Qatar 2022: A New World Cup for a New Geopolitical Order
The selection of Qatar to host the 2022 World Cup likely inaugurates a new era in geopolitics and global sports
The natural gas-rich Gulf nation of Qatar was awarded hosting rights for the 2022 FIFA Men’s World Cup in December 2010. A genuine surprise at the time as the bid from the United States was the seeming favorite. The World Cup presented a unique opportunity for the Gulf nation — as well as neighboring United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia — to reintroduce themselves after the intra-Gulf diplomatic crisis which began in 2017. Geographically about the size of Connecticut, Qatar has spent more than $220 billion — more than the total GDP of the nation — for stadiums and associated infrastructure to host the World Cup. If you build it, they will come, as the saying goes.
The month-long 32-team tournament began Sunday with plenty of controversy in the headlines, including LGBTQ rights, accommodation infrastructure, and migrant worker safety. Even weather conditions: The tournament was pushed back from summer to November to avoid the triple-digit Gulf temperatures. Just 48 hours from kickoff, FIFA announced last Friday that beer and alcohol sales would be prohibited at all eight tournament stadiums; alcohol would be available only at hotels, select restaurants, and inside part of the Fan Festival venue located in a Doha city park, away from the stadiums. The conservative Gulf state faced a decision: Enforce long-standing societal norms or accommodate western expectations of leisure and fun. Qatar chose the former.
In many ways, the decision on alcohol is in keeping with a new-found swagger being demonstrated across the Gulf. It shows itself in many dimensions, from oil production to lobbying efforts in Western capitals to golf tournaments.
On a macroeconomic level, 2022 has seen the reemergence of Gulf-based OPEC oil and natural gas exporters as key players in the global economy. Gasoline at $5 per gallon and other rising transportation fuel costs played a key role in soaring consumer inflation this past summer and fall. In October, the OPEC+ alliance demonstrated both unity and resolve by announcing that it will cut oil production by two million barrels a day, to the consternation of many political leaders in the West. Qatar (no longer a member of OPEC) exports oil, too, but it is a leading liquid natural gas (LNG) exporter, critically important as Europe weans itself off fossil fuels from Russia following the invasion of Ukraine.
GCC nations are still allies with the United States on important regional issues, strategic autonomy has nonetheless gained a footing among Gulf Arab states as their investment portfolios expand and their oil export markets shift east toward Asia. By 2020, Saudi Arabia’s top oil export destinations were (in order) China, Japan, India, and South Korea. Less than eight percent of U.S. oil imports now come from Saudi Arabia.
The reality of the U.S.-Gulf relationship(s) is nuanced and will likely further evolve rather than significantly diminish. As one key advisor to president Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed of the United Arab Emirates stated last week during a policy forum, “[While] the UAE has no interest in choosing sides between great powers, our primary strategic relationship remains unequivocally with the United States.”
The Qatar World Cup along with OPEC+ production decisions and the Russian invasion of Ukraine indicate just how much change has occurred in geopolitical affairs over the past year. Sepp Blatter, the former president of FIFA, said in a recent interview that selecting Qatar “was a mistake.” Mistake or not, Qatar will host the most watched (and costliest to date) sporting tournament in the world. There have been onfield surprises, too — Saudi Arabia defeated powerhouse Argentina (2–1) and Japan defeated Germany (2–1). It has been more than three decades since Argentina lost a World Cup opening match. The Gulf region is now awash in pride. Other regional projects, like the mega-city Neom planned for Saudi Arabia, may find new enthusiasm from regional and western investors. Time will tell.
Like it or not, Qatar will reap both the benefits and criticisms of this World Cup event. The selection of Qatar as host has likely created a blueprint for other nations, some quite small, who possess the ambition, foresight, and wealth to dream big.
