Raging Trump Deplorables May Not Matter
It is dangerous that so many in Trumpland are enraged and turning towards violence, but they do not represent most of us
To be sure, we are in a crisis. The term “civil war” was recently trending on Twitter. A crazed Trumper in body armor attacked the FBI and exchanged gunfire with them. Fox News claims this seizure of sensitive government property, based on a legal warrant, executed by an FBI led by Trump’s own appointee, is a “war on the rule of law.” Even elected, mainstream GOP politicians are becoming progressively more provocative and irresponsible, claiming the Democratic administration is a “regime” that is like the “Gestapo.”
Was the raid a mistake?
Some say the raid was a mistake that brings us closer to a “storm,” whether it was legally justified or not, because it has so inflamed the right.
I don’t think so. While even leaders of the GOP have gone full Godwin’s Law on us, the real question is how rational, patriotic people view the issues, not how wild or irresponsible the GOP is willing to be to politicize the raid.
The deplorables are louder, but the soccer moms all vote
Hillary Clinton (not my favorite politician) was correct when she pointed out that there is a hardcore fringe in the GOP she called “deplorables.” That was not a great political move, but her full quote and context were more nuanced and insightful. She pointed out that many or most Republicans are decent, reasonable people, and it’s only the “deplorable” GOP fringe that cannot be won over. Here’s the quote:
Now, some of those folks — they are irredeemable, but thankfully they are not America. But the other basket […] are people who feel that the government has let them down, the economy has let them down, nobody cares about them, nobody worries about what happens to their lives and their futures, and they’re just desperate for change.
— Hillary Clinton (emphasis added)
These decent, sane, disempowered folk do not generally believe QAnon is posting secret political truths or that the Sandy Hook shooting was a hoax and are similarly far less likely to believe that our finest law enforcement officers have joined a deep state conspiracy.
To be sure, there is a large segment of the GOP who are deeply invested in the Trump narrative, and in my experience, they tend to be irrational and difficult to reason with. But that’s not who’s going to determine our government and the future of our republic going forward.
Regular people think more clearly
A strong plurality of people in a poll approved of the FBI raid on Mar-a-Lago — 49% of people approve vs 39% who disapprove. As statistics go, that’s not a huge margin, but as political poll numbers go, 10% is a landslide. This can only get wider as more and more incriminating information comes out about Trump’s handling of sensitive documents.
And at the end of the day, the crazy people out there are not (yet) numerous enough to run the country or determine most elections. Soccer moms are more important than whoever is trending on Twitter.
What integrity sounds like
Even the better media today survive through clicks, and clicks come from stoking out-group animosity. The political implications of every action are therefore brought to the fore, the most extreme comments are highlighted, and content strives to create an emotional response rather than inform.
To take a break from this politico-media swamp (which I wrote about here), it is refreshing and extraordinary for Merrick Garland, a man previously one filibuster away from becoming a Supreme Court Justice, to personify an apolitical commitment to justice:
It is easy to forget that Garland’s values are our national core values (here in the U.S.), until you hear him speak and remember how deeply embedded his perspective is in our culture. Twitter, MSNBC, and Fox News are eroding these older norms, but they persist.
Watch the soccer moms ignore the conspiracy crazies
The raid was not a political act. It highlighted the proper and impartial functioning of our legal system, and a lot of good people are going to be able to tell the difference. We won’t see them on Twitter. They will show up at the polls… where their opinion actually counts.
