Why Iowa Matters and How to Win It
Iowa’s first-in-the-nation status stems form the turmoil of the 1968 elections when the Democratic Party selected Hubert Humphrey to run against Richard Nixon. The Democratic Convention in Chicago was famously overwhelmed by clashes between police and protestors. The Vietnam war was the background to the protests and the selection of Humphrey, who supported Johnson’s stance on the war, was viewed as a stitch up. Old boys in smoke filled rooms had to be replaced by a fairer process.
Iowa got its first place almost by default. The state already had a long tradition of caucuses to select local candidates, but the time it took to get through all the elections at county and state level in time for Democratic Convention meant they needed to start months ahead of most states. So in January 1972 Iowa held its caucuses before anyone else held a primary and it’s been the same ever since.
Today that first-place position is controversial — the state is far more white and rural than most US states — yet it has a significant impact on the primaries that follow. Some candidates fall by the wayside and the lesser-known may come to prominence (Jimmy Carter was one such example).
Bradley Knott, a Democratic strategist who’s work in the state dates back to the 1980s, explains in an interview with Political Tours why he thinks Iowa should keep that role. Essentially he says it winnows out the field and gives less wealthy candidates a better chance (it’s notable that Michael Bloomberg is skipping Iowa altogether).
There are some surprising things here; Knott points out that organised labour or unions are still crucial for any Democratic candidate to win the state — just when you thought Trump was winning over the blue-collar vote and unions might be less important.
He also says Trump has a fight on his hands at election time — with rural conservatives also turning away from him. Nothing to do with impeachment. It’s far less dramatic… it is all about ethanol! Maize or corn, possibly the state’s biggest crop, is a crucial ingredient.
Lastly he says keep an eye out for Amy Klobuchar, who he says appeals to mid-western voters in a way that could be crucial at election time.
Bradley Knott will be leading our tour of the Iowa Caucuses in January. We still have places available.
See here for the details of the tour https://www.politicaltours.com/tours/usa-primaries/
The interview is with Political Tours Director, Nicholas Wood. First off Nicholas asks why should Iowa have that exulted first-primary status?
Why Should Iowa come First?
Bradley Knott
So sometimes you hear people say Iowa is not diverse enough to represent the national party and (it’s) the same in New Hampshire. Okay. Fair enough, in terms of the diversity, but here’s what you do get with Iowa.
Number one- it does not choose the nominee. Iowa winnows the number of nominees. Coming out of Iowa you may have four or five candidates, not 14 or 15.
Number two is Iowa is a manufacturing state. It is an agricultural state. It has urban-rural splits. Those are reflected in significant populations within the Democratic Party and within the country.
But also, and probably more importantly, you can campaign in Iowa as an underdog candidate. On a shoestring budget can come to Iowa and get traction.
The Iowa electorate has been conditioned to understand their role is to listen to these candidates and make a decision. Here we are, candidates have been here for at least 18 months. We have another 3 months to go and 70% of people say they have not made up their mind yet. So they understand they need to attend these events, listen to the candidates, meet them and give us a fair and honest assessment.
And just to reiterate that point again, you can do it affordably here. I mean, you couldn’t go to Texas and start a campaign on a shoestring budget or California or Illinois or Massachusetts, you wouldn’t have the resources to do that. But here you can get a start.
How to Win Iowa
Nicholas Wood
So how do you go about winning Iowa?
BK
Iowa has 99 counties with probably 12 or 15 that cities of over 50,000 people.
So what happens is you develop an urban or a rural strategy:
The urban strategy relies on obviously the big cities. Des Moines, Cedar Rapids, Iowa City, Waterloo, Davenport, Sioux City, and you work with them. Those are the concentrations of organised union labor and also a lot of organised special interest groups. You go there, you try to build your base as much as possible, winning their endorsements from the teachers or the AFL-CIO, AFSCME, the government workers. Those are the three biggest trade unions or unions in the state.
When you try the rural strategy there, you stay out of the big cities, but you have a presence in the smaller communities cause, with towns starting from populations of 30,000 or less.
There is a clear sort of psychological divide between the cities and the rural areas because rural areas feel the cities have too much power. Cities feel the rural is over-represented.
NW
So you’re saying you have to choose one or the other?
BK
You don’t have to, but that’s typically the way people think about it.
NW
I think that’s really interesting because you see, in my mind, I thought organised labor had become less of a powerful tool for the Democrats.
Organised Labor Still Matters
BK
I would agree with you that relative to the fifties through the seventies, the strength of organised labor has diminished quite a bit. But within the Democratic Party nominating process, they still remain one of the two cohesive forces. And you know, as the manufacturers trades unions have diminished, the government workers and the teacher’s unions have gotten stronger. And those are very strong unions in the United States, in Iowa as well. If you don’t have union support it’s hard to compete in the urban areas.
Most Republicans are strong outside of the cities, they always run rural strategies.
The Big Issue that could Hit Trump
NW
As an outsider in a way, I’m a bit confused. So really, you approach Iowa as you would approach anywhere else. Don’t you take into account any particular local issues?
BK
No, that’s not true. You don’t want to be on the wrong side of ethanol. Ethanol is a form of gasoline that gets blended with regular gasoline and it creates a huge demand for corn that’s raised in Iowa in the past. For Trump, I think personally, this will be the most cutting issue for him in the general election.
In Iowa, the EPA, the environmental protection agency sets a level of ethanol of gasoline produced in the United States. They can also grant waivers to oil refineries who can’t get enough corn or for whatever reason they can’t meet their requirements. Those are typically done for small sort of mom and pop refineries. Not big oil companies like Exxon and Mobil and things like that. But Trump’s EPA has been given a huge number of waivers to the big oil companies. And this has created a real sense of betrayal. So you are seeing, Republican Senators, Grassley, and even the Iowa governor separating themselves from Trump, or trying to separate themselves from the EPA.
NW
So just putting it very simply, both Trump’s tariffs policies have hit farmers and the lowering of requirements on big oil producers to include ethanol or the minimum amount of ethanol has hit farmers hard in Iowa.
BK
Very hard. I mean, their income is down 40% -50%. (However the farmers) they seem to be willing, they, the farmers and the rural economy seems to be willing to accept the tariff, (to take) the pain on the tariffs because they feel like China is not playing fair and it’s somehow patriotic if they take the hit, if you will, in order for us to get a better deal at China. But they don’t feel that way about ethanol. Ethanol is getting waivers for domestic oil companies and they (the farmers) feel betrayed.
Health Care — Crucial
NW
So in terms of that message do any of those candidates come across as being stronger from your point of view?
BK
Sanders obviously is strong, you know, he’s against any kind of trade deals, waivers, packages, things of that sort. That doesn’t really matter so much within the Democrat cause; we’re all on kind of the same position of opposing Trump on that, at this point.
The issues that really will divide the Democrats in this election our health care.
Iowa has the second largest insurance state in the country next to Connecticut. Des Moines itself has 30,000 employees in the insurance industry. So when a candidate says, “I want to get rid of insurance”, that’s a mistake. I mean, that doesn’t go over well here, because there’s a lot of people who rely on those jobs, that rely on the insurance industry for jobs.
NW
Okay. So the more centrist candidates are likely to get a look in.
Midwest Reserve and Underdog Candidates
BK
Yes. Yeah. And I think that, you know, in Iowa and the Midwest you have sort of a reserved nature of the personality, if you will. I think they’re a little reluctant when somebody comes along and says, I’m gonna run the biggest program ever.
NW
Can you name your underdog candidate here. Who should we be keeping an eye on?
BK
I think the sleeper candidate is, Amy Klobuchar from Minnesota, the Senator from Minnesota, uh, you know, she speaks Iowan. Her policy proposals are not the biggest, the baddest, most expensive. They’re very sort of middle of the road. And as more people see former vice president (Biden) they starting to feel emboldened and say “ Oh, well, maybe I should look at some other candidate.”
The one to watch I think is Amy Klobuchar.
ENDS
