The Russian Bear and The Ukrainian Nightingale
Putin’s stratagem in Ukraine
The news is inescapable. Russia will invade Ukraine. Putin has set his sights on the blue-and-gold flag and the third largest country in Europe could be subject to a full land invasion in the coming weeks.
It’s reminiscent of the tragedy befalling Chechnya. A country that had somehow thwarted the Russian army in the early 90’s was forced to kneel by overwhelming force by the early 2000's.
Russian aggression in Eastern Europe is nothing new — and Europe’s hesitancy to go to defend the East is not new either. Even in 2008, when Bush wanted to offer entry into NATO for Ukraine and Georgia, France and Germany stood firm in preventing those two countries from gaining the opportunity. Only months later, Russian troops were rolling into Georgia in thinly veiled attempts to force a regime change. After just12 days, a prospective NATO member was permanently forced to drop any bids to join the organization, and Russia issued a stern warning to the West.
The former Soviet Union would not be allowed to stray too far from the Russian fold.
In the late aughts, Putin announced to the world that Russia was no longer going to cooperate with the West. They began to go back on previously negotiated military agreements, and refused to remove their troops who were occupying Georgia without the government’s consent.
It’s part of a new order Putin wants to push across Europe. A man who was born at the height of the USSR’s power, hoping to return it to its former glory under his control. He’s made sure to display his hand, to Eastern Europe, to NATO, to the world — Russia will not allow the former Soviet Republics to remain independent democracies. They have no freedom of choice, they will remain Russian.
It makes sense that Ukraine is his next target. The most powerful of the ex-Soviet states upon independence, it boasted a nuclear arsenal of almost 2000 warheads, until it disarmed in exchange for security guarantees from the West. It was these security guarantees that Ukraine hoped would protect it from Russian aggression or retaliation after independence, and these security guarantees it asks now.
It would be the jewel in the crown of Putin’s new USSR. Ukraine was one of the first nations in the USSR during its formation in 1922, and nearly 100 years later, Putin eyes it to recreate his empire.
Putin has issued a number of demands to NATO. Refuse Ukraine, Georgia and Moldova entry into NATO, in perpetuity. Pull back security forces from Poland, Romania, and other ex-Soviet states, and in essence, stop protecting Eastern Europe from Russia.
In a vacuum, this may seem reasonable — if it weren’t for the overwhelming public support for NATO in these regions.
Putin is demanding that the West ignore democracy and public opinion in his own question for Russian dominance. In order to recreate the USSR, he demands that NATO abandon its allies, and abandon the people who support it.
It’s no wonder that most of the countries Putin has issued demands to have laughed it off. NATO won’t abandon its member states, and Putin knows that risking all out war with NATO isn’t possible.
And that’s he’s poking at the soft underbelly of Europe and threatening Ukraine. Almost 14 years after former President George W. Bush asked for Ukraine to be considered for NATO membership, the country remains alone. It’s made defense pacts with Poland and Turkey, but at the end, it’s facing down the barrel of a Russian gun alone.
And Putin has already breached the provisions of the disarmament treaty Ukraine signed. Explicitly, Russia promised not to attack Ukraine. And now, 100, 000 Russian troops wait across the border.
To those remembering the “Russian Reset” of 2013, this outcome was not unexpected. Presidential candidate Mitt Romney was ridiculed for his worry of Russia’s growing hostility towards the west — even though he predicted Putin’s ruthlessness.
It’s a battle of propaganda, now. Russia spreads that it is under direct threat from Ukraine, and that any invasion is only in self defense. Ukraine maintains that the country that funded a separatist movement that has ravaged Eastern Ukraine is a threat to their own national sovereignty. All the while, Russia continues to try to press NATO back. Forget about Eastern Europe, let it return to the fold — it’s the message Putin hopes to spread.
To some extent, NATO is standing up to Russia, a welcome change after the ineffective measures that followed the Russian annexation of Crimea. NATO is threatening Russian pipelines should the invasion begin, which could cripple Russia’s already oil dependent economy. NATO members are scrambling supplies to send to Ukraine for it to protect its people. It’s all down to preparation at this point. The ideal time to step in would’ve been 14 years ago, before Russia had begun to set its sights on Eastern Europe. The second best time? 8 years ago, before the annexation of Crimea. But now is as good as time as any for NATO to reaffirm its commitments towards its allies, towards Europe, and towards democracy.
If only Europe had listened when Bush asked, or when Romney had asked. Even now, France attempts to go it alone, trying to establish itself as a dominant power. The European consensus doesn’t seem to be unified in the West, even as the East prepares to fight Russia. Poland, Romania, Estonia, have all experienced the horrors of the Soviet Union, and are in no mood to return to it. Across what had once been the Iron Curtain, France and Germany continue to send mixed signals, sometimes promising stability, sometimes groveling for better terms. Putin has signaled he will take advantage of that, and it’s up to NATO to call it’s bluff. Will it stand by Ukraine in the coming conflict, or will the security guarantees that were promised three decades ago be ignored.
It’s the plight of Ukraine, a plight that Vladimir Putin hopes to exploit, and the West hopes to protect.
