On Cruise Control into the Ditch
The Army’s Force Structure Cuts
Angry Staff Officer is a first lieutenant in the Army National Guard. He commissioned as an engineer officer after spending time as an enlisted infantryman. He has done one tour in Afghanistan as part of U.S. and Coalition retrograde operations. With a BA and an MA in history, he currently serves as a full-time Army Historian. The opinions expressed are his alone, and do not reflect those of the U.S. Army, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government.
In case you missed it, the Army is making cuts to 40,000 personnel over the next two years, bringing the number of Soldiers in the Active Component down to 450,000. Pundits like to throw out phrases such as “smallest Army since before World War II,” because pundits really love to make broad statements like that. This time, though, they are on point. If the current cuts to the Active Component go through, the end strength for the Army will be greater than the 269,000 of 1940 but less than any time since then. This means that the reliance on the National Guard and Reserve (together making up the Reserve Component of the Army) will grow exponentially.
To a casual observer, 450,000 seems like a lot of people. But let’s break that down a bit. Say that there is suddenly a global conflict that requires Army intervention. With an Active Component of 450,000 Soldiers, about one in four is in a combat Military Occupation Specialty (MOS), meaning there are about 112,500 “trigger pullers” available for duty. Out of that number, you take into account the current Army deployment policy (Army Force Generation: ARFORGEN for short) of one year deployed, one year rebuilding from deployment, and one year training for deployment, and all of a sudden your number of combat troops drops down to 37,500.
This then would trigger a call-up of National Guard and Reserve Soldiers to augment the ranks. They have a slightly larger ratio of combat troops to non-combat troops (approximately 1 in 7) given that much of the logistics capacity for the Army has been moved to the Reserve Component over the years. They are also bound by the ARFORGEN, so the story of reduced numbers continues. And yes, they are also looking at having their forces cut. If all the cuts go through as expected, the Army total force will be below one million for the first time since 1940.
What does this mean? The long and short of it is that the Army is dangerously close to being unable to meet their requirements as laid out in the President’s National Security Strategy, the Quadrennial Defense Review, and Army Operating Concept 2020. Those are a lot of fancy words which boil down to this: the Army’s mission is to deter aggression around the world, react to a contingency, and maintain its global commitments. The Army has made it very clear that dropping below 450,000 could prevent it from being operationally effective, i.e., winning a war. That’s kind of important. Unfortunately, the global situation is showing no signs of making life easier on the Army.
The Middle East continues to be a flash point where the Army is significantly involved and Afghanistan proves to be the war that just won’t die. Joint operations with NATO countries in Eastern Europe to offset Russian aggression are another sign of global turmoil, as is a strengthening China. The Army continues to be dedicated to its train and assist missions across the world as well as a humanitarian force for natural disaster response (including Ebola). And then there’s Africa, where the President has expressed a greater interest in increasing our economic investment. Historically, wherever the money goes, the military goes with it. The need for Army involvement is not dissipating; in fact, it is growing.
The long-term effects of these cuts means that the Active Component is going to be forced to rely heavily on the Army National Guard and the Army Reserve. The Army mission to Kosovo is being given back to the National Guard and Guard units are already deploying again, which is a sign of things to come. The Reserve Component, which is dealing with its own cuts, will see more overseas deployments so that the Army can meet its global mission. It’s going to be a busy decade for the Reserve Component.
To meet the requirements of dropping down to 450,000, the Army is cutting their main element, the Brigade Combat Team (BCT). Several BCTs are dropping down to a battalion task force, which is essentially a shell of a BCT to be filled out once the Army is able to grow again. One Stryker BCT is going to the National Guard. Which begs the question: why isn’t more of the Army force structure being sent to the National Guard and Reserve?
The Air Force has long been using their Guard and Reserve as a place to harbor manpower during cuts. This year the Air Force was actually able to grow all of their components. The Army could easily save forces by transferring units into the Reserve Components. This would retain personnel with valuable experience as well as keep expensive equipment active rather than sitting in mothball, deteriorating. Sheltering the Army’s force structure would be more expensive in the short run than getting rid of it entirely, but would pay dividends in the long run.
That question as to why this is not taking place across the board has no simple answer. But it is telling that the announcement to cut the Active Component down to 450,000 was made a full seven months before the National Commission on the Future of the U.S. Army is due to make its recommendations to Congress in February of 2016. It feels on the surface like a power play by the Army to force Congress to make some tough decisions regarding the future of Sequestration and the role of the Army in future strategic planning. If the Sequestration cuts continue, the Army could drop to 420,000.
One thing is very clear. Unless the Active Component can work with the Reserve Component, it is going to be hard-pressed to accomplish its mission. Only by working together can all the parts of the Army meet this crisis with any chance of success. The Army must realize that until Sequestration is over, its future lies in the National Guard and Reserve.
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