The Russian Rat Is Getting Cornered
And, thus, becoming far more dangerous
So it appears that the Russian army has been taken by surprise by the latest Ukrainian counteroffensive, and seemingly caught unprepared. Barring the possibility that this is a ruse or an actual tactical withdrawal, this has dramatically changed the situation on the ground for Putin.
So, what now?
Putin, in an autobiographical book, told a story about his childhood, where he found out that cornering a rat is a dangerous proposition. This was something that was often quoted in the early stages of the war, although at the time it seemed to apply more to Ukraine, rather than Russia.
After all, Russia had the big stick and made a move against its weaker neighbour.
“There, on that stair landing, I got a quick and lasting lesson in the meaning of the word ‘cornered.’ There were hordes of rats in the front entryway. My friends and I used to chase them around with sticks. Once I spotted a huge rat and pursued it down the hall until I drove it into a corner. It had nowhere to run. Suddenly it lashed around and threw itself at me. I was surprised and frightened. Now the rat was chasing me. It jumped across the landing and down the stairs. Luckily, I was a little faster and I managed to slam the door on its nose.”
Sure, the initial attempt for a quick takeover of Kyiv failed, but then the focus shifted to the East, where Russia supposedly had a bigger advantage. At the time, talk about a “cornered” Putin was quite premature.
We can talk about it now.
Obviously, we can’t take reports of an impending total collapse of the Russian army or a planned coup at face value. There is every possibility that all Putin will do is dig in around the separatist positions and prepare for a long defense.
It’s exactly what the U.S. wants him to do. And barring another spectacular breakthrough by the Ukrainian army, it could be a long stalemate. Unless the requests by President Zelenskyy to NATO for more advanced hardware are met, this is quite likely to happen.
If the additional hardware doesn’t come or if it comes as a trickle, it will prove that the U.S. is looking to turn this into Russia’s Afghanistan Part II. And this is not something that Ukraine should look forward to. A protracted conflict will hurt Russia for sure, but it will hurt Ukraine even more. The war is still on its turf. Bombs and rockets will still be killing civilians. More infrastructure will be damaged or destroyed. Its efforts to rebuild and get back to some semblance of normality will be put on hold.
But even supposing that everything goes south (or north so to speak) for the Russians faster than anticipated and Putin is faced with a clear defeat, one that will be impossible to defend as anything more than a retreat, what then?
He will be truly cornered. And then all bets will be off.
We’ll have to hope that the narrative about the dying, insane dictator is just propaganda because, unlike Hitler to whom he is often compared, Vladimir Putin has a huge nuclear arsenal at his disposal. And even one tactical nuke launched at Ukraine as a reprisal for Russia’s humiliation is one nuke too many.
At the end of WW2, a defeated Adolph Hitler sacrificed everyone he could, even gave anti-tank weapons to children, because he thought that if the Germans failed to defend their motherland, then they were unworthy to live anyway.
He didn’t care.
If Russia’s army proves, as many claim with good reason, to be a paper tiger, then Putin’s only recourse will be his nuclear capabilities. And if he’s really as unhinged as some people believe, then he won’t even care about his own people, unworthy and defeated.
That is the mindset of a man who won’t hesitate to use the ultimate weapon, even on his very own doorstep. I’m not sure why any of this is supposed to be an argument for rather than against antagonizing Putin.
The thought of a nuclear weapon being used again in war after almost 70 years should be a chilling prospect for all of us. It could be the beginning of the end for our entire civilization.
Beware of the cornered rat.
