Dirge of Political Fortune Telling
OK, Now What?
For the past four years, I’ve been self-congratulating myself on my skills as a political fortune teller. You see, I predicted that the 2016 US presidential election would be a coin flip. I gave Mr. Trump a 50% chance of winning — when almost every other pundit said he had no chance.
My basis was that Mr. Trump was tapping into some political force that nobody — not even he — understood. He just bellowed some trumpy rants, role-played some trumpy acts, and got lots of trumpy attention. I could see that his style was resonating with enough people when the Republican primary was down to four challengers — and he was on top. “He’s got a reasonable shot at the president job,” I thought. Man, was I ever right!
Let’s fast forward to 2020. Being so smart, I called a conclusive Biden victory. My basis was that Mr. Trump has bungled the job and enough Americans would see the need for a replacement. In essence, the election was between Trump and Not-Trump. Mr. Biden is a pretty fine Not-Trump. And I thought of those 108m voters who did not vote in 2016. Many of them should have acquired a Not-Trump reason or two to come out of their bubble and cast a vote. They would make the difference.
So I was predicting at least a 55/45 split in popular vote. And that difference should have given a clear enough victory that the Electoral College could not tip. I was even confident of a 60/40 split — even though the polls were not going this far. And if this 108m were really mad — there could be a true blowout of Trumpism. “A small, but interesting, chance,” I thought.
The USA got another coin flip election. I was so wrong!
The future does not look bright for the USA. If Mr. Biden does wind up with the job, he is hobbled by a Senate minority, a partisan Supreme Court, and less-than-unified Democratic caucus who will blame him for not being able to carry the Blue Wave.
With or without Mr. Trump, the Trump base is obviously a powerful political voice that will need a couple of decades to dissipate. They could find a more effective leader. They will easily fall behind their new messiah — who really will know how to shake things up.
So it might be good for the Supreme Court to nullify the vote counts in swing states to hand Mr. Trump the victory. Giving another four years to Mr. Trump might be better than taking a chance on a new political leader rising in the shadows of a Biden presidency. But with Mr. Trump at the helm, expect a blurring line between government institutions and the Republican Party. And here I go again with political fortune telling. When will I ever learn?
So what should Medium political writers and readers and similarly minded Americans do?
The obvious answer is to write more anti-Trump articles and get lots of claps from anti-Trump readers. The reason 48% of 2020 voters who voted for Trump was because we didn’t write and read enough articles, right?
Hundreds and thousands and tens of thousands of hours wasted on Medium and other media platforms only to get a meager and feeble anti-Trump victory. And the Goliath is still lurking and looks quite healthy. The only real winners are those professional careerists making a reasonable wage from punditing the cliff-hanging controversy.
My condolences to those of you who actually spent time on the front lines of the Biden Campaign. Your work is held in my high esteem. It is not easy to be out there in a hostile political world and do those mundane and thankless things to get out the vote. Your cause was indeed noble. Except it didn’t work, did it?
It is time Medium readers and Biden workers to consider a different way.
For the past 23 years, I have been working on an alternative version of democracy. To briefly summarize, it is a system where the likes of Mr. Trump and Ms. Clinton probably won’t get elected or not rise too high. While I think Mr. Biden could have a place, I’m not sure how high he could rise. He seems to be a good listener and collaborator, skills necessary for a successful service in this new democracy.
My book takes about three to four hours to read. Surely you can forego your time on Medium for a week or two inspect these ideas?
I can hear the hoots and hollers already: “This Dave Volek fellow is just trying to plug his book again,” or “Promoting a book is not good Medium etiquette!” or “We should complain to the Medium managers for this writer’s self-promotion.”
And maybe those complaints have already happened. Take heart that my work on Medium does not go very far. From my stats, I would say you might be one of 20 readers who makes it this far. So I am already being appropriately punished.
Just to let you know that my book is totally available for a free read on my website. If you don’t want to pass any money to me or the two corporate entities that are providing a platform for selling my two ebooks, that is totally fine by me. Just read the TDG book! It’s only three or four hours.
From my website, you will also notice there is neither advertising nor requests for financial assistance. If readers like this idea, I ask only for a little time and effort.
And it will be a little time and effort from many average Americans who build this new system. The time and effort can come from what you will spend on writing and reading anti-Trump articles or working on election campaigns or marching peacefully in the streets.
Time and effort is the only way this new system can be built. Only by you — and other like-minded Americans who are willing to put a few hours a month.
If we don’t try this new way, then what is the American future?
Your choice whether future history advances or today’s history repeats itself!
Your choice!
Tiered Democratic Governance
