Why the GOP Struggles to Win the White House
But never the Senate
On November 2, 2020, I became the first and last analyst to forecast Biden will win 306 electoral votes. The underlying factors that doomed Donald Trump in battleground states will remain relevant in 2024 and beyond.
If the GOP stays on the Trump platform, it will most likely take control of the Senate in the future. It may win the House at some point, but it will never win the White House again without Democrats hitting the self-implosion button.
The “isolationist, protectionist, and to a certain extent, nativist” Trump platform that stokes racial resentment has created a ceiling for the GOP to win white voters. And despite the evidence, the GOP has been working overtime to reinforce the ceiling.
The Road to 270
Since 2008, Washington D.C. and forty states voted for the same party. Three states changed their preference during this period but strengthened their partisan leaning since.
Democrats tightened their grip in Washington D.C. and 20 states, lifting 232 electoral votes beyond GOP’s reach. Hillary Clinton, the Democratic…
