Getting to Net-Zero: A policy agenda for the new government
By Prof. Jim Watson, UCL Institute for Sustainable Resources
13th December 2019
Climate change is higher on the agenda than ever this year. The UK government has raised the level of ambition, legislating for a net zero target for all greenhouse gas emissions by 2050. Whilst it may be possible to achieve this goal before 2050, the political debate about the target year risks distracting attention from a crucial question: what actions should the government take in the next few years to significantly reduce emissions?
Since 2016, the UK Energy Research Centre (UKERC) has produced an annual review of government policies for reducing emissions and meeting other energy policy goals. UKERC is the flagship centre of the UKRI energy programme, and recently moved its headquarters to the Bartlett School of Energy, Environment and Resources at UCL. This year’s Review of Energy Policy focuses on seven themes that will form the backbone of UKERC’s research programme for the next five years.
The Review sets out some of the challenges Boris Johnson’s new government will face and makes ten recommendations about policy priorities.
First, the transition to net zero will affect the whole economy. Investment and policy decisions by all government departments and agencies need to be compatible with this transition. Following a recommendation from the Committee on Climate Change, the Treasury is carrying out a review of the costs of meeting net zero , how policies will be paid for — and crucially, how to mitigate the impacts on those least able to pay. As part of this review, it will also be important to investigate the guidance used by government officials to assess policies and investments. This guidance should be revised so that it includes a clear test of net-zero compatibility.
Second, the government should build on success. Current policies to support renewable electricity generation have been very successful in accelerating deployment and bringing down costs. This should continue, with more ambition and the inclusion of all technologies including onshore wind power. Action is also needed to respond to the rapid changes that are already re-shaping the electricity system. This will ensure that electricity market rules and regulations are fit for a fully decarbonised power sector.
Third, decisions by the energy regulator, Ofgem, should also be compatible with net zero. Ofgem needs to ensure that there is sufficient, timely investment in local electricity networks to facilitate heat and transport decarbonisation — and to ensure more active use of existing networks. Gas networks face a different challenge. Regulatory decisions will be needed to manage their transformation to use new fuels (e.g. hydrogen) or their decline as heating with natural gas is phased out.
Fourth, there is a widespread expectation that local energy systems will play a significant role in achieving net zero, particularly in the integration of electricity, heat and transport. A large number of local energy demonstration projects have been supported, but implementation is often challenging. If the potential of local energy is to be realised, more resources and greater powers will be required for Local Authorities and devolved governments.
Fifth, a clear plan is required for upgrading the UK housing stock. There have been successful policies for energy efficiency in homes and other buildings in the past, but progress has stalled in the last few years. A new heat and energy efficiency White Paper is required that includes policies for widespread deployment of low carbon heat and for prioritising low income households. It is also important to fund large-scale demonstration of hydrogen heating systems so that decision-makers have better evidence on their feasibility.
Sixth, whilst the decarbonisation of industry is receiving more attention, policy initiatives are not joined up. The significant government funding for specific projects and industrial clusters that has been announced in the past year is very welcome. However, funding for clusters only focuses on a minority of industrial emissions. This funding should be complemented by policies that create markets for low carbon products — and investment in infrastructure and incentives for carbon capture and storage.
Seventh, emissions from road transport are not falling. UKERC’s analysis shows that achieving net zero requires the phase out of fossil-fuelled vehicles to be brought forward to 2030. This should include the phase out of plug-in hybrid cars. Immediate action is also required to counter the rapid increase in sales of larger cars (including SUVs). Over the past four years, sales of SUVs have been 37 times higher than sales of battery electric vehicles.
Eighth, plans to meet net zero should maximise environmental co-benefits. This is particularly important for land use, where there is potential competition between land for food production, greenhouse gas removal (e.g. through afforestation or land management) and energy crops. Potential negative impacts on ecosystems, including implications for biodiversity, should be assessed and mitigated.
Ninth, the continuing uncertainty about the UK’s changing relationship with the European Union has already affected decarbonisation plans. The energy White Paper that was due to be published in summer 2019 has been delayed, and investment in new electricity connections with neighbouring countries are proceeding more slowly than planned. Whatever the outcome, close co-operation with the EU is likely to make it easier to achieve net zero.
Our tenth recommendation is to maintain a focus on energy security and resilience. As the economy decarbonises, the risks to energy security will change. Although it was not caused by decarbonisation, the electricity system blackout on 9th August 2019 revealed some weaknesses in the institutional arrangements that are designed to keep the lights on. In particular, responsibilities for ensuring system resilience — preventing, containing and recovering from interruptions to supply arising from disturbances — need to be clarified and applied in a more rigorous way.
