The fall of Kunduz
The first city to fall to the Taliban (a dubious term for what is a complex milieu of insurgents) in 14 years is a major setback for the current mission in Afghanistan. Not only is Kunduz outside of traditional insurgent territories but it is also an important city along commercial routes in the northern part of the country.
Keeping up the weekly theme of stinging, concise tweets on US foreign policy, Patrick Skinner of the Soufan Group pointed this out earlier today:
The fall of Kunduz is a failure in all of those regards. But, it is also another intelligence failure in a war full of such failures — which the tweet certainly implies . The early battle damage assessment in the press clearly indicates the scope of the failure.
“This is the second time this year that the Taliban have sought to capture Kunduz. When the Taliban closed in on the provincial capital in April, they caught Afghan forces off guard but they retreated before they could enter the city. Kunduz province has been volatile since.” The Wall Street Journal.
“Local sources said fighting could be heard inside the city from 3am. The Taliban attacked from … Chardara to the west, Aliabad to the south-west, Khanabad to the east and Imam Saheb to the north… since spring, scores of foreign fighters have boosted the Taliban’s offensive in the north. Many pushed into Afghanistan from Pakistan when the military there launched a campaign to rid North Waziristan of militants. Others belong to the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU), parts of which recently pledged allegiance to Islamic State.” The Guardian.
“Army Col. Brian Tribus, a military spokesman, said that the American-organized coalition has not conducted any recent airstrikes in Kunduz but that it was providing intelligence and surveillance support to the Afghan army. Coalition forces ‘train, advise and assist’ the Afghan military, but Tribus declined to discuss specifics of the mission, citing concerns about operational security.” The Washington Post.
Insurgents have been preparing for an attack in Kunduz since April, and anyone even passively following the news out of Afghanistan knows that the city has been the seen of attacks throughout the summer. The International Crisis Group even highlighted this in their July advisory, referencing some of the same districts seized yesterday.
Fourteen years into counterinsurgency in the Greater Middle East should have a much more robust understanding of how guerrillas prepare the battlefield and mass forces. Missing this attack calls a great deal into question, and there needs to be answers coming from our politicians and generals.
Chris Zeitz is a former member of the U.S. Army who served in military intelligence. He deployed for one year to Kunar, Afghanistan, from Spring 2010 to Spring 2011. While in the Army, he attended the Defense Language Institute in Monterey and studied Arabic. He also has a Master’s degree in Diplomacy from Norwich University. He is also a member of the Military Writers Guild. The opinions expressed are his alone, and do not reflect those of the U.S. Army, the Department of Defense, or the U.S. Government.
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