What Can a Biden Presidency Actually Do
It depends.
With the Trump administration transitioning out of the White House, our nation is likely to experience some major shifts.
President-elect Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris have proposed an ambitious agenda and both have a lot of work ahead to heal the country.
So what should we expect?
The Biden-Harris agenda has committed to extensive government spending to address both COVID-19 and economic recovery.
Their signature “Built back better” pandemic recovery promises nationwide testing, a 100,000-person Public Health Jobs Corps, hazard pay for essential workers, massive vaccine stockpiles, and more.
While the economic agenda is oriented around rebuilding (green) manufacturing in the US, building on the safety net expansions, and drastically expanding access to health care services.
Realistically, getting much of the promised agenda through a profoundly partisan Congress will be difficult anyway the Georgia Senate runoff races turn out.
With a current 50–48 Republican-Democrat split in the Senate, the 2 seats up for grabs — in what was, up until this year, a traditionally solid Republican state—become monumental.
A Democratic victory means a majority in the Senate, with a Vice Presidental tie-breaker, and all the possibilities it brings. However, even one Republican victory charts an entirely different course.
What party wins the two open Senate seats in Georgia could shape the next 4 years.
Democrats Take Control of Senate
Let's say on January 5th both Georgia seats go to Democrats, an increasingly likely outcome.
There is still some uncertainty around what the Democratic party's focus would be — voting reform, healthcare, police reform, climate change, and student loan forgiveness are all major policy issues they are expected to deliver on when taking power.
Even if Democrats manage a thin majority in the Senate, securing full control of the federal government, a Mitch McConnell minority remains a towering obstacle of minority rule. Not to mention the 6–3 conservative-leaning Supreme Court.
In this scenario, the minority leader — coming off an especially bitter party loss of the Presidency and Senate — can simply dust off the playbook of hindrance he wielded so effectively for much of the Obama era.
It was McConnell’s effective strategy that forced the Obama-Biden administration to compromise on financial reform, abandon a public option for health care, and shrink a major stimulus package — all key goals at the time.
The essential weapon in McConnell’s opposition was the filibuster. Since becoming Minority leader in 2007, his Republican party has taken a record-setting pace to halt Senate activity using this tactic — among others.
This obstruction has the potential to cause chaos in Biden’s attempts to legislate and free up funding for the lofty goals of the administration.
Democrats may consider eliminating the filibuster, a risky move of its own, before starting on any other major legislation. But without removing the Republican minority’s biggest Senate weapon, any lasting legislation seems doomed on arrival.
Despite Biden’s across aisle relationships, his scheduled flurry of executive orders indicates an administration tensing for an anticipated red wall of opposition.
And while executive action can have some surprising potency, it can only go so far without any substantial legislation to ensure changes remain after he leaves office.
In a Democrat-controlled federal government, political capital will need to be spent wisely with so many suggested reforms. Each progressive accomplishment will be a tough battle, and the country may not have the stamina to withstand many.
Republicans Retain the Senate Majority
Another possible scenario is that the Senate remains a Republican majority with just one win in Georgia.
“If Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) stays as majority leader, he would be trying to manage a conference torn between two factions with different interests, but neither necessarily eager to help Biden”
Caught between 2022 swing state reelections and 2024 Republican Presidential hopefuls, McConnell may have a tougher time keeping control over the lofty ambitions of his party members.
Swing voting Republicans could play a crucial role in passing critical legislation, as they via for positive accomplishments to add to their records.
A more effective Senate seems likely considering vast public support in favor of government action around coronavirus and institutional reforms.
Republicans will need to be careful not to appear to be the main obstacle in pandemic relief from a nation likely to reeling from a COVID winter.
In any case, no Republican would be eager to deliver Democrats a win, and any legislation passed is almost guaranteed to be heavily watered-down after long, bitter negotiations.
“A Republican-held Senate — or even one with a narrow Democratic majority — probably will affect Biden’s Cabinet picks given the Senate’s power to confirm nominees.”
However, there are still options for President Biden, despite a likely hostile Senate.
The administration would have to rely heavily on the soft skills of the executive office to enact a progressive agenda. Using influence, messaging, and the Executive Order to establish changes.
Absent any formal laws, these Executive Orders can create an ethical environment where executive staffers are actively encouraged to adhere to conventional norms and traditions.
And by employing executive orders, Biden can institute new ethics guidelines at the White House.
On Climate Change issues, the administration can take advantage of foreign relations, and Biden’s long history of foreign engagements.
“Biden has long pledged to rejoin the Paris climate accords by executive order, but he has also said that he would attempt to convince other nations to adopt higher standards in an attempt to curb the impacts of climate change.”
A Biden-Harris administration already plans to immediately reverse Trump’s rollback of 100 public health and environmental rules created by the Obama administration.
A switch-up in Presidential administrations provides an opportunity to shift the possible and craft the narrative we tell about our country.
There is no telling how the Senate race will turn out. No telling what will happen between now and swearing-in, or how the outside factors will change the political landscape.
So before we leap to the next crisis, let’s take a moment to collect ourselves and celebrate the moment.
