between these two vastly different assessments there is the potential that some members of the campaign and administration have been incompetent and others have been compromised by Russia’s efforts to influence American politics. Russia has been subjected to sanctions since it invaded Ukraine in 2014, costing billions of dollars and jeopardizing many billions more.
The Campaign
Last Thursday, NBC News reported intelligence indicating Russian Ambassador Sergey Kislyak held a private meeting with Trump surrogates during the candidate’s first foreign policy speech at the Mayflower Hotel in late April 2016. Jeff Sessions and Jared Kushner attended the event and previously have denied any private meetings with foreign officials. CNN reported that Congressional and FBI investigators were also looking into any meetings that may have occurred alongside the speaking event. Both Sessions and Kushner have omitted foreign contacts on their security clearance paperwork. Sessions misled the Senate committee reviewing his nomination for attorney general and has recused himself from the Russia probe — although he was reportedly involved in the decision to fire FBI Director James Comey.
The speech at the Mayflower Hotel, analyzed by Politico, was part of an apparent rehabilitation effort spearheaded by Paul Manafort to turn Trump into a more acceptable candidate to the establishment. The speech was hosted by a think tank in the ‘realist’ foreign policy tradition, but with ties to Kremlin linked organizations and individuals. The Politico account from last year, authored by James Kirchick, included an unnamed source linking Manafort to Richard Burt’s involvement with the Trump campaign. Burt’s Kremlin connections include work for Alfa Bank and Gazprom.
Over the summer, according to the New York Times, Russian officials were discussing the potential to influence Trump surrogates including Manafort and Michael Flynn. Sources have also told CNN that Russian operatives were attempting to use Carter Page and others, perhaps without their knowledge, to infiltrate the Trump campaign. Time Magazine recently reported that in May of 2016, U.S. intelligence intercepted a Russian military intelligence officer discussing plans to interfere in the upcoming presidential elections. In March’s The New Yorker a source recounted, “Whether he knew it or not, Manafort was around Russian intelligence all the time.”
For more on Paul Manafort’s history of ties to Kremlin friendly individuals, see this previous post.
Reuters reported at least 18 instances of communication between Trump associates and Russian officials or individuals suspected of close ties to the Kremlin between April and November of 2016. According to Reuters’ sources, the discussions centered on improving relations between the U.S. and Russia. One contact, however, was Viktor Medvedchuk, a Ukrainian oligarch close to Putin. Sanctions imposed on Russia since 2014 as a result of the invasion of Ukraine have substantially impacted that country’s financial and petroleum resource industries
The Transition
As reported in early March by The New York Times, Michael Flynn and Jared Kushner met with Kislyak in December, 2016. Near the end of March, The Wall Street Journal reported that Kushner tasked an aide to follow-up with Kislyak. At that meeting, Kislyak and Kushner’s aide laid the groundwork for the president’s son-in-law to meet Sergei Gorkov, a former FSB officer who was now chairman of Russia’s state development bank — a vehicle often used for advancing Russia’s interests — Vnesheconombank (VEB). In early April, The New York Times reported that Kushner failed to include a number of recent foreign contacts on his security clearance paperwork. The meeting with Flynn and Kislyak was not recorded on these forms.
Gorkov has consistently described this meeting with Kushner as business related, going so far last week as to reassert that Kushner was acting as the leader of his family’s businesses. A more detailed account of Gorkov’s meetings in December while in New York City, has just been published by the New York Times. The banker with a background in the FSB called his trip a “road show” and included visits to three major U.S. financial institutions in the hope that sanctions against Russian banks would be lifted with the new administration taking office. How Jared Kushner exactly fits into a major financial institution meet-and-greet is not exactly clear. But, the Times reports that the Russian government has spent $10 billion to support VEB since the Obama era sanctions were enacted. In early April, the New York Times noted that Kushner’s real estate company is struggling to finance a vanity real estate project in that city.
The Trump administration has characterized the meeting as a diplomatic one, however, the White House has been unwilling to confirm the exact date of the meeting. The Washington Post noted the meeting took place while the Obama administration was debating how to retaliate to Russia’s meddling in the elections. The Post also reported that a VEB jet was in the New York City area for two days and one night in mid-December, which may coincide with Gorkov’s meeting with Kushner. That plane then flew on to Japan, where Putin was traveling at the time. The Guardian reported investigators are looking into the Gorkov and Kushner meeting as part of an effort to establish a covert channel of communications with the Kremlin, a topic that was discussed with Kislyak in December as well.
In late May, the Washington Post first reported the covert channel proposal, citing Kislyak’s account fo the meeting to Moscow. Kushner, who is reportedly now a focus of the investigation, had three previously undisclosed contacts with Kislyak according to Reuters. In addition to the December meeting, Kushner also had two calls with Kislyak between April and November.
In late December, 2016, the Obama administration imposed additional sanctions on Russia in response to election meddling. Flynn called Ambassador Kislyak and discussed these sanctions, which the Washington Post reported in February. Previously, administration officials had denied that the topic of sanctions was discussed during the call. According to the Post’s account of the call, Kislyak could have interpreted Flynn’s message as an assurance that sanctions relief would be possible with the Trump administration. The White House has maintained that Flynn lied about his conversations with Kislyak in late December. After Putin declined to retaliate, Trump tweeted “I always knew (Putin) was very smart!”
The Administration
Yahoo! News reported last week that the Trump administration immediately began pressing the State Department to normalize relations with Russia and unwind sanctions. This would have also included the return of seized property reportedly used by Russia to conduct espionage in the United States. The Washington Post reported that the administration was willing to return these properties without anything in exchange from Moscow.
In the early days of the administration, before the revelation of an ongoing counterintelligence investigation, the New York Times reported that a Ukrainian lawmaker approached Felix Sater, a Trump associate. The lawmaker had a peace plan to end the conflict in Ukraine and he wanted to pass it on to the White House. He claimed to have compromising material on Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko and the support of Putin’s aides, according to the New York Times. Sater arranged for a meeting with Trump’s personal attorney, Michael Cohen.
As Business Insider recounts, Cohen went on to repeatedly change his account of events related to this meeting and the peace plan. Cohen told the Times that he delivered the plan to Flynn’s office at the White House. But, Cohen denied any knowledge of the plan to Business Insider and downplayed the significance of the meeting with Sater. When asked about the meeting by CNN, Cohen denied any discussion of a peace plan. The White House denied any plan was delivered to Flynn’s office as well. Sater, however, said that Cohen accepted the plan and stated that Flynn’s support would be essential.
For more on the reports of this peace plan and how it seems to fit into the conflict in Ukraine, see this earlier post.
We are left to wonder at what point Trump and his associates began to discuss sanctions relief for Russia and whether there were other arrangements attached. While the ‘realist’ idea of a “grand bargain” with Russia has been floated in the press to explain some of these actions, many questions still remain.
Why deny discussions categorically? Why try to arrange covert communications using sensitive Russian equipment prior to assuming office? What was Manafort’s real intentions with aligning great-power realists to Trump’s campaign? Was the peace plan, which involved Trump’s personal lawyer and former mobster Felix Sater, meant as cover for sanctions relief but undermined by Flynn’s forced exit?
