Vectors of Influence: Michael Flynn
The U.S. Intelligence Community assessed that Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered a multifaceted influence campaign directed against the 2016 Presidential Elections. Russian intelligence assets across a broad spectrum, from hackers to human intelligence sources, were involved. Perhaps as many as seven European countries noticed interactions between Trump’s inner circle and suspected Russian agents, according to The Guardian. This incidental collection gradually developed into a more alarming pattern and by late summer the CIA pushed for an interagency investigation.
Perhaps as many as seven European countries noticed interactions between Trump’s inner circle and suspected Russian agents
According to The Guardian and The Washington Post, Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act warrants were approved to monitor Trump’s odd advisor Carter Page and two banks suspected of working to influence the election. The same Guardian story, published April 13th, quoted one source saying there is evidence of “collusion” between the Trump campaign and Russian agents relating to hacked Democratic National Committee emails. Other surrogates of the campaign and administration of Donald Trump are known to be under investigation, including Paul Manafort and Michael Flynn.
Sources have told CNN that Russian operatives were attempting to instrumentalize Carter Page and others to infiltrate the Trump campaign. It is possible that these would be instruments were not aware that their contacts were members of Russian intelligence. CNN’s sources, reported on April 21st, also confirm that U.S. and European intelligence agencies were noticing known Russian operatives in contact with the campaign and its surrogates. According to this more recent CNN report, human intelligence sources as well as electronic and financial records point to “possible collusion” between the campaign and Russian operatives but that there is not enough evidence to charge anyone with a crime at this time. When news of the investigation leaked in the press, individuals under surveillance changed their behavior to more effectively cover their tracks, according to CNN. An earlier report from CNN, on March 22nd, also recounted evidence of coordination between Trump associates and Russia. This report included a reference to “human intelligence, travel, business and phone records and accounts of in-person meetings.” As far as I know, only Page has been identified as one of these associates, but stories continue to reference multiple vectors of influence.
We know by his own account that Roger Stone was in contact with the online platforms distributing hacked DNC emails. Another story from The Guardian, in late March, reported that U.S. and U.K. officials were concerned about Michael Flynn’s ties to Russia. In what the article describes as “erratic conduct,” Flynn maintained a channel with a Russian-British graduate student beginning in early 2014. The graduate student, Svetlana Lokhova, boasted of remarkable access to GRU archives. A Russian historian quoted in that article described this level of access as “basically impossible.” Flynn remained in contact with Lokhova via email according to The Guardian. Sources reported that the CIA and FBI were discussing many such “maverick” relationships that Flynn had developed and failed to report during periodic security clearance updates.
Flynn’s erratic conduct dates back to his time in uniform. The Washington Post reported that Flynn disclosed highly classified intelligence about U.S. monitoring of the Haqqani network to Pakistan. He received only a verbal reprimand for this disclosure. This irresponsible and unethical behavior has shown no signs of stopping. Flynn was collected in conversations with Russia’s ambassador to the United States, Sergey Kislyak, late in 2016. He denied discussing sanctions but subsequently that was proven to be false and he was forced to resign. As the Washington Post reported in early February, Flynn’s contacts with Kislyak may have broken the law. On April 25th, the ranking members of the House Oversight Committee all but accused Flynn of breaking the law repeatedly with required paperwork. The congressmen reviewed Flynn’s SF-86 from January 2016, according to The New York Times. Flynn has also failed to properly disclose sources of foreign income on numerous forms over the years. TIME reported in early April that Flynn failed to report $150,000 in foreign income, including speaking fees paid from Russian companies as well as one from a Turkish community leader in New York.
As subsequently reported by The New York Times, Michael Flynn and Jared Kushner met with Kislyak in December, 2016. Near the end of March, The Wall Street Journal reported that Kushner tasked an aide to follow-up with Kislyak. At that meeting, Kislyak and Kushner’s aide laid the groundwork for the president’s son-in-law to meet Sergei Gorkov, the former FSB officer who was now chairman of VEB. In March of 2016, the former deputy of VEB’s New York office admitted to acting as a foreign agent without notifying the US government and was sentenced to 30 months in prison. His plea deal avoided trial on additional charges of espionage. The VEB is widely viewed as a tool of the Kremlin, rewarding oligarchs loyal to Putin and facilitating Russian interests around the world. In early April, The New York Times reported that Kushner failed to include a number of recent foreign contacts on his security clearance paperwork. The meeting with Flynn and Kislyak was not recorded on these forms.
During the campaign, when Flynn was actively receiving intelligence briefings, he was also under contract to lobby for foreign clients. Congressman Elijah Cummings raised concerns about this dual role to the Trump transition team in November, according to CNN. As the months progressed, more disturbing details about this lobbying effort emerged. As the Wall Street Journal reported on March 24th, one of Flynn’s meetings included discussing the abduction of an opponent of President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan. Turkish officials attended the meeting. As The New Yorker points out, Flynn’s support for Erdoğan marks a significant departure from the opinions he expressed over the summer when he warned of the Turkish president’s Islamist political party. According to this New Yorker report, Flynn also recommended to Susan Rice that the Obama administration pause its plan to increase support to a Kurdish militant group hostile to Turkey but also participating in the war against Assad in Syria. After taking office, Trump’s administration nixed the plan. Flynn initially did not report his firm’s lobbying work under the Foreign Agents Registration Act.
On April 25th, Politico reported more details about Flynn’s lobbying efforts on behalf of Turkey. Flynn’s client, Ekim Alptekin, has been active in Turkish lobbying in the United States, an effort supported by Dmitri Zaikin, who would meet most people’s definitions of a Putin-linked oligarch. Both men have strong financial ties to the Kremlin. Flynn said that he obtained assurances from Alptekin about the origins of the money that went to pay for his firm’s services. However, Flynn’s account of this contract has evolved over time — from a Dutch L.L.C. in the Fall to the retroactive filing of FARA status after he left the White House. Alptekin denied knowing Zaikin when asked by Politico, but both men were part of the same Turkish business association. Zaikin, who was born in the former Soviet Union, helped to found this organization. Politico cited several sources that claim Alptekin and Zaikin have worked together with this group to advance Turkish interests. Zaikin’s career in oil and minerals advanced alongside Putin’s consolidation of these industries in Russia. He has benefited from incredibly generous stock sales and worked with a ex-KGB oligarch, according to Politico. Alptekin was involved in arranging the meeting in which Flynn discussed kidnapping Erdoğan’s foe.
It would be reasonable to ask on whose behalf Flynn was acting during the campaign, transition, and his brief stint as National Security Advisor. There certainly is reason to be concerned given Flynn’s inability to appropriately document the sources of income he has received and to comply with other reporting laws which are in place to keep agents acting on behalf of foreign powers from influencing U.S. policy.
It would be reasonable to ask on whose behalf Flynn was acting during the campaign, transition, and his brief stint as National Security Advisor
Flynn’s conduct could be explained with several different interpretations. He has a long track record of poor judgment and operating outside of the rules normally imposed on individuals in his position. This and a mix of greed and resentment with the previous administration could have led him to repeatedly break the law in the interests of his own wealth and status. Or, he could have been knowingly or unwittingly coopted by other governments to serve their interests to the detriment of the United States.
Elijah Cummings notified the Trump transition team in November that Flynn’s conduct was raising concerns. The administration did not decide to remove Flynn until the Washington Post published an account of Flynn’s contacts with Kislyak that contradicted what the White House said about these exchanges, that U.S. policy was not discussed. After the House Intelligence Committee began to conduct public hearings, the White House and Committee Chairman Devin Nunes arranged for a sideshow story that derailed the investigation around the time Sally Yates was scheduled to testify — another official who had warned the administration about Flynn. Nunes is now recused and facing an ethics inquiry. This week, the White House refused all requests for documents from the House Oversight Committee relating to Flynn. That Flynn’s protégé, Ezra Cohen-Watnick, arranged for Nunes’ intelligence briefing is another unsettling aspect to the story. There are many possible explanations for this behavior. Perhaps the most generous is an instinctual revulsion to bad press. Perhaps, however, there are more sinister motivations.
