Modeling the Energy Transition: Takeaways from Our Recent Webinar
Rational policymaking requires that decisions be based on solid data and a robust understanding of how policies will likely affect the real world. This requirement is especially true in the energy space, where even slight tweaks in incentives (not to mention big policy changes) can have massive effects on real-time markets, large infrastructure projects, and human wellbeing.
On February 7th, Policy Integrity hosted a webinar that brought together researchers and policy experts for a discussion about the complex task of modeling the energy system in a time of major transition. The system we use to generate and distribute electric power is rapidly changing, and energy policymakers have to make difficult decisions about how to responsibly manage this system without knowing exactly what it will look like a few years down the road. Modeling is crucial because it helps policymakers understand how the future system may take shape under different policy scenarios. That said, models can play this role only if they are constructed with high-quality data, properly validated, and designed to account for a wide range of relevant factors (including impacts on human health and wellbeing).
Together with his team at the Environmental Defense Fund, Dr. Oleg Lugovoy is comparing several open-source energy models to identify conditions in which their predictions differ and understand why. The results of this comparison will be useful for policymakers for multiple reasons. It is possible that some models will be better than others at accurately describing certain changes in the energy system over time. Knowing which models perform better at which tasks will allow policymakers to select the best tools for analyzing their decisions. There may also be areas in which many models agree, and this agreement could provide a consensus understanding of how certain aspects of the energy system are likely to change. Interestingly, interim results from the comparison show significant consensus among open-source models on the costs associated with decarbonization (see above).
Dr. Zane Selvans of Catalyst Cooperative presented on preparing open data for energy modeling, focusing on the importance of using open systems in public policy and the challenges of data preparation in academic and NGO contexts. He pointed out that the incentives of these institutions do not usually reward the long-term, tedious work of data curation and that these tasks end up being carried out by early-career policy researchers with little data-related training. His team works to fill this gap and address the asymmetry of information in energy policymaking by making public data more accessible and useful for analysis through their Public Data Liberation Project. If successful, this project could become, in Dr. Selvans’ words, “an irresistible resource that benefits everybody.”
Dr. Wei Peng of Princeton University discussed the integration of human-centered considerations into the modeling of decarbonization pathways, aiming to make models more reflective of real-world complexities and impacts on society. She began by outlining the need for models to not only focus on technological solutions but also to incorporate human actions, impacts, and political-economy concerns. On the latter point, she discussed the interaction between policy actions and the energy system, emphasizing that modelers should be realistic about the policy instruments that are available to help meet temperature and emissions targets. Dr. Peng also discussed the importance of considering exposure disparities and health impacts across different population segments within models. Through her discussion, Dr. Peng conveyed the critical need for a human-centered approach to decarbonization modeling that accounts for the complex interplay between technological, societal, and policy factors. This approach aims to create more accurate, realistic, and equitable models that better inform policymaking and help navigate the challenges of transitioning to a decarbonized energy system.
The final speaker of the event was Jignasa Gadani, Director of the Office of Energy Policy and Innovation at the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC). In her remarks, she discussed the role modeling plays in informing the Commission’s decisionmaking process, the importance of making research and studies part of the public record, and how this contributes to well-informed regulatory decisions. She underscored the importance of ongoing engagement with academic research, stakeholder input, and open data when crafting policy reforms aligned with the energy transition. She also discussed specific regulatory initiatives, such as market design reforms, that can help integrate renewable energy sources and maintain system reliability.
Common themes emerged across several speakers’ remarks. Multiple panelists stressed the importance of open data and model accessibility. Dr. Selvans highlighted efforts to liberate public data and create open-source modeling tools, and Dr. Lugovoy highlighted the need to empower all interested stakeholders to use open source, ready-to-use models. These efforts are aimed at democratizing energy research, and enabling a wider range of stakeholders to contribute to and benefit from energy transition research.
The panelists also agreed on the necessity for research to be policy-relevant and for researchers to engage actively with policymakers. Jignasa Gadani’s presentation on FERC’s initiatives and several comments during the Q&A session underscored the value of making research findings accessible and understandable to policymakers. This often involves presenting research in a manner that aligns with regulatory frameworks and addresses practical policy challenges.
Finally, there was a common understanding, articulated by Dr. Peng, that efforts to model decarbonization pathways should consider health inequities and the social dimensions of energy policies. This approach aligns with broader discussions on energy justice and the need to ensure that the benefits and burdens of the energy transition are distributed equitably.
Overall, the speakers highlighted the difficulty of modeling the highly complex energy transition. At the same time, however, they underscored the indispensable role that modeling plays in helping policymakers arrive at the best decisions for the public.
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This webinar was part of a new series highlighting environmental and energy research projects funded by the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation. Check our events page for future webinars in the series!
