COP27: Once Again, We Did What We Always Do
We just throw money and promises at the problem
I didn’t really have high expectations from COP27, the United Nations Climate Change Conference.
Following marathon negotiations, the international community has agreed to establish a fund to help poorer nations weather the effects of the steadily escalating climate crisis.
In other words, developed countries have agreed to do what amounts to taking responsibility for the consequences of their rampant industrial growth during the past 200 years, consequences that are disproportionately affecting poor nations, especially small island countries facing complete annihilation due to rising sea levels.
For countries such as Tuvalu, which are staring down the barrel of a climate gun, this does seem like justice.
For European countries, which have the relative luxury (and responsibility) of thinking about the day after tomorrow, this decision is far from enough. This becomes clear when considering that, in effect, there hasn’t even been an actual decision yet.
There has been an acknowledgment of the problem, but no specifics as to who will contribute to the new fund and who will benefit from it.
At best, we will be treating the symptoms but ignoring the disease. At worst, COP27 will have produced empty promises that will drown in red tape and endless negotiations about who should contribute more. The historically guilty countries that industrialized early or those who pollute more today?
It’s the first time that wealthy countries acknowledged that their rampant economic growth has had serious consequences for the poorer countries of our planet and that something must be done about this. But this small victory had a price.
It’s keeping quiet about the need to double down on measures to limit greenhouse gas emissions. This is critical, since it seems that we might have underestimated the impact of greenhouse emissions on our climate. If we have, it would offer a good explanation for the way the climate crisis escalation has taken scientists by surprise.
What the COP27 can claim it has achieved is keeping alive the commitments of the Paris agreement, already deemed woefully insufficient to stave off climate disaster.
In 2019, the IPCC indicated that to curb global warming, CO2 emissions needed to be cut by 43 per cent by 2030, compared to 2010 levels, but current climate plans show a 10.6 per cent increase instead.
However, this is an improvement compared to last year’s report, which showed a 13.7 per cent increase by 2030, and a continued raise of emissions after 2030.
“The downward trend in emissions expected by 2030 shows that nations have made some progress this year,” said Simon Stiell, Executive Secretary of UN Climate Change.
“Some progress” in this context is wildly, wildly overstating the gains made.
Yes, of course we need to slash emissions almost by half, but we’re now set to increase them by 3.1 per cent less.
We need to drastically reduce emissions, not increase them more conservatively. If we keep this up we’ll be dead by the end of the century, but by a smaller margin. We’ll still be dead.
That’s the optimistic scenario, by the way.
The one closer to reality is putting the estimate on the expiry date of our civilization at 2040. And it’s closer to reality because it is based on mathematical models, which might not be infallible but are much more fact-based and reliable than magical thinking — such as the one dreaming of infinite growth using finite resources.
It’s not just the climate crisis we need to worry about, but the resource scarcity that is already becoming apparent. These things do not happen in a vacuum. Both are devastating our world, right along with pollution and the much-too-often ignored social cost of all these factors.
The people who will starve due to crop failures, food scarcity, war, and supply-chain disruptions will not just sit and quietly die off. They will leave their homes and migrate to greener pastures, making our current refugee crisis look like a busy day in the park. Countries will go to war over water rights. Countries that previously exported food and vital resources are going to start hoarding them for their own populations. Some of those precious, dwindling resources will be compromised as a result of warfare and social upheaval.
It’s going to be death by a thousand cuts.
The EU is considering raising the target for cutting emissions by a whopping 2 percent for its member countries, from 55 to 57 percent by 2030.
A momentous decision, surely.
It’s maddening to think about what needs to be done in the short time we have and the glacial pace of our progress to get there.
COP27 was a tiny step in the right direction. It has to be followed by a leap forward.
