The Nu-Korean War
Its hard to call the current stalemate in Korea anything but a clusterf@$%, but that’s what it is. The result of the 1953 Armistice has lead to this point: an isolated hermit state with an entrenched ideology, a nation-wide sense of paranoia- armed with nuclear weapons.
The Nu-Korean War, as I want to call it instead of the Second Korean War, whenever it happens is a continuation of some 60 plus years of hostilities. It has not always been peaceful coexistence between the UN and DPRK, several hot flashes and scares of a full blown war have cropped up occasionally. One of the more infamous incidents occurred on August 18, 1976 when North Korean soldiers killed United States Army soldiers in an incident that involved the chopping down of a tree.
That’s how petty this conflict was then… and how it is now.
The current sharing of kinetic strikes is due to South Korea restarting propaganda speakers along the DMZ and blasting the Korean People’s Army troops. The KPA loosed a single round an the ROKA responded. Now the third generation despot in Pyongyang is stamping his feet calling for war and making incredulous threats. But make no mistake, North Korea is capable of following through on those threats but then what?
Do they really think they can win the Nu-Korean War? Do they think the world will sue for peace because they take Seoul? Does the South even want the North anymore? Vice versa?
Having been in Korea for year doesn’t make me an expert but I listened to the Koreans there. Several who were in the ROK Army security services from before the democratization so… they are experts. Almost to a man, these elderly Korean Army veterans said flat out that they dread the time the next war starts because they know they will be victorious. They may die, but they are certain the South will win. I have every confidence that will be the case (no nu-Red Dawn nor Homefront here) and that the DPRK will be be a memory within an unspecified time frame. Unlike Washington, I don’t put time limits on wars…look at Korea.
But they dread the war because after its over it means that Seoul will be responsible for the failures of the Kim family and the practice of juche. Seoul will need to repair the damage the DPRK inflicted upon itself, the land, the people, and the South. Provided no Chinese involvement (which there might not bet, lots of debate on that) the DPRK regime is gone in the end. But the fact that Seoul wants nothing to do with the North because of shear cost of the humanitarian cost it would take to contain the chaos post-war Pyongyang would be like. Many point to the reunification of Germany post-Warsaw Pact breakup and fall of the Soviet Union as an example of why they do not want to reunify.
And they are fearful of it. The want to be reunited, like brothers torn apart, but know that too much time has passed. Too much bad blood exists between the two.
So there is no good answer to Korea. It would take unprecedented humanitarian relief effort to forestall catastrophe- North Korea is harsh terrain. If there is a war, I have seen Korean civilian estimates into the millions, many of those could come from the hands of the KPA’s massive artillery capability. Several hundred if not thousands would be trapped north of the rivers and behind tank traps. As a Soldier, one who has been to these traps… I have no doubt they work.
So what’s the point again? Why are American troops there? Simple. Defend the South from the North and hold fast to our commitment to safeguard our allies. It may seem abstract today as it was in 1951 but its just as important. South Korea, like Western Europe, is the epitome of success of post-World War II (and subsequently Korean War) containment philosophy. It was a long road but both Europe and South Korea are modern, thriving democracies with advanced economies. So let’s pray the balloon does not go up but if it does:
