2022 Senate Election Predictions
Can the Democrats finally overcome the filibuster?
Its about 15 months for the mid-term elections in the United States. Ignoring the jokes of Trump’s August ‘reinstatement’, both Democrats and Republicans have started their ground work. Here are my predictions how the races will pan out and some points of caution Democrats should note to secure the Senate in 2022.
Current Senate Breakdown
With a 50–50 Senate, the vice president should be the kingmaker and cast the tie-breaking vote. However, with the current breakdown of the Democratic Party, that is vested in the hands of the Democrat senator from West Virginia — Joe Manchin
States Due for Election
Here is a map of the states where one of its seats is due for election.
The Prediction
Republican Safe States
Here are the states the Republicans will more than likely retain in 2022. The Democrats should not focus much attention on these states and instead focus on the other states assuming they are on a mission to secure 60 seats, to prevent filibustering of bills. Here are the states:
Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Missouri, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota and Utah
Democrat Safe States
Much like the safe Republican states, the following states are a sure-shot for Democrats. Little to minimum campaigning would be required to secure a win for the following states:
California, Colorado, Connecticut, Hawaii, Illinois, Maryland, New York, Oregon, Vermont and Washington
Lean Republican — Tough to Flip for Democrats
Louisiana — the reason I will not put Louisiana in sure-shot Republican is Louisiana does have a record of voting Democrat in gubernatorial elections. Depending on how many people vote Democrat in New Orleans, there is an outside chance for this seat to flip to the Democrats.
Lean Democrat — Tough to Flip for Republicans
Vermont- this state has consistently voted for Democrat senators and the incumbent Patrick Leahy has been serving since 1974. The reason I would even consider a chance for Republicans is similar to Louisiana for Democrats. In the 2020 election cycle, 66% of the voters voted for Biden while 68.5% of the voters voted for Republican Governor Phil Scott.
New Hampshire- It is a state of predominantly moderate whites. If a Trump cheerleader is the chosen candidate, it is a Democrat guaranteed victory. If it is a moderate Republican candidate like Chris Sununu, there is a chance of New Hampshire flipping red. I will still predict that Democrats will retain the seat, assuming Chris Sununu will run again for governor and a candidate with Trump’s blessings runs.
Toss Up States
Now the the crux of this article — these are states that can go either way. Based on current events and the understanding that senators are elected by the state’s popular vote rather electoral districts, I will make my predictions.
- Alaska — Lisa Murkowski on any other day could’ve won the seat with minimum effort. She has been a responsible senator, saved Obamacare and has been fair in her voting pattern. Her stance has made her one of Trump’s greatest enemies and he has pledged to primary her in Alaska’s race. However, Alaska has ranked-choice voting, which means that if primaried, she would run as an independent and will likely still win. She had managed to emerge victorious back in 2010 after losing the primaries and contesting as a write-in candidate. Verdict: Republican Hold
- Arizona — Mark Kelly is due for election again in 2022. He has been a relatively quiet member of the Senate. The circus caused by the Republicans on the election audit, combined with the growing liberal base of Phoenix Metro Area shall keep this seat blue. Verdict: Democrat Hold
- Florida- The battleground for partisan Pilates. Marco Rubio is due for re-election. Depending on how the Democrats position a candidate, it could go either way. Also, Florida is a state with net positive migration, and mainly Democrat voters moving in. Again, blaming it on Trumpism, I believe the Latin American voters that voted Trump may rethink their positions, along with new state residents. Verdict : Democrat Gain
- Georgia- Not too much to talk about with this state. Trump will be trying to ruin the election for the current Republican Governor Brian Kemp for standing firm on the election verdict. Raphael Warnock is a very likeable man — able to appeal to a minority community and to a greater extent moderately religious Christians. Verdict: Democrat Hold
- Iowa- Incumbent Chuck Grassley will most likely retire, getting the GOP losing on an incumbent advantage. It was a close call in the 2020 elections. I believe as more younger voters have come in and seeing the circus of the lies of the stolen election, there is a chance for a flip. Verdict: Democrat Gain
- Nevada- Another state where the margins are razor thin, but it has gone to Democrats over the past decade. Clark County’s (Las Vegas) voting for Democrats in disproportionately high numbers has helped them retain seats. Now, with the city of Reno growing as a Silicon Valley offshoot, the buffer for Democrats should increase. Verdict: Democrat Hold
- North Carolina — Senator Richard Burr is not seeking re-election, and he was one of the senators who voted to convict Trump on the second impeachment trial. That means there is a very good chance that the Republican candidate who will contest the election would be blessed by Trump — potentially paving way for Ted Cruz 2.0 or Josh Hawley 2.0. The Research Triangle area is becoming increasingly liberal along with Charlotte. Verdict: Democrat Gain
- Ohio — Incumbent Republican Rob Portman will not be seeking re-election. Current Congressman Tim Ryan, who has won 9 successive terms as a House Representative will be running for the seat. A relatively moderate candidate with strong support from the factory workers favors a seat flip. Verdict: Democrat Gain
- Pennsylvania — Again, incumbent Republican Pat Toomey will not be seeking re-election. Based on the track record of 2020, the blue votes coming out of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh shall neutralize the countryside red votes. Also, with one senator already a Democrat, it is more than likely to flip blue. Verdict: Democratic Gain
- Wisconsin — Incumbent Republican Ron Johnson had won the race in 2016. He is undecided if he is to contest again or not. Counterintuitively, this is a seat where Ron Johnson might lose, considering the criticism he has received in dealing with Trump. Based on the 2020 voting pattern, very likely to turn blue. Verdict: Democrat Gain
Expected Outcome
Based on the above assumptions and expected results, the Democrats are set to gain 6 seats, bringing their tally to 56 seats. Unfortunately, the 60 seat goal is out of reach. That being said, with a 56 member Democratic senate, four Republicans — Ben Sasse, Mitt Romney, Lisa Murkowski and Susan Collins are likely to not abuse the filibuster, letting multiple legislation pass through with certain compromise.
What Democrats Should do
- Ignore the progressives, focus on the moderates: As insidious as it sounds, this strategy might actually work. It helped in Arizona and see every reason why it would help the rust belt. Progressives as enraged as they might be will still end up voting Democrats. The choice of them voting Green Party or other fringe elements basically means they would cut Democrat votes — and pave way for Republican victories. As a result, those votes are already in the bag — no point appealing to that base.
- More Sinemas and Manchins, less Warrens and Sanders: This is more of an offshoot to the first point. If Democrats want to retain power and keep the sanity, the answer is not shifting blocks left, but rather accommodating the moderates and right-leaners who are absolutely baffled by the current state of the GOP.
Despite endless hopeful invocations of “but polls show that people like our positions,” the truth is that the Democratic Party has been pulled far enough left that even lots of non-crazy people find us just plain scary — something that Fox News takes vigorous advantage of. From an electoral point of view, the story here is consistent: Democrats have stoked the culture wars by getting more extreme on social issues and Republicans have used this to successfully cleave away a segment of both the non-college white vote and, more recently, the non-college nonwhite vote
Moving to the left may help galvanize the progressive base — which is good! — but if it’s not done with empathy and tact it risks outrunning the vast middle part of the country, which progressive activists seem completely uninterested in talking to. — Kevin Drum (July 3, 2021)
TLDR: Its a Mini Blue Wave
Democrats have the potential to flip 6 seats in the Senate in 2022. While it is not enough to prevent filibustering, the 4 rational Republicans (Collins, Murkowski, Romney and Sasse) shall helped by preventing unwanted filibuster abuse.
