The UK’s election is more important than you think

Purely on its own terms Boris Johnson has won a resounding electoral victory. An 80 seat majority is the biggest the Conservatives have won since 1987. It is the worst Labour result since 1935. The Liberal Democrats leader, Jo Swinson lost her seat. Both opposition party leaders are standing down as a consequence.

But the ramifications of the vote mean it is possibly the most significant vote in decades. It represents the biggest shift in politics perhaps since the late 1970s and the election of Mrs Thatcher. It could be argued that in some way the clock is being turned back towards more Keynesian style economics. Constitutionally it is far more profound — and could ultimately lead to the break-up of the United Kingdom.

Clearly, the most obvious outcome is Britain will leave the EU by the end of January. That brings political clarity — three years after a narrowly contested referendum and Mrs May’s botched 2017 election campaign which produced a hung parliament and the indecision that went with it.

The size of the majority means that Johnson will have flexibility to manoeuvre in his negotiations with the EU. He may agree to a closer trading arrangement and other ties with Brussels than hardcore Brexiteers within his party might wish for. The difficulty is his deadline — effectively self-imposed — to strike a deal by the end of 2020. With a larger majority it would be more to his advantage to push past the deadline and not have the pressure of ticking clock. The EU will still prove to be a tough negotiating partner and is unlikely to give up on its core principles on regulation.

The small state is on the wane — both Labour and the Tories committed themselves to substantial public spending increases (Labour’s nationalisation plans as well as Corbyn’s leadership were clearly their largest Achilles heel). Public borrowing increases and along with spending, will higher taxes follow suit?

Linked to this is Johnson’s “one nation” promise to the working-class communities across the Midlands and North of England, the so-called Red Wall. This is the first time since the 1950s that large numbers of blue-collar areas have voted Conservative. He will have to show he is on their side if he is to keep them for another election.

While this represents an enormous shift within our political map the greater challenge is actually to the make-up of the country itself. Like a centrifugal force, Brexit, and now this election, are creating forces that may tear the United Kingdom apart.

While in England, the Conservatives won the vast majority of seats, they have effectively imposed a new settlement on both Scotland and Northern Ireland that electorates there resoundingly rejected. In Scotland, not only did a majority of people vote against Brexit during the referendum, the Scottish National Party has now won 48 out of the 59 seats available to them in the UK parliament. In Northern Ireland, nationalist MPs who favour a United Ireland outnumber unionists. The SNP’s leader Nicola Sturgeon is pushing for another referendum on independence. Johnson will resist, but Scottish anger with the government in Westminster can only grow.

Speaking on the BBC earlier today, Peter Hennesy, Britain’s best known constitutional historian said, “This could be the last election in which Scotland returns MPs to Westminster. Between now and 2024 it is possible. I don’t think it is overwhelmingly likely, but certainly in the course of the 2020s, I think it is a very distinct possibility.“

If that is the case, Britain’s electorate has inadvertently voted for the break-up of the United Kingdom.